Mazda RX-8
Flagged undervalued because asking -12% vs historic sold, inventory -0%, and sell-through 96%.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 19 yr, 42k mi example, ~$8.5K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Did our model work? 41% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 34 scored forecasts: 41% got the direction right, median value error ±36%.
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard gavel in range 7 in 10
We replayed 119 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±26%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 7 in 10 of the time.
| Sold | Car | Our range | Hammer | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | 2008 · 28k mi | $5.5K–$14.7K | $19.3K | ✗ |
| 2026-09-03 | 2011 · 95k mi | $3.5K–$9.2K | $10.6K | ✗ |
| 2026-08-31 | 2007 · 92k mi | $3.4K–$8.9K | $7.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-08-27 | 2008 · 72k mi | $3.8K–$9.9K | $5.9K | ✓ |
| 2026-08-26 | 2004 · 24k mi | $5.5K–$14.6K | $10.5K | ✓ |
| 2026-08-07 | 2006 · 11k mi | $6.9K–$18.2K | $16.5K | ✓ |
| 2026-07-22 | 2009 · 32k mi | $5.4K–$14.4K | $9.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-07-15 | 2004 · 39k mi | $5.3K–$13.9K | $7.3K | ✓ |
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 2 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
| Closes | Car | Source | Our predicted range |
|---|---|---|---|
| open | 2004 · 61k mi | classic | $4.0K–$13.9K ($7.5K) |
| open | 2006 · 121k mi | classic | $3.5K–$11.9K ($6.4K) |
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
| Horizon | Direction | Probability | Confidence | Past accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | UP | 50% | Low | 65% |
| 12 mo | DOWN | 49% | Low | 41% |
| 24 mo | DOWN | 48% | Low | 59% |
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. Initial Jobless Claims has historically led it by about 3 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling higher over the next ~12 months (high conviction — 73% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by Initial Jobless Claims and Silver, though Silver points the other way.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2019
$100K invested 2019-04 → today (7.4 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
What This Market Follows
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
Initial Jobless Claims leads by about 3 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.59). Shown shifted forward 3 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Why We Think This
Current Inventory Snapshot
Comparable Markets
| Market | Undervaluation | Appreciation | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nissan 240SX | 38 | 49 | 28 |
| Mitsubishi 3000GT | 57 | 50 | 46 |
| Toyota AE86 | 45 | 45 | 0 |
| Honda S2000 (AP1) | 50 | 55 | 52 |
| Honda S2000 (AP2) | 53 | 55 | 48 |
| Honda S2000 CR (AP2) | 26 | 70 | 55 |
| Toyota Celica Supra (A60) | 19 | 87 | 42 |
| Honda Civic (1996-2001) | 65 | 41 | 60 |
Recent Signals & Alerts
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-2,510 vs prior
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-2,760 vs prior
- price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=6.4)
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-2,510 vs prior
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-2,760 vs prior
- price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=-9.1)
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.