Mazda MX-5 Miata (NB)
Flagged undervalued because sell-through 99%, asking -0% vs historic sold, -23% vs 3-yr trend, and -18% vs 2-yr avg.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 24 yr, 62k mi example, ~$9.7K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Did our model work? 45% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 44 scored forecasts: 45% got the direction right, median value error ±20%.
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard gavel in range 9 in 10
We replayed 331 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±17%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 9 in 10 of the time, and we lean slightly high on average.
| Sold | Car | Our range | Hammer | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-15 | 2001 · 75k mi | $5.9K–$15.5K | $8.7K | ✓ |
| 2026-07-13 | 2001 · 199k mi | $5.0K–$13.3K | $6.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-07-08 | 2003 · 31k mi | $7.4K–$19.5K | $21.0K | ✗ |
| 2026-07-06 | 1999 · 10k mi | $9.2K–$24.2K | $17.8K | ✓ |
| 2026-07-02 | 1999 · 108k mi | $5.4K–$14.4K | $6.3K | ✓ |
| 2026-07-01 | 2003 · 199k mi | $5.0K–$13.3K | $5.8K | ✓ |
| 2026-06-29 | 1999 · 38k mi | $7.2K–$18.9K | $15.5K | ✓ |
| 2026-06-24 | 2001 · 38k mi | $7.2K–$18.9K | $17.5K | ✓ |
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 8 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
| Closes | Car | Source | Our predicted range |
|---|---|---|---|
| open | 1999 · 57k mi | ebay | $5.4K–$18.5K ($10.0K) |
| open | 2001 | C&B | $5.3K–$18.1K ($9.8K) |
| open | 2000 · 153k mi | ebay | $4.4K–$15.2K ($8.2K) |
| open | 1999 | C&B | $5.3K–$18.1K ($9.8K) |
| open | 2003 · 57k mi | ebay | $5.5K–$18.6K ($10.1K) |
| open | 2001 · 100k mi | classic | $4.7K–$16.2K ($8.7K) |
| open | 2003 · 44k mi | ebay | $5.9K–$20.2K ($10.9K) |
| open | 2002 · 30k mi | classic | $6.4K–$22.1K ($11.9K) |
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
| Horizon | Direction | Probability | Confidence | Past accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | UP | 45% | Low | 60% |
| 12 mo | FLAT | 50% | Low | 45% |
| 24 mo | DOWN | 56% | Low | 31% |
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. 10-Year Treasury Yield has historically led it by about 5 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
If You’d Bought in 2021
$100K invested 2021-03 → today (5.4 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
What This Market Follows
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
Silver leads by about 8 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.56). Shown shifted forward 8 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Why We Think This
Current Inventory Snapshot
Comparable Markets
| Market | Undervaluation | Appreciation | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nissan 240SX | 41 | 58 | 39 |
| Mitsubishi 3000GT | 64 | 51 | 45 |
| Toyota AE86 | 65 | 61 | 0 |
| Honda S2000 (AP1) | 50 | 52 | 51 |
| Honda S2000 (AP2) | 59 | 39 | 52 |
| Honda S2000 CR (AP2) | 66 | 44 | 22 |
| Toyota Celica Supra (A60) | 53 | 62 | 60 |
| Honda Civic (1996-2001) | 70 | 33 | 52 |
Recent Signals & Alerts
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$3,000 vs prior
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-5,000 vs prior
- undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-5,000 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$3,000 vs prior
- price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=-8.6)
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.