Mazda RX-8
Flagged undervalued because asking -29% vs historic sold, inventory -0%, -45% vs 3-yr trend, and -40% vs 2-yr avg.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 19 yr, 41k mi example, ~$8.5K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Did our model work? 36% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 33 scored forecasts: 36% got the direction right, median value error ±70%.
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard gavel in range 7 in 10
We replayed 114 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±26%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 7 in 10 of the time.
| Sold | Car | Our range | Hammer | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-07 | 2006 · 11k mi | $7.1K–$18.8K | $16.5K | ✓ |
| 2026-07-22 | 2009 · 32k mi | $5.5K–$14.5K | $9.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-07-15 | 2004 · 39k mi | $5.4K–$14.3K | $7.3K | ✓ |
| 2026-07-03 | 2009 · 47k mi | $4.9K–$12.9K | $18.3K | ✗ |
| 2026-06-11 | 2006 · 30k mi | $5.6K–$14.7K | $17.0K | ✗ |
| 2026-06-03 | 2004 · 53k mi | $4.7K–$12.3K | $6.7K | ✓ |
| 2026-06-01 | 2004 · 55k mi | $4.6K–$12.1K | $11.3K | ✓ |
| 2026-05-26 | 2009 · 135k mi | $4.0K–$10.7K | $10.8K | ✗ |
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 6 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
| Closes | Car | Source | Our predicted range |
|---|---|---|---|
| open | 2004 | C&B | $4.6K–$15.9K ($8.6K) |
| open | 2006 · 88k mi | ebay | $3.1K–$10.8K ($5.8K) |
| open | 2007 · 63k mi | classic | $3.9K–$13.5K ($7.3K) |
| open | 2006 · 43k mi | classic | $4.8K–$16.5K ($8.9K) |
| open | 2004 · 61k mi | classic | $4.0K–$13.9K ($7.5K) |
| open | 2006 · 121k mi | classic | $3.5K–$11.9K ($6.4K) |
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
| Horizon | Direction | Probability | Confidence | Past accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | UP | 46% | Low | 67% |
| 12 mo | UP | 46% | Low | 36% |
| 24 mo | UP | 45% | Low | 33% |
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. 30-Year Mortgage Rate has historically led it by about 5 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling lower over the next ~12 months (moderate conviction — 52% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by 30-Year Mortgage Rate and LVMH (luxury proxy ADR), though VIX Volatility Index points the other way.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2019
$100K invested 2019-04 → today (7.3 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
What This Market Follows
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
30-Year Mortgage Rate leads by about 5 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.55). Shown shifted forward 5 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Why We Think This
Current Inventory Snapshot
Comparable Markets
| Market | Undervaluation | Appreciation | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nissan 240SX | 41 | 58 | 39 |
| Mitsubishi 3000GT | 64 | 51 | 45 |
| Toyota AE86 | 65 | 61 | 0 |
| Honda S2000 (AP1) | 50 | 52 | 51 |
| Honda S2000 (AP2) | 59 | 39 | 52 |
| Honda S2000 CR (AP2) | 66 | 44 | 22 |
| Toyota Celica Supra (A60) | 53 | 62 | 60 |
| Honda Civic (1996-2001) | 70 | 33 | 52 |
Recent Signals & Alerts
- price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=-4.6)
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-3,302 vs prior
- price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=-48.9)
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-3,302 vs prior
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-3,302 vs prior
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-3,302 vs prior
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.