Toyota Tundra XK30/XK40 (2000-2006)
Flagged undervalued because asking -49% vs historic sold, inventory -0%, and +2% vs 2-yr avg.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 21 yr, 74k mi example, ~$15.6K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Did our model work? 36% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 36 scored forecasts: 36% got the direction right, median value error ±18%.
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard gavel in range 9 in 10
We replayed 180 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±25%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 9 in 10 of the time.
| Sold | Car | Our range | Hammer | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-20 | 2001 · 101k mi | $7.2K–$20.7K | $26.8K | ✗ |
| 2026-09-15 | 2003 · 45k mi | $10.0K–$29.1K | $27.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-09-02 | 2004 · 151k mi | $5.8K–$16.8K | $20.4K | ✗ |
| 2026-08-28 | 2000 · 159k mi | $5.6K–$16.1K | $12.5K | ✓ |
| 2026-08-28 | 2002 · 134k mi | $5.9K–$17.2K | $9.1K | ✓ |
| 2026-08-27 | 2006 · 25k mi | $9.8K–$28.3K | $29.5K | ✗ |
| 2026-08-26 | 2005 · 158k mi | $5.6K–$16.1K | $18.8K | ✗ |
| 2026-08-25 | 2005 · 45k mi | $9.8K–$28.3K | $29.3K | ✗ |
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 8 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
| Closes | Car | Source | Our predicted range |
|---|---|---|---|
| open | 2002 · 95k mi | ebay | $7.0K–$27.4K ($13.8K) |
| open | 2001 · 104k mi | BaT | $6.6K–$26.0K ($13.1K) |
| open | 2004 · 170k mi | ebay | $5.3K–$20.7K ($10.4K) |
| open | 2004 | C&B | $7.8K–$30.8K ($15.6K) |
| open | 2006 · 134k mi | BaT | $5.7K–$22.5K ($11.4K) |
| open | 2003 · 60k mi | BaT | $8.5K–$33.6K ($16.9K) |
| open | 2006 · 214k mi | BaT | $5.0K–$19.5K ($9.8K) |
| open | 2000 · 140k mi | ebay | $5.5K–$21.6K ($10.9K) |
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
| Horizon | Direction | Probability | Confidence | Past accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | DOWN | 53% | Low | 57% |
| 12 mo | DOWN | 52% | Low | 36% |
| 24 mo | FLAT | 50% | Low | 38% |
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. CPI (All Urban Consumers) has historically led it by about 5 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling higher over the next ~12 months (high conviction — 76% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by CPI (All Urban Consumers) and 10-Year Treasury Yield, though LVMH (luxury proxy ADR) points the other way.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2020
$100K invested 2020-01 → today (6.7 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
What This Market Follows
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
CPI (All Urban Consumers) leads by about 5 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.70). Shown shifted forward 5 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Why We Think This
Current Inventory Snapshot
Comparable Markets
| Market | Undervaluation | Appreciation | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|
| Land Rover Defender 90 (Euro Spec) | 54 | 53 | 44 |
| Porsche Cayenne (958) 2011-2018 | 57 | 42 | 49 |
| Honda Acty | 53 | 40 | 57 |
| Subaru Baja | 44 | 68 | 51 |
| BMW F650GS | 86 | 8 | 52 |
| BMW R1250GS | 53 | 33 | 49 |
| Ford Bronco (2nd Generation) | 57 | 49 | 60 |
| Ford Bronco (3rd Generation, 1980-1986) | 65 | 39 | 47 |
Recent Signals & Alerts
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$5,926 vs prior
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-3,300 vs prior
- undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$5,926 vs prior
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-3,495 vs prior
- undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.