Toyota AE86
Flagged undervalued because asking -21% vs historic sold, sell-through 100%, and -10% vs 2-yr avg.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 39 yr, 146k mi example, ~$14.3K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Did our model work? 25% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 8 scored forecasts: 25% got the direction right, median value error ±82%.
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard gavel in range 7 in 10
We replayed 40 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±29%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 7 in 10 of the time, and we lean slightly low on average.
| Sold | Car | Our range | Hammer | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-28 | 1987 · 25k mi | $10.7K–$27.9K | $20.5K | ✓ |
| 2025-11-17 | 1986 · 183k mi | $7.2K–$18.8K | $15.0K | ✓ |
| 2025-11-16 | 1985 · 70k mi | $8.5K–$22.0K | $25.0K | ✗ |
| 2025-08-28 | 1983 · 4k mi | $21.6K–$56.0K | $19.9K | ✗ |
| 2025-07-17 | 1985 · 146k mi | $12.8K–$33.2K | $24.0K | ✓ |
| 2024-11-13 | 1986 · 171k mi | $13.4K–$34.9K | $14.5K | ✓ |
| 2024-11-06 | 1986 · 178k mi | $13.1K–$34.1K | $29.0K | ✓ |
| 2024-11-01 | 1986 · 229k mi | $11.4K–$29.5K | $28.9K | ✓ |
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 4 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
| Closes | Car | Source | Our predicted range |
|---|---|---|---|
| open | 1983 · 85k mi | ebay | $7.4K–$25.4K ($13.7K) |
| open | 1986 · 155k mi | classic | $6.9K–$23.7K ($12.8K) |
| open | 1983 · 85k mi | ebay | $7.4K–$25.3K ($13.6K) |
| open | 1984 · 60k mi | classic | $7.6K–$26.0K ($14.0K) |
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
| Horizon | Direction | Probability | Confidence | Past accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | UP | 45% | Low | 64% |
| 12 mo | DOWN | 56% | Low | 25% |
| 24 mo | DOWN | 57% | Low | — |
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. Initial Jobless Claims has historically led it by about 6 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
If You’d Bought in 2019
$100K invested 2019-03 → today (7.2 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
What This Market Follows
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
Initial Jobless Claims leads by about 6 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.65). Shown shifted forward 6 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Why We Think This
Current Inventory Snapshot
Comparable Markets
| Market | Undervaluation | Appreciation | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nissan 240SX | 45 | 45 | 45 |
| Mitsubishi 3000GT | 62 | 45 | 49 |
| Honda S2000 (AP1) | 52 | 51 | 54 |
| Honda S2000 (AP2) | 56 | 50 | 52 |
| Honda S2000 CR (AP2) | 4 | 90 | 35 |
| Toyota Celica Supra (A60) | 24 | 78 | 77 |
| Honda Civic (1996-2001) | 71 | 37 | 63 |
| Honda Civic Type R (FK8) | 27 | 83 | 62 |
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.