Tracking 2 sales in the last 90 days. We'll publish a confident 12-month outlook once 3 more sales close — at this market's typical pace, that's roughly 8 months.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 5 yr, 1k mi example, ~$4.3K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 6 scored forecasts: 33% got the direction right, median value error ±46%.
━ actual╱ past predictions (ghosts)
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. Initial Jobless Claims has historically led it by about 10 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
BECAUSE Initial Jobless Claims fell 9%. THEREFORE, given its usual 10-month head start, we lean UP — about +1% (≈ +$30) over the next 10 months. Confidence: Moderate (correlation -0.70, 18 months overlap).
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling lower over the next ~12 months (low conviction — 30% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by Personal Savings Rate and Bitcoin (USD), though Housing Starts points the other way.
⚠ The price trend and leading indicators disagree — momentum may be running ahead of the fundamentals.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2020
$100K invested 2020-01 → today (6.7 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
━ This car $82.6K━ S&P 500 $263K━ Gold $276K━ Luxury $139K━ Housing $159K₿ Bitcoin $830K (off-scale)
Lost ground to inflation. The Triumph Scrambler roughly 0.8×'d your money (a real 36% LOSS to inflation). It LAGGED the stock market by about 69% — the same money in the S&P 500 would be larger. It trailed housing (-48%). (Price only — a real round-trip also loses ~10–20% to buy/sell fees and carrying costs.)
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
Initial Jobless Claims leads by about 10 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.70). Shown shifted forward 10 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Dow Jones Industrial leads by about 23 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.65). Shown shifted forward 23 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Triumph Scrambler┄ Dow Jones Industrial, shifted +23mo
Personal Savings Rate leads by about 14 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.63). Shown shifted forward 14 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Triumph Scrambler┄ Personal Savings Rate, shifted +14mo
Ethereum (USD) leads by about 21 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.63). Shown shifted forward 21 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Bitcoin (USD) leads by about 1 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.62). Shown shifted forward 1 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Triumph Scrambler┄ Bitcoin (USD), shifted +1mo
LVMH (luxury proxy ADR) leads by about 11 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.57). Shown shifted forward 11 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Russell 2000 (small cap) leads by about 23 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.56). Shown shifted forward 23 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Triumph Scrambler┄ Russell 2000 (small cap), shifted +23mo
US Metro Mean Temperature leads by about 22 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.56). Shown shifted forward 22 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Triumph Scrambler┄ US Metro Mean Temperature, shifted +22mo
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.