Lamborghini Urus
Flagged undervalued because inventory -0%, and asking +3% vs historic sold.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 3 yr, 10k mi example, ~$226K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Did our model work? 31% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 16 scored forecasts: 31% got the direction right, median value error ±15%.
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard gavel in range 10 in 10
We replayed 52 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±11%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 10 in 10 of the time, and we lean slightly low on average.
| Sold | Car | Our range | Hammer | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | 2023 · 10k mi | $134K–$389K | $261K | ✓ |
| 2026-09-07 | 2024 · 10k mi | $132K–$385K | $264K | ✓ |
| 2026-08-20 | 2025 · 1k mi | $153K–$444K | $272K | ✓ |
| 2026-08-19 | 2021 · 16k mi | $115K–$333K | $169K | ✓ |
| 2026-08-12 | 2019 · 71k mi | $114K–$330K | $111K | ✗ |
| 2026-08-06 | 2023 · 5k mi | $142K–$412K | $271K | ✓ |
| 2026-07-20 | 2025 · 11k mi | $128K–$371K | $323K | ✓ |
| 2026-07-15 | 2023 · 9k mi | $135K–$391K | $266K | ✓ |
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 8 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
| Closes | Car | Source | Our predicted range |
|---|---|---|---|
| open | 2025 · 6k mi | ebay | $126K–$497K ($250K) |
| open | 2025 · 4k mi | ebay | $129K–$508K ($256K) |
| open | 2025 · 4k mi | ebay | $129K–$508K ($256K) |
| open | 2022 · 18k mi | ebay | $99.3K–$392K ($197K) |
| open | 2025 · 4k mi | ebay | $129K–$508K ($256K) |
| open | 2022 · 28k mi | ebay | $92.6K–$365K ($184K) |
| open | 2021 · 28k mi | ebay | $92.6K–$365K ($184K) |
| open | 2025 · 4k mi | ebay | $129K–$508K ($256K) |
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
| Horizon | Direction | Probability | Confidence | Past accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | DOWN | 53% | Low | 64% |
| 12 mo | DOWN | 50% | Low | 31% |
| 24 mo | FLAT | 50% | Low | 0% |
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY) has historically led it by about 7 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling higher over the next ~12 months (high conviction — 100% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by VIX Volatility Index and High-Yield Bond Spread.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2022
$100K invested 2022-06 → today (4.3 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
What This Market Follows
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY) leads by about 7 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.78). Shown shifted forward 7 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Why We Think This
Current Inventory Snapshot
Comparable Markets
| Market | Undervaluation | Appreciation | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|
| Land Rover Defender 90 (Euro Spec) | 54 | 50 | 45 |
| Porsche Cayenne (958) 2011-2018 | 59 | 41 | 47 |
| Honda Acty | 44 | 51 | 57 |
| Subaru Baja | 54 | 61 | 51 |
| BMW F650GS | 89 | 7 | 50 |
| BMW R1250GS | 54 | 39 | 49 |
| Ford Bronco (2nd Generation) | 63 | 35 | 55 |
| Ford Bronco (3rd Generation, 1980-1986) | 51 | 61 | 41 |
Recent Signals & Alerts
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$31,012 vs prior
- undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$31,012 vs prior
- undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$31,012 vs prior
- undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.