Mazda MX-5 Miata (ND)
Flagged undervalued because sell-through 100%, asking +2% vs historic sold, +5% vs 3-yr trend, and +5% vs 2-yr avg.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 5 yr, 14k mi example, ~$25.9K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Did our model work? 40% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 35 scored forecasts: 40% got the direction right, median value error ±9%.
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard gavel in range 10 in 10
We replayed 251 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±14%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 10 in 10 of the time, and we lean slightly high on average.
| Sold | Car | Our range | Hammer | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | 2019 · 15k mi | $16.2K–$42.7K | $30.5K | ✓ |
| 2026-09-03 | 2019 · 20k mi | $15.6K–$41.3K | $20.5K | ✓ |
| 2026-09-01 | 2019 · 14k mi | $16.3K–$43.1K | $25.8K | ✓ |
| 2026-08-30 | 2023 · 3k mi | $19.0K–$50.2K | $30.5K | ✓ |
| 2026-08-14 | 2020 · 48k mi | $12.2K–$32.3K | $20.9K | ✓ |
| 2026-08-13 | 2021 · 3k mi | $19.0K–$50.2K | $25.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-08-08 | 2016 · 44k mi | $12.7K–$33.6K | $16.8K | ✓ |
| 2026-08-05 | 2023 · 24k mi | $14.8K–$39.2K | $31.8K | ✓ |
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 8 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
| Closes | Car | Source | Our predicted range |
|---|---|---|---|
| open | 2020 | C&B | $13.7K–$47.4K ($25.5K) |
| open | 2019 | C&B | $13.8K–$47.4K ($25.5K) |
| open | 2020 · 8k mi | classic | $14.8K–$50.9K ($27.4K) |
| open | 2019 · 24k mi | classic | $12.8K–$43.8K ($23.6K) |
| open | 2016 · 112k mi | classic | $10.1K–$34.8K ($18.8K) |
| open | 2023 · 4k mi | classic | $15.9K–$54.8K ($29.5K) |
| open | 2022 · 15k mi | classic | $13.7K–$47.2K ($25.4K) |
| open | 2016 · 52k mi | classic | $10.3K–$35.5K ($19.2K) |
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
| Horizon | Direction | Probability | Confidence | Past accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | DOWN | 55% | Moderate | 49% |
| 12 mo | DOWN | 54% | Moderate | 40% |
| 24 mo | DOWN | 53% | Moderate | 22% |
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. High-Yield Bond Spread has historically led it by about 8 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling higher over the next ~12 months (high conviction — 100% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by Bitcoin (USD) and Core CPI (ex food/energy).
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2021
$100K invested 2021-07 → today (5.2 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
What This Market Follows
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
High-Yield Bond Spread leads by about 8 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.62). Shown shifted forward 8 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Why We Think This
Current Inventory Snapshot
Comparable Markets
| Market | Undervaluation | Appreciation | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nissan 240SX | 38 | 49 | 28 |
| Mitsubishi 3000GT | 57 | 50 | 46 |
| Toyota AE86 | 45 | 45 | 0 |
| Honda S2000 (AP1) | 50 | 55 | 52 |
| Honda S2000 (AP2) | 53 | 55 | 48 |
| Honda S2000 CR (AP2) | 26 | 70 | 55 |
| Toyota Celica Supra (A60) | 19 | 87 | 42 |
| Honda Civic (1996-2001) | 65 | 41 | 60 |
Recent Signals & Alerts
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-8,915 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$2,990 vs prior
- undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
- price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=-7.1)
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-8,915 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$2,990 vs prior
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.