Tracking 11 sales in the last 90 days — the modeled signal will appear here on the next nightly rebuild.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 31 yr, 89k mi example, ~$10.7K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Building historyNot enough data to chart yet — check back as sales accrue.
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 23 scored forecasts: 39% got the direction right, median value error ±141%.
Track record buildingNot enough graded forecasts yet to show accuracy.
━ actual╱ past predictions (ghosts)
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard gavel in range 5 in 10
We replayed 53 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±41%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 5 in 10 of the time, and we lean slightly low on average.
Sold
Car
Our range
Hammer
2026-09-09
1995 · 1k mi
$12.2K–$32.2K
$45.0K
✗
2026-08-27
1994 · 181k mi
$3.8K–$10.1K
$7.7K
✓
2026-08-23
1993 · 215k mi
$4.0K–$10.4K
$13.5K
✗
2026-08-04
1992 · 52k mi
$6.5K–$17.1K
$13.8K
✓
2026-07-15
1993 · 68k mi
$6.0K–$15.8K
$13.0K
✓
2026-07-10
1992 · 162k mi
$3.0K–$10.2K
$6.4K
✓
2026-05-20
1994 · 119k mi
$3.8K–$10.0K
$17.5K
✗
2026-04-01
1993 · 63k mi
$5.8K–$15.4K
$19.0K
✗
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 4 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
Closes
Car
Source
Our predicted range
open
1994 · 240k mi
ebay
$4.3K–$14.7K ($7.9K)
open
1993
classic
$4.1K–$14.2K ($7.7K)
open
1992 · 26k mi
classic
$4.9K–$16.8K ($9.0K)
open
1993
classic
$3.9K–$13.3K ($7.2K)
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. U. Michigan Consumer Sentiment has historically led it by about 12 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
BECAUSE consumer sentiment fell 11%. THEREFORE, given its usual 12-month head start, we expect little change — about −0% (≈ −$30) over the next 12 months. Confidence: High (correlation -0.71, 33 months overlap).
If You’d Bought in 2021
$100K invested 2021-03 → today (5.5 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
━ This car $302K━ S&P 500 $213K━ Gold $255K━ Luxury $88.0K━ Housing $138K₿ Bitcoin $132K (off-scale)
A genuinely strong investment. The Honda Civic (1992-1995) roughly 3.0×'d your money (a real, inflation-adjusted 2.4× gain). It actually BEAT the S&P 500 by about 42%. It beat housing (+119%). (Price only — a real round-trip also loses ~10–20% to buy/sell fees and carrying costs.)
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
PCE Price Index leads by about 0 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.74). Shown shifted forward 0 months so its turns line up with the market's.
U. Michigan Consumer Sentiment leads by about 12 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.71). Shown shifted forward 12 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Honda Civic (1992-1995)┄ U. Michigan Consumer Sentiment, shifted +12mo
Bitcoin (USD) leads by about 4 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.69). Shown shifted forward 4 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY) leads by about 24 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.69). Shown shifted forward 24 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Nasdaq Composite leads by about 24 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.68). Shown shifted forward 24 months so its turns line up with the market's.
CPI (All Urban Consumers) leads by about 0 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.68). Shown shifted forward 0 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
