Subaru Baja
The market outlook for the Subaru Baja is a low-confidence read due to a 'thin' data state, with appreciation momentum scoring 67.87. The forecast suggests a potential 'down' direction with probabilities ranging from 0.5 to 0.51 across 6, 12, and 24-month horizons within a 'volatile' regime, and the Personal Savings Rate, with a -0.86 correlation and 19-month lead, is identified as the strongest leading indicator.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 20 yr, 79k mi example, ~$12.4K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Did our model work? 40% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 25 scored forecasts: 40% got the direction right, median value error ±88%.
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard gavel in range 8 in 10
We replayed 73 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±27%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 8 in 10 of the time.
| Sold | Car | Our range | Hammer | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-22 | 2004 · 169k mi | $4.7K–$13.8K | $5.4K | ✓ |
| 2026-08-04 | 2006 · 173k mi | $4.6K–$13.4K | $8.1K | ✓ |
| 2026-07-27 | 2006 · 155k mi | $4.6K–$13.2K | $10.1K | ✓ |
| 2026-07-24 | 2005 · 98k mi | $7.3K–$21.2K | $14.9K | ✓ |
| 2026-07-17 | 2006 · 118k mi | $6.3K–$18.4K | $8.6K | ✓ |
| 2026-07-01 | 2005 · 51k mi | $7.6K–$22.1K | $18.3K | ✓ |
| 2026-06-23 | 2005 · 118k mi | $5.7K–$16.6K | $16.8K | ✗ |
| 2026-06-16 | 2004 · 79k mi | $6.8K–$19.6K | $22.0K | ✗ |
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 2 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
| Closes | Car | Source | Our predicted range |
|---|---|---|---|
| open | 2006 · 65k mi | ebay | $6.3K–$24.8K ($12.5K) |
| open | 2004 | C&B | $6.2K–$24.6K ($12.4K) |
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
| Horizon | Direction | Probability | Confidence | Past accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | DOWN | 51% | Low | 48% |
| 12 mo | DOWN | 50% | Low | 40% |
| 24 mo | DOWN | 50% | Low | 31% |
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. Trade-Weighted Dollar Index has historically led it by about 6 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling higher over the next ~12 months (high conviction — 100% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by US Regular Gas Price and Personal Savings Rate.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2017
$100K invested 2017-11 → today (8.9 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
What This Market Follows
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY) leads by about 0 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.80). Shown shifted forward 0 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Why We Think This
Current Inventory Snapshot
Comparable Markets
| Market | Undervaluation | Appreciation | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|
| Land Rover Defender 90 (Euro Spec) | 54 | 50 | 45 |
| Porsche Cayenne (958) 2011-2018 | 59 | 41 | 47 |
| Honda Acty | 44 | 51 | 57 |
| BMW F650GS | 89 | 7 | 50 |
| BMW R1250GS | 54 | 39 | 49 |
| Ford Bronco (2nd Generation) | 63 | 35 | 55 |
| Ford Bronco (3rd Generation, 1980-1986) | 51 | 61 | 41 |
| Ford Bronco Raptor | 43 | 37 | 42 |
Recent Signals & Alerts
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$3,095 vs prior
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-8,000 vs prior
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-8,000 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$3,095 vs prior
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-8,000 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$3,095 vs prior
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.