Subaru WRX / Impreza WRX / STI
Flagged undervalued because asking -21% vs historic sold, -42% vs 2-yr avg, sell-through 100%, and -46% vs 3-yr trend.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 19 yr, 81k mi example, ~$16.6K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Did our model work? 37% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 43 scored forecasts: 37% got the direction right, median value error ±23%.
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard gavel in range 8 in 10
We replayed 658 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±25%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 8 in 10 of the time, and we lean slightly high on average.
| Sold | Car | Our range | Hammer | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-30 | 2013 · 85k mi | $10.1K–$26.6K | $20.3K | ✓ |
| 2026-06-30 | 2002 · 102k mi | $8.9K–$23.4K | $9.8K | ✓ |
| 2026-06-29 | 2006 · 127k mi | $7.8K–$20.4K | $7.1K | ✗ |
| 2026-06-25 | 2006 · 34k mi | $17.9K–$47.0K | $43.2K | ✓ |
| 2026-06-24 | 2004 · 20k mi | $20.5K–$53.9K | $34.8K | ✓ |
| 2026-06-24 | 2014 · 138k mi | $7.4K–$19.5K | $7.8K | ✓ |
| 2026-06-23 | 2007 · 21k mi | $20.4K–$53.7K | $50.6K | ✓ |
| 2026-06-23 | 2010 · 86k mi | $10.1K–$26.5K | $13.6K | ✓ |
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 8 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
| Closes | Car | Source | Our predicted range |
|---|---|---|---|
| open | 2001 | C&B | $9.0K–$30.8K ($16.6K) |
| open | 2011 · 158k mi | classic | $6.0K–$20.5K ($11.0K) |
| open | 2014 · 44k mi | classic | $13.4K–$46.1K ($24.9K) |
| open | 2006 · 77k mi | classic | $9.2K–$31.6K ($17.0K) |
| open | 2009 · 130k mi | classic | $6.5K–$22.4K ($12.1K) |
| open | 2012 · 64k mi | classic | $10.7K–$36.7K ($19.8K) |
| open | 2011 · 161k mi | classic | $6.0K–$20.7K ($11.1K) |
| open | 2011 · 114k mi | classic | $7.1K–$24.4K ($13.1K) |
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
| Horizon | Direction | Probability | Confidence | Past accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | UP | 44% | Low | 73% |
| 12 mo | UP | 44% | Low | 37% |
| 24 mo | UP | 42% | Low | 16% |
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling higher over the next ~12 months (moderate conviction — 54% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by Ethereum (USD) and Advance Retail Sales, though Ethereum (USD) points the other way.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2021
$100K invested 2021-03 → today (5.3 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
What This Market Follows
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
Silver leads by about 3 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.65). Shown shifted forward 3 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Why We Think This
Current Inventory Snapshot
Comparable Markets
| Market | Undervaluation | Appreciation | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nissan 240SX | 37 | 75 | 44 |
| Mitsubishi 3000GT | 59 | 70 | 39 |
| Toyota AE86 | 79 | 94 | 61 |
| Honda S2000 (AP1) | 52 | 51 | 53 |
| Honda S2000 (AP2) | 60 | 39 | 52 |
| Honda S2000 CR (AP2) | 50 | 58 | 24 |
| Toyota Celica Supra (A60) | 37 | 98 | 50 |
| Honda Civic (1996-2001) | 75 | 36 | 52 |
Recent Signals & Alerts
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-4,000 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$3,000 vs prior
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-3,404 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$3,000 vs prior
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-3,404 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$5,100 vs prior
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.