Toyota AE86
Given the thin data state, this read on the Toyota AE86 market is low-confidence, showing high appreciation momentum at 79.18 and undervaluation at 70.28, alongside very high depreciation risk at 93.5 and overvaluation at 100.0. A volatile market regime is indicated, with a 0.56 probability of a downward trend over 12 months and 0.57 over 24 months, contrasting with a 0.45 probability for an upward trend in the next 6 months. Initial Jobless Claims, with a correlation of -0.66 leading by 6 months, is the strongest leading indicator for this market.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 39 yr, 146k mi example, ~$15.9K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Did our model work? 33% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 9 scored forecasts: 33% got the direction right, median value error ±79%.
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard gavel in range 7 in 10
We replayed 41 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±31%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 7 in 10 of the time, and we lean slightly low on average.
| Sold | Car | Our range | Hammer | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-09 | 1984 · 174k mi | $7.4K–$19.5K | $15.2K | ✓ |
| 2025-11-28 | 1987 · 25k mi | $11.0K–$29.0K | $20.5K | ✓ |
| 2025-11-17 | 1986 · 183k mi | $7.4K–$19.5K | $15.0K | ✓ |
| 2025-11-16 | 1985 · 70k mi | $8.7K–$22.8K | $25.0K | ✗ |
| 2025-08-28 | 1983 · 4k mi | $23.2K–$61.2K | $19.9K | ✗ |
| 2025-07-17 | 1985 · 146k mi | $13.1K–$34.6K | $24.0K | ✓ |
| 2024-11-13 | 1986 · 171k mi | $13.8K–$36.5K | $14.5K | ✓ |
| 2024-11-06 | 1986 · 178k mi | $13.6K–$35.9K | $29.0K | ✓ |
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 3 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
| Closes | Car | Source | Our predicted range |
|---|---|---|---|
| open | 1985 · 111k mi | BaT | $7.9K–$27.3K ($14.7K) |
| open | 1986 · 155k mi | classic | $6.9K–$23.7K ($12.8K) |
| open | 1984 · 60k mi | classic | $7.6K–$26.0K ($14.0K) |
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
| Horizon | Direction | Probability | Confidence | Past accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | UP | 45% | Low | 60% |
| 12 mo | DOWN | 56% | Low | 33% |
| 24 mo | DOWN | 57% | Low | — |
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. Initial Jobless Claims has historically led it by about 6 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling higher over the next ~12 months (low conviction — 18% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by Housing Starts and Bitcoin (USD), though Housing Starts points the other way.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2019
$100K invested 2019-03 → today (7.3 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
What This Market Follows
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
Initial Jobless Claims leads by about 6 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.66). Shown shifted forward 6 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Why We Think This
Current Inventory Snapshot
Comparable Markets
| Market | Undervaluation | Appreciation | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nissan 240SX | 41 | 62 | 48 |
| Mitsubishi 3000GT | 60 | 59 | 38 |
| Honda S2000 (AP1) | 51 | 52 | 53 |
| Honda S2000 (AP2) | 59 | 40 | 52 |
| Honda S2000 CR (AP2) | 52 | 50 | 26 |
| Toyota Celica Supra (A60) | 46 | 83 | 62 |
| Honda Civic (1996-2001) | 71 | 36 | 50 |
| Honda Civic Type R (FK8) | 36 | 74 | 59 |
Recent Signals & Alerts
- price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=4.5)
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.