Honda Civic (1996-2001)
Flagged undervalued because asking -74% vs historic sold, -40% vs 2-yr avg, and -41% vs 3-yr trend.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 26 yr, 80k mi example, ~$8.9K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Did our model work? 58% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 31 scored forecasts: 58% got the direction right, median value error ±36%.
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard gavel in range 5 in 10
We replayed 119 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±43%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 5 in 10 of the time, and we lean slightly low on average.
| Sold | Car | Our range | Hammer | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-04 | 2000 · 70k mi | $6.3K–$16.5K | $21.3K | ✗ |
| 2026-03-30 | 2000 · 77k mi | $8.0K–$20.7K | $16.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-03-05 | 1998 · 36k mi | $8.8K–$22.9K | $10.5K | ✓ |
| 2026-03-01 | 2000 · 488k mi | $5.3K–$13.8K | $10.3K | ✓ |
| 2026-02-25 | 2000 · 88k mi | $9.1K–$23.5K | $24.9K | ✗ |
| 2026-02-15 | 2000 · 14k mi | $10.9K–$28.2K | $13.5K | ✓ |
| 2026-02-13 | 2000 · 46k mi | $10.2K–$26.4K | $15.5K | ✓ |
| 2025-12-31 | 1998 · 127k mi | $8.8K–$22.8K | $22.4K | ✓ |
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 8 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
| Closes | Car | Source | Our predicted range |
|---|---|---|---|
| open | 1998 | BaT | $4.9K–$17.0K ($9.2K) |
| open | 2000 · 37k mi | classic | $5.4K–$18.5K ($10.0K) |
| open | 1999 · 190k mi | ebay | $3.8K–$13.1K ($7.1K) |
| open | 2000 · 39k mi | classic | $5.3K–$18.4K ($9.9K) |
| open | 1998 | BaT | $4.9K–$17.0K ($9.2K) |
| open | 2000 · 79k mi | classic | $4.8K–$16.6K ($9.0K) |
| open | 1997 · 83k mi | classic | $4.8K–$16.4K ($8.8K) |
| open | 2001 · 88k mi | classic | $4.7K–$16.1K ($8.7K) |
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
| Horizon | Direction | Probability | Confidence | Past accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | UP | 50% | Low | 57% |
| 12 mo | UP | 52% | Low | 58% |
| 24 mo | UP | 53% | Low | 42% |
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. Housing Starts has historically led it by about 5 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling lower over the next ~12 months (high conviction — 100% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by Initial Jobless Claims and Housing Starts.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2021
$100K invested 2021-03 → today (5.2 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
What This Market Follows
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
Housing Starts leads by about 5 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.58). Shown shifted forward 5 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Why We Think This
Current Inventory Snapshot
Comparable Markets
| Market | Undervaluation | Appreciation | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nissan 240SX | 45 | 45 | 45 |
| Mitsubishi 3000GT | 62 | 45 | 49 |
| Toyota AE86 | 59 | 43 | 0 |
| Honda S2000 (AP1) | 52 | 51 | 54 |
| Honda S2000 (AP2) | 56 | 50 | 52 |
| Honda S2000 CR (AP2) | 4 | 90 | 35 |
| Toyota Celica Supra (A60) | 24 | 78 | 77 |
| Honda Civic Type R (FK8) | 27 | 83 | 62 |
Recent Signals & Alerts
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-3,361 vs prior
- undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-3,361 vs prior
- undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-3,361 vs prior
- undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.