Mazda MX-5 Miata (NC)
Flagged undervalued because -51% vs 2-yr avg, -54% vs 3-yr trend, asking -9% vs historic sold, and sell-through 100%.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 17 yr, 42k mi example, ~$14.0K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Did our model work? 46% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 37 scored forecasts: 46% got the direction right, median value error ±28%.
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard gavel in range 9 in 10
We replayed 198 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±19%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 9 in 10 of the time, and we lean slightly high on average.
| Sold | Car | Our range | Hammer | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-16 | 2006 · 122k mi | $6.3K–$16.7K | $10.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-07-15 | 2006 · 1k mi | $16.3K–$43.0K | $24.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-07-15 | 2008 · 60k mi | $8.3K–$22.0K | $17.2K | ✓ |
| 2026-07-13 | 2006 · 65k mi | $8.1K–$21.4K | $8.8K | ✓ |
| 2026-07-09 | 2007 · 11k mi | $11.7K–$30.9K | $16.2K | ✓ |
| 2026-06-29 | 2006 · 72k mi | $7.7K–$20.3K | $19.5K | ✓ |
| 2026-06-29 | 2008 · 5k mi | $12.4K–$32.8K | $18.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-06-26 | 2010 · 31k mi | $9.7K–$25.6K | $19.8K | ✓ |
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 8 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
| Closes | Car | Source | Our predicted range |
|---|---|---|---|
| open | 2011 | hagerty | $7.6K–$26.0K ($14.0K) |
| open | 2007 · 45k mi | classic | $7.6K–$26.1K ($14.1K) |
| open | 2010 | C&B | $7.6K–$26.0K ($14.0K) |
| open | 2009 · 87k mi | classic | $5.9K–$20.4K ($11.0K) |
| open | 2010 · 120k mi | classic | $5.5K–$19.0K ($10.3K) |
| open | 2009 · 98k mi | classic | $5.5K–$18.8K ($10.2K) |
| open | 2012 | C&B | $7.6K–$26.0K ($14.0K) |
| open | 2008 | C&B | $7.5K–$25.8K ($13.9K) |
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
| Horizon | Direction | Probability | Confidence | Past accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | UP | 46% | Low | 58% |
| 12 mo | UP | 46% | Low | 46% |
| 24 mo | UP | 45% | Low | 28% |
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. Trade-Weighted Dollar Index has historically led it by about 8 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling lower over the next ~12 months (low conviction — 29% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by Trade-Weighted Dollar Index and LVMH (luxury proxy ADR), though Housing Starts points the other way.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2021
$100K invested 2021-06 → today (5.1 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
What This Market Follows
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
Trade-Weighted Dollar Index leads by about 8 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.63). Shown shifted forward 8 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Why We Think This
Current Inventory Snapshot
Comparable Markets
| Market | Undervaluation | Appreciation | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nissan 240SX | 41 | 62 | 48 |
| Mitsubishi 3000GT | 60 | 59 | 38 |
| Toyota AE86 | 69 | 70 | 1 |
| Honda S2000 (AP1) | 51 | 52 | 53 |
| Honda S2000 (AP2) | 59 | 40 | 52 |
| Honda S2000 CR (AP2) | 52 | 50 | 26 |
| Toyota Celica Supra (A60) | 46 | 83 | 62 |
| Honda Civic (1996-2001) | 71 | 36 | 50 |
Recent Signals & Alerts
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$3,039 vs prior
- undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$3,039 vs prior
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-2,685 vs prior
- price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=-22.9)
- undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.