BMW F650GS
Given the thin data, this is a low-confidence read for the BMW F650GS market. The market signals a high depreciation risk of 82.52 and strong undervaluation at 87.83, alongside very low appreciation momentum at 8.15. Forecasts indicate a downward trend with volatile regimes for the next 6 to 24 months (probabilities around 0.54-0.57), with the Trade-Weighted Dollar Index being the strongest leading indicator (correlation -0.7).
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 21 yr, 9k mi example, ~$3.3K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Did our model work? 33% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 15 scored forecasts: 33% got the direction right, median value error ±194%.
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
| Horizon | Direction | Probability | Confidence | Past accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | UP | 43% | Low | 29% |
| 12 mo | UP | 41% | Low | 33% |
| 24 mo | FLAT | 50% | Low | 33% |
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. Core CPI (ex food/energy) has historically led it by about 11 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling lower over the next ~12 months (low conviction — 23% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by Core CPI (ex food/energy) and Housing Starts, though Core CPI (ex food/energy) points the other way.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2012
$100K invested 2012-07 → today (14.2 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
What This Market Follows
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
Core CPI (ex food/energy) leads by about 11 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.59). Shown shifted forward 11 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Why We Think This
Current Inventory Snapshot
Comparable Markets
| Market | Undervaluation | Appreciation | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|
| Land Rover Defender 90 (Euro Spec) | 54 | 53 | 44 |
| Porsche Cayenne (958) 2011-2018 | 57 | 42 | 49 |
| Honda Acty | 52 | 40 | 56 |
| Subaru Baja | 44 | 68 | 52 |
| BMW R1250GS | 52 | 33 | 44 |
| Ford Bronco (2nd Generation) | 57 | 49 | 60 |
| Ford Bronco (3rd Generation, 1980-1986) | 65 | 39 | 47 |
| Ford Bronco Raptor | 43 | 35 | 39 |
Recent Signals & Alerts
- inventory shortage Inventory dropped (robust z=-3.4)
- price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=5.7)
- price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=-4.8)
- inventory spike Inventory spiked (robust z=3.6)
- inventory spike Inventory spiked (robust z=3.0)
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.