Subaru Baja
Given the "thin" data state, this market outlook for the Subaru Baja is low-confidence. Data signals moderate depreciation risk at 57.52 and some undervaluation at 58.53, while appreciation momentum is at 46.93. A downward trend with probabilities of 0.55 at 12 months and 0.57 at 24 months is indicated, operating within a volatile regime, with the Personal Savings Rate being the strongest leading indicator at a -0.86 correlation with a 19-month lead.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 20 yr, 79k mi example, ~$14.1K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Did our model work? 19% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 26 scored forecasts: 19% got the direction right, median value error ±110%.
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard gavel in range 8 in 10
We replayed 72 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±27%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 8 in 10 of the time.
| Sold | Car | Our range | Hammer | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-04 | 2006 · 173k mi | $4.7K–$13.6K | $8.1K | ✓ |
| 2026-07-27 | 2006 · 155k mi | $4.7K–$13.6K | $10.1K | ✓ |
| 2026-07-24 | 2005 · 98k mi | $7.4K–$21.6K | $14.9K | ✓ |
| 2026-07-17 | 2006 · 118k mi | $6.4K–$18.7K | $8.6K | ✓ |
| 2026-07-01 | 2005 · 51k mi | $7.7K–$22.5K | $18.3K | ✓ |
| 2026-06-23 | 2005 · 118k mi | $5.9K–$17.1K | $16.8K | ✓ |
| 2026-06-16 | 2004 · 79k mi | $6.9K–$20.1K | $22.0K | ✗ |
| 2026-05-29 | 2006 · 171k mi | $4.4K–$12.7K | $8.6K | ✓ |
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 1 open auction in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
| Closes | Car | Source | Our predicted range |
|---|---|---|---|
| open | 2003 · 126k mi | classic | $5.3K–$20.4K ($10.4K) |
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
| Horizon | Direction | Probability | Confidence | Past accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | UP | 46% | Low | 50% |
| 12 mo | DOWN | 55% | Low | 19% |
| 24 mo | DOWN | 57% | Low | 7% |
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. WTI Crude Oil has historically led it by about 3 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling higher over the next ~12 months (high conviction — 75% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by WTI Crude Oil and Personal Savings Rate, though Ethereum (USD) points the other way.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2017
$100K invested 2017-11 → today (8.8 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
What This Market Follows
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
WTI Crude Oil leads by about 3 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.77). Shown shifted forward 3 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Why We Think This
Current Inventory Snapshot
Comparable Markets
| Market | Undervaluation | Appreciation | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|
| Land Rover Defender 90 (Euro Spec) | 50 | 59 | 42 |
| Porsche Cayenne (958) 2011-2018 | 33 | 68 | 49 |
| Honda Acty | 51 | 50 | 56 |
| BMW F650GS | 66 | 25 | 39 |
| BMW R1250GS | 53 | 43 | 36 |
| Ford Bronco (2nd Generation) | 64 | 36 | 49 |
| Ford Bronco (3rd Generation, 1980-1986) | 61 | 50 | 45 |
| Ford Bronco Raptor | 30 | 51 | 32 |
Recent Signals & Alerts
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$8,001 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$26,649 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$8,038 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$26,000 vs prior
- price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=5.0)
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$26,000 vs prior
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.