Nissan 240SX
Flagged undervalued because sell-through 100%, -14% vs 2-yr avg, and -11% vs 3-yr trend.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 32 yr, 115k mi example, ~$14.3K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Did our model work? 63% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 30 scored forecasts: 63% got the direction right, median value error ±20%.
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard gavel in range 8 in 10
We replayed 97 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±22%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 8 in 10 of the time, and we lean slightly high on average.
| Sold | Car | Our range | Hammer | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-04 | 1992 · 186k mi | $7.5K–$19.6K | $15.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-04-30 | 1989 · 209k mi | $7.3K–$19.0K | $11.6K | ✓ |
| 2026-04-30 | 1989 · 250k mi | $6.1K–$20.8K | $11.6K | ✓ |
| 2026-04-24 | 1992 · 39k mi | $9.3K–$24.3K | $14.5K | ✓ |
| 2026-04-20 | 1998 · 78k mi | $9.1K–$23.7K | $19.2K | ✓ |
| 2026-04-14 | 1998 · 85k mi | $8.8K–$22.8K | $26.0K | ✗ |
| 2026-02-05 | 1989 · 166k mi | $8.2K–$21.2K | $11.2K | ✓ |
| 2026-01-05 | 1997 · 78k mi | $9.8K–$25.5K | $11.6K | ✓ |
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 8 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
| Closes | Car | Source | Our predicted range |
|---|---|---|---|
| open | 1997 · 72k mi | classic | $8.1K–$27.7K ($15.0K) |
| open | 1996 | classic | $7.5K–$25.8K ($13.9K) |
| open | 1992 · 0k mi | classic | $12.3K–$42.1K ($22.7K) |
| open | 1995 | ebay | $7.5K–$25.8K ($13.9K) |
| open | 1991 · 93k mi | classic | $7.2K–$24.8K ($13.4K) |
| open | 1998 · 190k mi | classic | $6.5K–$22.2K ($12.0K) |
| open | 1995 · 207k mi | ebay | $6.3K–$21.6K ($11.7K) |
| open | 1989 · 83k mi | classic | $7.6K–$26.1K ($14.1K) |
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
| Horizon | Direction | Probability | Confidence | Past accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | DOWN | 52% | Low | 67% |
| 12 mo | UP | 50% | Low | 63% |
| 24 mo | UP | 51% | Low | 61% |
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. High-Yield Bond Spread has historically led it by about 3 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling lower over the next ~12 months (moderate conviction — 53% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by LVMH (luxury proxy ADR) and VIX Volatility Index, though 10-Year Treasury Yield points the other way.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2021
$100K invested 2021-04 → today (5.2 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
What This Market Follows
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
High-Yield Bond Spread leads by about 3 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.71). Shown shifted forward 3 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Why We Think This
Current Inventory Snapshot
Comparable Markets
| Market | Undervaluation | Appreciation | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mitsubishi 3000GT | 62 | 45 | 49 |
| Toyota AE86 | 59 | 43 | 0 |
| Honda S2000 (AP1) | 52 | 51 | 54 |
| Honda S2000 (AP2) | 56 | 50 | 52 |
| Honda S2000 CR (AP2) | 4 | 90 | 35 |
| Toyota Celica Supra (A60) | 24 | 78 | 77 |
| Honda Civic (1996-2001) | 71 | 37 | 63 |
| Honda Civic Type R (FK8) | 27 | 83 | 62 |
Recent Signals & Alerts
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$10,000 vs prior
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-3,000 vs prior
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-3,000 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$10,000 vs prior
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-3,000 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$10,000 vs prior
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.