Subaru WRX / Impreza WRX / STI
Flagged undervalued because asking -28% vs historic sold, -47% vs 2-yr avg, and -50% vs 3-yr trend.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 19 yr, 80k mi example, ~$16.6K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Did our model work? 43% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 44 scored forecasts: 43% got the direction right, median value error ±27%.
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard gavel in range 8 in 10
We replayed 671 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±25%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 8 in 10 of the time, and we lean slightly high on average.
| Sold | Car | Our range | Hammer | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05 | 2012 · 104k mi | $8.4K–$22.3K | $18.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-08-04 | 1996 · 112k mi | $8.0K–$21.0K | $26.0K | ✗ |
| 2026-07-30 | 2014 · 98k mi | $9.0K–$23.8K | $15.1K | ✓ |
| 2026-07-27 | 1998 · 51k mi | $14.1K–$37.3K | $31.3K | ✓ |
| 2026-07-24 | 2011 · 141k mi | $6.9K–$18.3K | $7.4K | ✓ |
| 2026-07-22 | 1999 · 57k mi | $13.2K–$34.8K | $23.3K | ✓ |
| 2026-07-22 | 2014 · 115k mi | $8.0K–$21.2K | $18.5K | ✓ |
| 2026-07-21 | 2012 · 75k mi | $11.1K–$29.3K | $27.0K | ✓ |
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 8 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
| Closes | Car | Source | Our predicted range |
|---|---|---|---|
| open | 2012 · 105k mi | ebay | $7.2K–$24.8K ($13.4K) |
| open | 2005 | C&B | $9.0K–$30.7K ($16.6K) |
| open | 2012 · 105k mi | ebay | $7.1K–$24.4K ($13.2K) |
| open | 2001 · 36k mi | classic | $14.2K–$48.5K ($26.2K) |
| open | 2001 · 60k mi | classic | $10.9K–$37.3K ($20.2K) |
| open | 2001 · 89k mi | classic | $8.1K–$27.7K ($15.0K) |
| open | 2014 · 78k mi | classic | $9.3K–$31.7K ($17.2K) |
| open | 2011 · 78k mi | classic | $9.1K–$31.2K ($16.9K) |
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
| Horizon | Direction | Probability | Confidence | Past accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | UP | 45% | Low | 72% |
| 12 mo | UP | 44% | Low | 43% |
| 24 mo | UP | 42% | Low | 16% |
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
If You’d Bought in 2021
$100K invested 2021-03 → today (5.4 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
What This Market Follows
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
Silver leads by about 3 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.62). Shown shifted forward 3 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Why We Think This
Current Inventory Snapshot
Comparable Markets
| Market | Undervaluation | Appreciation | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nissan 240SX | 41 | 58 | 39 |
| Mitsubishi 3000GT | 64 | 51 | 45 |
| Toyota AE86 | 65 | 61 | 0 |
| Honda S2000 (AP1) | 50 | 52 | 51 |
| Honda S2000 (AP2) | 59 | 39 | 52 |
| Honda S2000 CR (AP2) | 66 | 44 | 22 |
| Toyota Celica Supra (A60) | 53 | 62 | 60 |
| Honda Civic (1996-2001) | 70 | 33 | 52 |
Recent Signals & Alerts
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-5,071 vs prior
- price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=6.5)
- undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
- inventory spike Inventory spiked (robust z=4.1)
- undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$4,000 vs prior
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.