Tracking 2 sales in the last 90 days. We'll publish a confident 12-month outlook once 3 more sales close — at this market's typical pace, that's roughly 10 months.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 4 yr, 1k mi example, ~$4.1K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 4 scored forecasts: 25% got the direction right, median value error ±130%.
━ actual╱ past predictions (ghosts)
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. 10-Year Treasury Yield has historically led it by about 15 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
BECAUSE the 10-year Treasury yield rose 5%. THEREFORE, given its usual 15-month head start, we expect little change — about 0% over the next 15 months. Confidence: Moderate (correlation -0.60, 27 months overlap).
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling lower over the next ~12 months (low conviction — 17% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by 10-Year Treasury Yield and Personal Savings Rate, though 10-Year Treasury Yield points the other way.
Trend and leading indicators agree — both point down. Higher-conviction read.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2020
$100K invested 2020-01 → today (6.5 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
━ This car $61.4K━ S&P 500 $257K━ Gold $259K━ Luxury $157K━ Housing $155K₿ Bitcoin $634K (off-scale)
Lost ground to inflation. The Triumph Scrambler roughly 0.6×'d your money (a real 52% LOSS to inflation). It LAGGED the stock market by about 76% — the same money in the S&P 500 would be larger. It trailed housing (-60%). (Price only — a real round-trip also loses ~10–20% to buy/sell fees and carrying costs.)
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
10-Year Treasury Yield leads by about 15 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.60). Shown shifted forward 15 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Personal Savings Rate leads by about 14 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.60). Shown shifted forward 14 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Triumph Scrambler┄ Personal Savings Rate, shifted +14mo
Bitcoin (USD) leads by about 12 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.59). Shown shifted forward 12 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Triumph Scrambler┄ Bitcoin (USD), shifted +12mo
Advance Retail Sales leads by about 14 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.50). Shown shifted forward 14 months so its turns line up with the market's.
10-Year Treasury Yield leads by about 15 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.50). Shown shifted forward 15 months so its turns line up with the market's.
VIX Volatility Index leads by about 8 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.49). Shown shifted forward 8 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Unemployment Rate leads by about 8 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.47). Shown shifted forward 8 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Housing Starts leads by about 16 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.47). Shown shifted forward 16 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.