Blended value of a standard 27 yr, 17k mi example, ~$10.9K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
Horizon
Direction
Probability
Confidence
Past accuracy
6 mo
FLAT
50%
Low
50%
12 mo
DOWN
65%
Low
—
24 mo
DOWN
71%
Low
—
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. VIX Volatility Index has historically led it by about 6 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
BECAUSE market volatility (VIX) fell 36%. THEREFORE, given its usual 6-month head start, we lean UP — about +1% (≈ +$156) over the next 6 months. Confidence: Moderate (correlation -0.62, 19 months overlap).
If You’d Bought in 2023
$100K invested 2023-02 → today (3.6 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
━ This car $56.0K━ S&P 500 $206K━ Gold $239K━ Luxury $66.1K━ Housing $115K₿ Bitcoin $335K (off-scale)
Lost ground to inflation. The Toyota ToyoAce roughly 0.6×'d your money (a real 49% LOSS to inflation). It LAGGED the stock market by about 73% — the same money in the S&P 500 would be larger. It trailed housing (-51%). (Price only — a real round-trip also loses ~10–20% to buy/sell fees and carrying costs.)
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
Unemployment Rate leads by about 0 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.64). Shown shifted forward 0 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Toyota ToyoAce┄ Unemployment Rate, shifted +0mo
VIX Volatility Index leads by about 6 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.62). Shown shifted forward 6 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Toyota ToyoAce┄ VIX Volatility Index, shifted +6mo
CPI (All Urban Consumers) leads by about 7 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.61). Shown shifted forward 7 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Toyota ToyoAce┄ CPI (All Urban Consumers), shifted +7mo
Russell 2000 (small cap) leads by about 23 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.59). Shown shifted forward 23 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Toyota ToyoAce┄ Russell 2000 (small cap), shifted +23mo
Initial Jobless Claims leads by about 18 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.58). Shown shifted forward 18 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Toyota ToyoAce┄ Initial Jobless Claims, shifted +18mo
10-Year Treasury Yield leads by about 5 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.57). Shown shifted forward 5 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Toyota ToyoAce┄ 10-Year Treasury Yield, shifted +5mo
2-Year Treasury Yield leads by about 23 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.57). Shown shifted forward 23 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Toyota ToyoAce┄ 2-Year Treasury Yield, shifted +23mo
Trade-Weighted Dollar Index leads by about 22 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.56). Shown shifted forward 22 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Toyota ToyoAce┄ Trade-Weighted Dollar Index, shifted +22mo
Why We Think This
Appreciation Momentum
25
Undervaluation
40
Liquidity
58
Speculation Opportunity
28
Depreciation Risk
78
Overvaluation
60
inventory +0%inventory trend slope
asking +30% vs historic soldasking vs historic spread
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.