Subaru Baja
A low-confidence read for the Subaru Baja market, given its thin data state, shows an undervaluation score of 64.18 and a depreciation risk of 56.18. The 6-month outlook signals an upward direction with a probability of 0.45, while the 12-month and 24-month outlooks point downward with probabilities of 0.56 and 0.58, respectively, all within a volatile regime. The Personal Savings Rate, with a correlation of -0.86, is the strongest leading indicator.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 20 yr, 60k mi example, ~$14.4K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Did our model work? 21% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 24 scored forecasts: 21% got the direction right, median value error ±149%.
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard gavel in range 8 in 10
We replayed 69 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±29%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 8 in 10 of the time, and we lean slightly high on average.
| Sold | Car | Our range | Hammer | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-01 | 2005 · 51k mi | $7.8K–$22.7K | $18.3K | ✓ |
| 2026-06-23 | 2005 · 118k mi | $5.9K–$17.1K | $16.8K | ✓ |
| 2026-06-16 | 2004 · 79k mi | $7.2K–$20.9K | $22.0K | ✗ |
| 2026-05-29 | 2006 · 171k mi | $3.9K–$11.5K | $8.6K | ✓ |
| 2026-04-29 | 2005 · 112k mi | $5.7K–$16.5K | $17.5K | ✗ |
| 2026-04-27 | 2005 · 105k mi | $6.1K–$17.6K | $13.1K | ✓ |
| 2026-04-25 | 2005 · 169k mi | $3.8K–$11.0K | $3.4K | ✗ |
| 2026-04-14 | 2005 · 28k mi | $7.7K–$22.4K | $39.0K | ✗ |
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 8 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
| Closes | Car | Source | Our predicted range |
|---|---|---|---|
| open | 2006 | C&B | $7.3K–$28.3K ($14.4K) |
| open | 2005 | C&B | $7.3K–$28.3K ($14.4K) |
| open | 2006 | C&B | $7.3K–$27.9K ($14.3K) |
| open | 2003 · 92k mi | classic | $6.7K–$25.8K ($13.2K) |
| open | 2006 · 135k mi | classic | $4.9K–$18.7K ($9.5K) |
| open | 2003 · 126k mi | classic | $5.3K–$20.4K ($10.4K) |
| open | 2005 · 89k mi | classic | $6.3K–$23.6K ($12.2K) |
| open | 2003 · 85k mi | classic | $6.3K–$23.7K ($12.2K) |
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
| Horizon | Direction | Probability | Confidence | Past accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | UP | 45% | Low | 53% |
| 12 mo | DOWN | 56% | Low | 21% |
| 24 mo | DOWN | 58% | Low | 0% |
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. WTI Crude Oil has historically led it by about 4 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling higher over the next ~12 months (low conviction — 28% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by WTI Crude Oil and Ethereum (USD), though Case-Shiller Home Price points the other way.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2017
$100K invested 2017-11 → today (8.7 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
What This Market Follows
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
WTI Crude Oil leads by about 4 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.72). Shown shifted forward 4 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Why We Think This
Current Inventory Snapshot
Comparable Markets
| Market | Undervaluation | Appreciation | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|
| Land Rover Defender 90 (Euro Spec) | 43 | 58 | 46 |
| Porsche Cayenne (958) 2011-2018 | 65 | 33 | 52 |
| Honda Acty | 52 | 53 | 52 |
| BMW F650GS | 38 | 48 | 51 |
| BMW R1250GS | 56 | 39 | 50 |
| Ford Bronco (2nd Generation) | 53 | 34 | 29 |
| Ford Bronco (3rd Generation, 1980-1986) | 61 | 59 | 37 |
| Ford Bronco Raptor | 41 | 63 | 32 |
Recent Signals & Alerts
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$3,000 vs prior
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-5,575 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$3,000 vs prior
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-5,575 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$3,000 vs prior
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-5,575 vs prior
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.