Porsche Cayenne (958) 2011-2018
The Porsche Cayenne (958) 2011-2018 market currently signals undervaluation at 64.72 and a depreciation risk of 61.55, with appreciation momentum standing at 33.71. Near-term forecasts indicate a volatile regime with probabilities around 0.5 for an upward direction over 6, 12, and 24 months. The strongest leading indicator for this market is the High-Yield Bond Spread, showing a 0.77 correlation with a 19-month lead.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 11 yr, 90k mi example, ~$20.8K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Did our model work? 42% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 62 scored forecasts: 42% got the direction right, median value error ±71%.
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard gavel in range 9 in 10
We replayed 1,267 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±19%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 9 in 10 of the time, and we lean slightly high on average.
| Sold | Car | Our range | Hammer | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-16 | 2013 · 78k mi | $13.3K–$38.6K | $16.5K | ✓ |
| 2026-07-16 | 2015 · 135k mi | $9.0K–$26.2K | $13.5K | ✓ |
| 2026-07-16 | 2012 · 154k mi | $8.1K–$23.7K | $9.3K | ✓ |
| 2026-07-14 | 2018 · 22k mi | $20.0K–$58.1K | $44.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-07-14 | 2017 · 117k mi | $10.2K–$29.7K | $22.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-07-14 | 2014 · 158k mi | $8.0K–$23.2K | $9.1K | ✓ |
| 2026-07-13 | 2016 · 54k mi | $15.8K–$45.8K | $43.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-07-13 | 2015 · 106k mi | $11.2K–$32.4K | $28.8K | ✓ |
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 8 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
| Closes | Car | Source | Our predicted range |
|---|---|---|---|
| open | 2014 · 83k mi | classic | $11.0K–$42.4K ($21.6K) |
| open | 2011 · 86k mi | BaT | $10.8K–$41.7K ($21.2K) |
| open | 2014 | C&B | $10.6K–$40.9K ($20.8K) |
| open | 2013 · 108k mi | classic | $9.3K–$36.1K ($18.4K) |
| open | 2012 · 65k mi | classic | $12.3K–$47.5K ($24.2K) |
| open | 2016 · 123k mi | ebay | $8.3K–$32.2K ($16.4K) |
| open | 2017 · 47k mi | classic | $14.4K–$55.5K ($28.3K) |
| open | 2016 · 54k mi | classic | $13.5K–$52.0K ($26.5K) |
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
| Horizon | Direction | Probability | Confidence | Past accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | UP | 48% | Low | 37% |
| 12 mo | UP | 49% | Low | 42% |
| 24 mo | UP | 50% | Low | 26% |
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. Case-Shiller National Home Price has historically led it by about 8 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
If You’d Bought in 2016
$100K invested 2016-01 → today (10.5 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
What This Market Follows
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
High-Yield Bond Spread leads by about 19 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.77). Shown shifted forward 19 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Why We Think This
Current Inventory Snapshot
Comparable Markets
| Market | Undervaluation | Appreciation | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|
| Land Rover Defender 90 (Euro Spec) | 43 | 58 | 46 |
| Honda Acty | 52 | 53 | 52 |
| Subaru Baja | 65 | 48 | 51 |
| BMW F650GS | 38 | 48 | 51 |
| BMW R1250GS | 56 | 39 | 50 |
| Ford Bronco (2nd Generation) | 53 | 34 | 29 |
| Ford Bronco (3rd Generation, 1980-1986) | 61 | 59 | 37 |
| Ford Bronco Raptor | 41 | 63 | 32 |
Recent Signals & Alerts
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$7,955 vs prior
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-4,026 vs prior
- undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-4,252 vs prior
- price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=-6.4)
- undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.