Honda Civic Type R (FK8)
Flagged undervalued because asking -14% vs historic sold, and sell-through 100%.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 4 yr, 17k mi example, ~$32.3K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Did our model work? 33% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 15 scored forecasts: 33% got the direction right, median value error ±44%.
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard gavel in range 10 in 10
We replayed 47 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±13%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 10 in 10 of the time, and we lean slightly high on average.
| Sold | Car | Our range | Hammer | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-20 | 2019 · 53k mi | $17.6K–$45.7K | $27.5K | ✓ |
| 2026-04-30 | 2018 · 16k mi | $23.3K–$60.5K | $38.3K | ✓ |
| 2026-04-24 | 2018 · 44k mi | $18.4K–$47.7K | $32.8K | ✓ |
| 2026-04-23 | 2018 · 17k mi | $23.0K–$59.7K | $36.3K | ✓ |
| 2026-03-18 | 2023 · 11k mi | $25.4K–$65.9K | $28.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-02-06 | 2019 · 26k mi | $21.4K–$55.6K | $35.6K | ✓ |
| 2026-02-04 | 2023 · 28k mi | $21.0K–$54.6K | $47.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-02-02 | 2023 · 58k mi | $17.9K–$46.5K | $34.4K | ✓ |
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 8 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
| Closes | Car | Source | Our predicted range |
|---|---|---|---|
| open | 2018 · 70k mi | classic | $14.8K–$50.8K ($27.4K) |
| open | 2019 · 45k mi | classic | $15.9K–$54.6K ($29.5K) |
| open | 2018 · 56k mi | classic | $15.3K–$52.5K ($28.3K) |
| open | 2020 · 82k mi | classic | $14.4K–$49.6K ($26.7K) |
| open | 2019 · 110k mi | classic | $13.7K–$47.2K ($25.5K) |
| open | 2021 · 23k mi | classic | $18.9K–$64.9K ($35.0K) |
| open | 2023 · 46k mi | classic | $15.9K–$54.5K ($29.4K) |
| open | 2023 · 23k mi | classic | $18.7K–$64.2K ($34.6K) |
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
| Horizon | Direction | Probability | Confidence | Past accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | DOWN | 50% | Low | 43% |
| 12 mo | DOWN | 48% | Low | 33% |
| 24 mo | DOWN | 47% | Low | 0% |
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. Ethereum (USD) has historically led it by about 24 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling higher over the next ~12 months (high conviction — 100% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by Silver and Nonfarm Payrolls (jobs).
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2021
$100K invested 2021-05 → today (5.1 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
What This Market Follows
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
Bitcoin (USD) leads by about 0 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.79). Shown shifted forward 0 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Why We Think This
Current Inventory Snapshot
Comparable Markets
| Market | Undervaluation | Appreciation | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nissan 240SX | 45 | 45 | 45 |
| Mitsubishi 3000GT | 62 | 45 | 49 |
| Toyota AE86 | 59 | 43 | 0 |
| Honda S2000 (AP1) | 52 | 51 | 54 |
| Honda S2000 (AP2) | 56 | 50 | 52 |
| Honda S2000 CR (AP2) | 4 | 90 | 35 |
| Toyota Celica Supra (A60) | 24 | 78 | 77 |
| Honda Civic (1996-2001) | 71 | 37 | 63 |
Recent Signals & Alerts
- undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$10,388 vs prior
- undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
- undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$6,475 vs prior
- undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.