Porsche Cayenne (958) 2011-2018
Flagged undervalued because asking -22% vs historic sold, and sell-through 100%.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 11 yr, 90k mi example, ~$21.3K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Did our model work? 33% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 39 scored forecasts: 33% got the direction right, median value error ±7%.
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard gavel in range 9 in 10
We replayed 1,207 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±18%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 9 in 10 of the time.
| Sold | Car | Our range | Hammer | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-29 | 2016 · 112k mi | $11.2K–$32.3K | $41.0K | ✗ |
| 2026-05-28 | 2016 · 39k mi | $19.2K–$55.1K | $26.9K | ✓ |
| 2026-05-28 | 2011 · 54k mi | $16.6K–$47.8K | $18.5K | ✓ |
| 2026-05-27 | 2013 · 132k mi | $9.7K–$27.8K | $15.5K | ✓ |
| 2026-05-26 | 2014 · 128k mi | $10.0K–$28.6K | $18.3K | ✓ |
| 2026-05-26 | 2013 · 138k mi | $9.3K–$26.8K | $12.3K | ✓ |
| 2026-05-24 | 2017 · 90k mi | $13.2K–$37.8K | $15.8K | ✓ |
| 2026-05-23 | 2016 · 69k mi | $12.3K–$46.5K | $15.0K | ✓ |
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 8 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
| Closes | Car | Source | Our predicted range |
|---|---|---|---|
| open | 2015 | BaT | $11.0K–$41.3K ($21.3K) |
| open | 2014 | BaT | $11.0K–$41.3K ($21.3K) |
| open | 2013 | C&B | $11.0K–$41.3K ($21.3K) |
| open | 2014 · 148k mi | ebay | $7.3K–$27.7K ($14.3K) |
| open | 2014 | BaT | $11.0K–$41.4K ($21.3K) |
| open | 2013 | BaT | $11.0K–$41.4K ($21.3K) |
| open | 2011 | C&B | $11.0K–$41.4K ($21.3K) |
| open | 2012 · 51k mi | classic | $14.2K–$53.5K ($27.5K) |
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
| Horizon | Direction | Probability | Confidence | Past accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | DOWN | 59% | Moderate | 76% |
| 12 mo | DOWN | 59% | Moderate | 33% |
| 24 mo | DOWN | 60% | Moderate | 30% |
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. High-Yield Bond Spread has historically led it by about 7 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling higher over the next ~12 months (high conviction — 100% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by 10Y-2Y Yield Spread and Gold (futures).
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2016
$100K invested 2016-03 → today (10.2 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
What This Market Follows
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
High-Yield Bond Spread leads by about 7 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.71). Shown shifted forward 7 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Why We Think This
Current Inventory Snapshot
Comparable Markets
| Market | Undervaluation | Appreciation | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|
| Land Rover Defender 90 (Euro Spec) | 41 | 67 | 47 |
| Honda Acty | 53 | 43 | 50 |
| Subaru Baja | 53 | 68 | 51 |
| BMW R1250GS | 61 | 36 | 75 |
| Ford Bronco (2nd Generation) | 36 | 51 | 41 |
| Ford Bronco (3rd Generation, 1980-1986) | 70 | 38 | 31 |
| Ford Bronco Raptor | 38 | 68 | 33 |
Recent Signals & Alerts
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-6,000 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$17,700 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$17,700 vs prior
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-6,000 vs prior
- undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-3,500 vs prior
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.