Toyota AE86
Due to a thin data state, this market read for the Toyota AE86 is low-confidence, indicating extremely high overvaluation at 99.92 and very high depreciation risk at 96.64, with liquidity at 0.21. A flat trend is signaled for 6 months with 0.5 probability, transitioning to a downward trend at 12 months (0.54 probability) and 24 months (0.55 probability), all within a volatile regime. Initial Jobless Claims, with a -0.66 correlation over 6 months, is the strongest leading indicator.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 39 yr, 146k mi example, ~$19.1K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Did our model work? 50% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 10 scored forecasts: 50% got the direction right, median value error ±64%.
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard gavel in range 7 in 10
We replayed 44 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±33%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 7 in 10 of the time, and we lean slightly low on average.
| Sold | Car | Our range | Hammer | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-04 | 1986 · 142k mi | $9.1K–$23.9K | $20.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-07-30 | 1986 · 205k mi | $6.4K–$16.9K | $21.3K | ✗ |
| 2026-07-22 | 1985 · 111k mi | $8.5K–$22.5K | $31.0K | ✗ |
| 2026-07-09 | 1984 · 174k mi | $7.2K–$19.0K | $15.2K | ✓ |
| 2025-11-28 | 1987 · 25k mi | $12.0K–$31.6K | $20.5K | ✓ |
| 2025-11-17 | 1986 · 183k mi | $7.6K–$20.1K | $15.0K | ✓ |
| 2025-11-16 | 1985 · 70k mi | $9.2K–$24.4K | $25.0K | ✗ |
| 2025-08-28 | 1983 · 4k mi | $21.6K–$56.8K | $19.9K | ✗ |
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 2 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
| Closes | Car | Source | Our predicted range |
|---|---|---|---|
| open | 1986 · 172k mi | ebay | $7.7K–$26.4K ($14.3K) |
| open | 1986 · 155k mi | classic | $6.9K–$23.7K ($12.8K) |
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
| Horizon | Direction | Probability | Confidence | Past accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | FLAT | 50% | Low | 69% |
| 12 mo | DOWN | 54% | Low | 50% |
| 24 mo | DOWN | 55% | Low | — |
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. Bitcoin (USD) has historically led it by about 1 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling lower over the next ~12 months (moderate conviction — 56% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by Bitcoin (USD) and Housing Starts, though Unemployment Rate points the other way.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2019
$100K invested 2019-03 → today (7.5 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
What This Market Follows
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
Bitcoin (USD) leads by about 1 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.60). Shown shifted forward 1 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Why We Think This
Current Inventory Snapshot
Comparable Markets
| Market | Undervaluation | Appreciation | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nissan 240SX | 40 | 55 | 36 |
| Mitsubishi 3000GT | 64 | 46 | 43 |
| Honda S2000 (AP1) | 51 | 52 | 53 |
| Honda S2000 (AP2) | 60 | 40 | 52 |
| Honda S2000 CR (AP2) | 63 | 42 | 21 |
| Toyota Celica Supra (A60) | 59 | 57 | 60 |
| Honda Civic (1996-2001) | 72 | 31 | 55 |
| Honda Civic Type R (FK8) | 31 | 71 | 50 |
Recent Signals & Alerts
- price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=-6.1)
- price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=4.7)
- price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=4.5)
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.