Honda Civic (1992-1995)
Flagged undervalued because -80% vs 3-yr trend, -76% vs 2-yr avg, inventory -1%, and sell-through 95%.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 31 yr, 90k mi example, ~$9.3K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Did our model work? 30% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 23 scored forecasts: 30% got the direction right, median value error ±191%.
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard gavel in range 5 in 10
We replayed 50 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±42%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 5 in 10 of the time, and we lean slightly low on average.
| Sold | Car | Our range | Hammer | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-04 | 1992 · 52k mi | $6.5K–$17.2K | $13.8K | ✓ |
| 2026-07-15 | 1993 · 68k mi | $5.9K–$15.6K | $13.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-07-10 | 1992 · 162k mi | $3.0K–$10.2K | $6.4K | ✓ |
| 2026-05-20 | 1994 · 119k mi | $3.7K–$9.8K | $17.5K | ✗ |
| 2026-04-01 | 1993 · 63k mi | $5.8K–$15.3K | $19.0K | ✗ |
| 2026-03-19 | 1995 · 86k mi | $5.0K–$13.1K | $7.1K | ✓ |
| 2026-03-15 | 1994 · 122k mi | $3.9K–$10.2K | $18.5K | ✗ |
| 2025-12-28 | 1992 · 21k mi | $6.6K–$17.4K | $12.7K | ✓ |
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 6 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
| Closes | Car | Source | Our predicted range |
|---|---|---|---|
| open | 1995 | classic | $5.0K–$17.0K ($9.2K) |
| open | 1993 · 63k mi | classic | $4.7K–$16.1K ($8.7K) |
| open | 1993 | classic | $4.1K–$14.2K ($7.7K) |
| open | 1994 · 69k mi | classic | $4.2K–$14.6K ($7.9K) |
| open | 1992 · 26k mi | classic | $4.9K–$16.8K ($9.0K) |
| open | 1993 | classic | $3.9K–$13.3K ($7.2K) |
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
| Horizon | Direction | Probability | Confidence | Past accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | UP | 44% | Low | 62% |
| 12 mo | UP | 42% | Low | 30% |
| 24 mo | UP | 39% | Low | 18% |
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. Russell 2000 (small cap) has historically led it by about 5 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling lower over the next ~12 months (low conviction — 25% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by Russell 2000 (small cap) and WTI Crude Oil, though 10Y-2Y Yield Spread points the other way.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2021
$100K invested 2021-03 → today (5.4 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
What This Market Follows
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
Russell 2000 (small cap) leads by about 5 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.60). Shown shifted forward 5 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Why We Think This
Current Inventory Snapshot
Comparable Markets
| Market | Undervaluation | Appreciation | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nissan 240SX | 41 | 58 | 39 |
| Mitsubishi 3000GT | 64 | 51 | 45 |
| Toyota AE86 | 65 | 61 | 0 |
| Honda S2000 (AP1) | 50 | 52 | 51 |
| Honda S2000 (AP2) | 59 | 39 | 52 |
| Honda S2000 CR (AP2) | 66 | 44 | 22 |
| Toyota Celica Supra (A60) | 53 | 62 | 60 |
| Honda Civic (1996-2001) | 70 | 33 | 52 |
Recent Signals & Alerts
- inventory shortage Inventory dropped (robust z=-3.5)
- inventory shortage Inventory dropped (robust z=-5.6)
- inventory shortage Inventory dropped (robust z=-5.9)
- inventory shortage Inventory dropped (robust z=-6.7)
- inventory shortage Inventory dropped (robust z=-8.1)
- inventory shortage Inventory dropped (robust z=-10.4)
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.