Mazda MX-5 Miata (NC)
Flagged undervalued because asking -11% vs historic sold, sell-through 100%, -27% vs 3-yr trend, and -25% vs 2-yr avg.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 17 yr, 41k mi example, ~$13.5K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Did our model work? 48% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 33 scored forecasts: 48% got the direction right, median value error ±15%.
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard gavel in range 9 in 10
We replayed 178 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±16%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 9 in 10 of the time.
| Sold | Car | Our range | Hammer | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-18 | 2008 · 109k mi | $6.2K–$16.2K | $11.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-05-08 | 2011 · 85k mi | $6.6K–$17.1K | $11.1K | ✓ |
| 2026-05-06 | 2006 · 28k mi | $9.8K–$25.4K | $12.5K | ✓ |
| 2026-05-01 | 2012 · 61k mi | $8.0K–$20.7K | $17.5K | ✓ |
| 2026-04-29 | 2008 · 79k mi | $6.9K–$18.0K | $12.3K | ✓ |
| 2026-04-24 | 2015 · 21k mi | $10.5K–$27.2K | $30.0K | ✗ |
| 2026-04-23 | 2008 · 12k mi | $11.5K–$29.9K | $17.8K | ✓ |
| 2026-04-22 | 2006 · 89k mi | $6.4K–$16.6K | $10.0K | ✓ |
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 8 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
| Closes | Car | Source | Our predicted range |
|---|---|---|---|
| open | 2011 · 131k mi | classic | $5.7K–$19.6K ($10.6K) |
| open | 2006 · 1k mi | ebay | $12.6K–$43.3K ($23.3K) |
| open | 2007 | C&B | $7.7K–$26.5K ($14.3K) |
| open | 2006 · 116k mi | ebay | $5.6K–$19.2K ($10.3K) |
| open | 2008 · 46k mi | classic | $7.5K–$25.7K ($13.8K) |
| open | 2006 · 126k mi | classic | $5.9K–$20.1K ($10.9K) |
| open | 2007 · 43k mi | classic | $7.6K–$26.1K ($14.1K) |
| open | 2010 · 83k mi | classic | $5.8K–$19.9K ($10.7K) |
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
| Horizon | Direction | Probability | Confidence | Past accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | UP | 46% | Low | 54% |
| 12 mo | UP | 46% | Low | 48% |
| 24 mo | UP | 46% | Low | 48% |
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. Trade-Weighted Dollar Index has historically led it by about 8 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling lower over the next ~12 months (moderate conviction — 52% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by Trade-Weighted Dollar Index and VIX Volatility Index, though Housing Starts points the other way.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2020
$100K invested 2020-07 → today (5.9 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
What This Market Follows
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
Trade-Weighted Dollar Index leads by about 8 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.55). Shown shifted forward 8 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Why We Think This
Current Inventory Snapshot
Comparable Markets
| Market | Undervaluation | Appreciation | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nissan 240SX | 45 | 45 | 45 |
| Mitsubishi 3000GT | 62 | 45 | 49 |
| Toyota AE86 | 59 | 43 | 0 |
| Honda S2000 (AP1) | 52 | 51 | 54 |
| Honda S2000 (AP2) | 56 | 50 | 52 |
| Honda S2000 CR (AP2) | 4 | 90 | 35 |
| Toyota Celica Supra (A60) | 24 | 78 | 77 |
| Honda Civic (1996-2001) | 71 | 37 | 63 |
Recent Signals & Alerts
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$5,800 vs prior
- undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$2,810 vs prior
- undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$2,810 vs prior
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-3,186 vs prior
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.