Honda Civic Type R (FK8)
This market outlook for the Honda Civic Type R (FK8) is based on a low-confidence read due to thin data. Despite an appreciation momentum score of 74.93 and a depreciation risk score of 27.48, the market registers an overvaluation score of 67.88. The 6, 12, and 24-month forecasts indicate a "down" direction with probabilities of 0.49, 0.48, and 0.47 respectively, within a volatile regime, with Ethereum (USD) showing a correlation of 0.81 over 24 months as a top leading indicator.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 4 yr, 17k mi example, ~$35.3K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Did our model work? 26% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 19 scored forecasts: 26% got the direction right, median value error ±56%.
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard gavel in range 10 in 10
We replayed 52 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±13%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 10 in 10 of the time, and we lean slightly high on average.
| Sold | Car | Our range | Hammer | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 | 2019 · 3k mi | $29.8K–$78.4K | $60.5K | ✓ |
| 2026-07-21 | 2023 · 8k mi | $28.5K–$74.9K | $40.3K | ✓ |
| 2026-07-20 | 2021 · 28k mi | $23.1K–$60.8K | $33.8K | ✓ |
| 2026-06-22 | 2023 · 28k mi | $22.8K–$60.0K | $39.8K | ✓ |
| 2026-06-12 | 2018 · 126k mi | $15.6K–$41.1K | $19.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-06-04 | 2019 · 53k mi | $18.8K–$49.5K | $30.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-05-20 | 2019 · 53k mi | $18.8K–$49.5K | $27.5K | ✓ |
| 2026-04-30 | 2018 · 16k mi | $25.2K–$66.5K | $38.3K | ✓ |
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 8 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
| Closes | Car | Source | Our predicted range |
|---|---|---|---|
| open | 2020 · 33k mi | classic | $19.4K–$66.5K ($35.9K) |
| open | 2021 · 98k mi | classic | $15.9K–$54.7K ($29.5K) |
| open | 2020 · 15k mi | classic | $22.0K–$75.5K ($40.7K) |
| open | 2019 · 69k mi | classic | $16.3K–$55.9K ($30.2K) |
| open | 2020 · 40k mi | classic | $18.2K–$62.6K ($33.8K) |
| open | 2019 · 35k mi | classic | $19.0K–$65.2K ($35.2K) |
| open | 2018 · 33k mi | classic | $19.2K–$66.1K ($35.6K) |
| open | 2021 · 49k mi | classic | $17.3K–$59.5K ($32.1K) |
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
| Horizon | Direction | Probability | Confidence | Past accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | DOWN | 49% | Low | 40% |
| 12 mo | DOWN | 48% | Low | 26% |
| 24 mo | DOWN | 46% | Low | 0% |
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. Ethereum (USD) has historically led it by about 24 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling higher over the next ~12 months (high conviction — 100% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by Silver and Nonfarm Payrolls (jobs).
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2021
$100K invested 2021-05 → today (5.3 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
What This Market Follows
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY) leads by about 0 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.87). Shown shifted forward 0 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Why We Think This
Current Inventory Snapshot
Comparable Markets
| Market | Undervaluation | Appreciation | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nissan 240SX | 40 | 55 | 36 |
| Mitsubishi 3000GT | 64 | 46 | 43 |
| Toyota AE86 | 60 | 59 | 0 |
| Honda S2000 (AP1) | 51 | 52 | 53 |
| Honda S2000 (AP2) | 60 | 40 | 52 |
| Honda S2000 CR (AP2) | 63 | 42 | 21 |
| Toyota Celica Supra (A60) | 59 | 57 | 60 |
| Honda Civic (1996-2001) | 72 | 31 | 55 |
Recent Signals & Alerts
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-4,225 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$8,501 vs prior
- undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$7,060 vs prior
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-4,225 vs prior
- undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.