Porsche Cayenne (958) 2011-2018
The Porsche Cayenne (958) 2011-2018 market currently indicates higher depreciation risk at 57.62 and lower appreciation momentum at 41.85, despite an undervaluation score of 56.88. Forecasts suggest a potential downward trend with 0.59 probability over 12 months and 0.6 probability over 24 months, both within a volatile regime. A key leading indicator for this market is the High-Yield Bond Spread, exhibiting a strong 0.77 correlation at a 19-month lead.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 11 yr, 91k mi example, ~$20.2K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Did our model work? 38% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 50 scored forecasts: 38% got the direction right, median value error ±7%.
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard gavel in range 9 in 10
We replayed 1,318 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±19%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 9 in 10 of the time, and we lean slightly high on average.
| Sold | Car | Our range | Hammer | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-21 | 2014 · 42k mi | $17.4K–$50.5K | $39.3K | ✓ |
| 2026-09-21 | 2014 · 78k mi | $13.0K–$37.7K | $16.8K | ✓ |
| 2026-09-20 | 2016 · 143k mi | $8.4K–$24.3K | $16.3K | ✓ |
| 2026-09-18 | 2015 · 130k mi | $9.1K–$26.3K | $15.5K | ✓ |
| 2026-09-18 | 2013 · 108k mi | $10.6K–$30.8K | $8.0K | ✗ |
| 2026-09-17 | 2014 · 24k mi | $19.6K–$56.9K | $40.8K | ✓ |
| 2026-09-17 | 2014 · 130k mi | $9.1K–$26.4K | $21.3K | ✓ |
| 2026-09-16 | 2016 · 92k mi | $11.9K–$34.6K | $14.8K | ✓ |
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 8 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
| Closes | Car | Source | Our predicted range |
|---|---|---|---|
| open | 2016 · 31k mi | BaT | $15.7K–$61.8K ($31.1K) |
| open | 2015 | C&B | $10.2K–$40.2K ($20.2K) |
| open | 2011 · 152k mi | ebay | $6.7K–$26.5K ($13.4K) |
| open | 2015 | C&B | $10.2K–$40.2K ($20.2K) |
| open | 2013 · 95k mi | BaT | $10.0K–$39.2K ($19.8K) |
| open | 2016 · 134k mi | BaT | $7.4K–$29.3K ($14.7K) |
| open | 2011 · 232k mi | ebay | $5.3K–$21.0K ($10.6K) |
| open | 2011 | C&B | $10.1K–$40.0K ($20.1K) |
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
| Horizon | Direction | Probability | Confidence | Past accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | UP | 41% | Moderate | 66% |
| 12 mo | DOWN | 59% | Moderate | 38% |
| 24 mo | DOWN | 60% | Moderate | 32% |
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. High-Yield Bond Spread has historically led it by about 11 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
If You’d Bought in 2020
$100K invested 2020-01 → today (6.8 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
What This Market Follows
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
High-Yield Bond Spread leads by about 11 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.61). Shown shifted forward 11 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Why We Think This
Current Inventory Snapshot
Comparable Markets
| Market | Undervaluation | Appreciation | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|
| Land Rover Defender 90 (Euro Spec) | 54 | 50 | 45 |
| Honda Acty | 44 | 51 | 57 |
| Subaru Baja | 54 | 61 | 51 |
| BMW F650GS | 89 | 7 | 50 |
| BMW R1250GS | 54 | 39 | 49 |
| Ford Bronco (2nd Generation) | 63 | 35 | 55 |
| Ford Bronco (3rd Generation, 1980-1986) | 51 | 61 | 41 |
| Ford Bronco Raptor | 43 | 37 | 42 |
Recent Signals & Alerts
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-5,090 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$16,505 vs prior
- undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-5,090 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$16,505 vs prior
- undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.