Toyota Celica Supra (A60)
Showing appreciation momentum: sale prices +4.0%/mo, and +2% vs 12-mo avg.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 40 yr, 97k mi example, ~$16.5K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Did our model work? 43% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 14 scored forecasts: 43% got the direction right, median value error ±52%.
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard gavel in range 7 in 10
We replayed 54 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±26%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 7 in 10 of the time, and we lean slightly low on average.
| Sold | Car | Our range | Hammer | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-25 | 1984 · 232k mi | $8.1K–$21.1K | $8.3K | ✓ |
| 2026-04-25 | 1982 · 53k mi | $13.5K–$35.0K | $20.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-02-21 | 1984 · 121k mi | $9.2K–$24.0K | $25.0K | ✗ |
| 2025-01-08 | 1983 · 80k mi | $9.8K–$25.4K | $26.8K | ✗ |
| 2024-12-12 | 1985 · 9k mi | $16.8K–$43.6K | $48.0K | ✗ |
| 2024-10-29 | 1982 · 36k mi | $10.5K–$27.1K | $7.3K | ✗ |
| 2024-10-02 | 1985 · 124k mi | $9.3K–$24.2K | $17.5K | ✓ |
| 2024-09-12 | 1984 · 54k mi | $10.8K–$27.9K | $21.0K | ✓ |
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 1 open auction in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
| Closes | Car | Source | Our predicted range |
|---|---|---|---|
| open | 1985 · 134k mi | classic | $9.7K–$33.4K ($18.0K) |
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
| Horizon | Direction | Probability | Confidence | Past accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | DOWN | 44% | Low | 50% |
| 12 mo | UP | 60% | Low | 43% |
| 24 mo | UP | 64% | Low | 0% |
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. 10-Year Treasury Yield has historically led it by about 13 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling higher over the next ~12 months (low conviction — 30% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by 10-Year Treasury Yield and Gold (futures), though Trade-Weighted Dollar Index points the other way.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2016
$100K invested 2016-03 → today (10.2 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
What This Market Follows
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
High-Yield Bond Spread leads by about 2 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.73). Shown shifted forward 2 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Why We Think This
Current Inventory Snapshot
Comparable Markets
| Market | Undervaluation | Appreciation | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nissan 240SX | 45 | 45 | 45 |
| Mitsubishi 3000GT | 62 | 45 | 49 |
| Toyota AE86 | 59 | 43 | 0 |
| Honda S2000 (AP1) | 52 | 51 | 54 |
| Honda S2000 (AP2) | 56 | 50 | 52 |
| Honda S2000 CR (AP2) | 4 | 90 | 35 |
| Honda Civic (1996-2001) | 71 | 37 | 63 |
| Honda Civic Type R (FK8) | 27 | 83 | 62 |
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.