Toyota Celica Supra (A60)
Due to the thin data state, this market read for the Toyota Celica Supra (A60) is low-confidence, despite an appreciation momentum score of 88.71. The market currently shows signs of volatility, with a near-term probability of a downward movement at 0.48, shifting to an upward probability of 0.54 at 12 months and 0.56 at 24 months. The High-Yield Bond Spread, correlated at -0.73 over 2 months, is the strongest identified leading indicator.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 40 yr, 97k mi example, ~$20.5K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Did our model work? 56% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 18 scored forecasts: 56% got the direction right, median value error ±33%.
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard gavel in range 7 in 10
We replayed 57 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±32%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 7 in 10 of the time.
| Sold | Car | Our range | Hammer | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-29 | 1983 · 75k mi | $12.0K–$31.5K | $28.8K | ✓ |
| 2026-06-24 | 1984 · 29k mi | $15.5K–$40.8K | $29.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-06-07 | 1986 · 87k mi | $11.4K–$30.0K | $10.2K | ✗ |
| 2026-05-25 | 1984 · 232k mi | $7.3K–$19.2K | $8.3K | ✓ |
| 2026-04-25 | 1982 · 53k mi | $10.9K–$28.7K | $20.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-02-21 | 1984 · 121k mi | $9.9K–$26.1K | $25.0K | ✓ |
| 2025-01-08 | 1983 · 80k mi | $10.3K–$27.2K | $26.8K | ✓ |
| 2024-12-12 | 1985 · 9k mi | $16.6K–$43.8K | $48.0K | ✗ |
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 2 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
| Closes | Car | Source | Our predicted range |
|---|---|---|---|
| open | 1986 · 117k mi | classic | $8.7K–$30.0K ($16.2K) |
| open | 1985 · 134k mi | classic | $9.7K–$33.4K ($18.0K) |
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
| Horizon | Direction | Probability | Confidence | Past accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | DOWN | 48% | Low | 58% |
| 12 mo | UP | 54% | Low | 56% |
| 24 mo | UP | 56% | Low | 0% |
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY) has historically led it by about 2 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
If You’d Bought in 2021
$100K invested 2021-06 → today (5.1 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
What This Market Follows
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY) leads by about 2 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.59). Shown shifted forward 2 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Why We Think This
Current Inventory Snapshot
Comparable Markets
| Market | Undervaluation | Appreciation | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nissan 240SX | 41 | 62 | 48 |
| Mitsubishi 3000GT | 60 | 59 | 38 |
| Toyota AE86 | 69 | 70 | 1 |
| Honda S2000 (AP1) | 51 | 52 | 53 |
| Honda S2000 (AP2) | 59 | 40 | 52 |
| Honda S2000 CR (AP2) | 52 | 50 | 26 |
| Honda Civic (1996-2001) | 71 | 36 | 50 |
| Honda Civic Type R (FK8) | 36 | 74 | 59 |
Recent Signals & Alerts
- price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=-5.9)
- inventory spike Inventory spiked (robust z=3.4)
- inventory spike Inventory spiked (robust z=3.4)
- inventory spike Inventory spiked (robust z=5.4)
- inventory spike Inventory spiked (robust z=5.4)
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.