Jeep Grand Cherokee (WK2)
Flagged undervalued because inventory -0%, and -19% vs 2-yr avg.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 11 yr, 45k mi example, ~$17.1K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Did our model work? 13% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 8 scored forecasts: 13% got the direction right, median value error ±43%.
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard live
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 8 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
| Closes | Car | Source | Our predicted range |
|---|---|---|---|
| open | 2018 · 97k mi | ebay | $6.8K–$26.4K ($13.4K) |
| open | 2021 · 74k mi | ebay | $8.0K–$31.4K ($15.9K) |
| open | 2021 · 24k mi | ebay | $10.4K–$40.7K ($20.6K) |
| open | 2021 · 34k mi | ebay | $9.2K–$35.9K ($18.2K) |
| open | 2020 · 74k mi | ebay | $8.0K–$31.4K ($15.9K) |
| open | 2020 · 81k mi | ebay | $7.6K–$29.8K ($15.1K) |
| open | 2017 · 143k mi | ebay | $5.8K–$22.6K ($11.4K) |
| open | 2021 · 60k mi | ebay | $9.0K–$35.0K ($17.7K) |
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
| Horizon | Direction | Probability | Confidence | Past accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | UP | 39% | Low | 43% |
| 12 mo | DOWN | 63% | Low | 13% |
| 24 mo | DOWN | 66% | Low | — |
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. Initial Jobless Claims has historically led it by about 1 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling lower over the next ~12 months (moderate conviction — 50% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by 10-Year Treasury Yield and Dow Jones Industrial, though 10-Year Treasury Yield points the other way.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2025
$100K invested 2025-07 → today (1.0 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
What This Market Follows
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
High-Yield Bond Spread leads by about 8 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.71). Shown shifted forward 8 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Why We Think This
Current Inventory Snapshot
Comparable Markets
| Market | Undervaluation | Appreciation | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|
| Land Rover Defender 90 (Euro Spec) | 44 | 61 | 43 |
| Porsche Cayenne (958) 2011-2018 | 64 | 31 | 50 |
| Honda Acty | 50 | 53 | 57 |
| Subaru Baja | 59 | 45 | 49 |
| BMW F650GS | 45 | 42 | 36 |
| BMW R1250GS | 60 | 46 | 54 |
| Ford Bronco (2nd Generation) | 64 | 36 | 47 |
| Ford Bronco (3rd Generation, 1980-1986) | 61 | 57 | 30 |
Recent Signals & Alerts
- price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=4.4)
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$4,794 vs prior
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-5,380 vs prior
- undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$3,549 vs prior
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-5,380 vs prior
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.