Toyota Tacoma (N1x0) 1994-2005
Flagged undervalued because asking -43% vs historic sold, -19% vs 3-yr trend, -17% vs 2-yr avg, and sell-through 98%.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 24 yr, 103k mi example, ~$13.1K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Did our model work? 54% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 39 scored forecasts: 54% got the direction right, median value error ±16%.
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard gavel in range 9 in 10
We replayed 489 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±23%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 9 in 10 of the time, and we lean slightly low on average.
| Sold | Car | Our range | Hammer | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-29 | 2004 · 18k mi | $11.1K–$31.9K | $16.3K | ✓ |
| 2026-05-29 | 2004 · 86k mi | $8.7K–$25.1K | $11.1K | ✓ |
| 2026-05-26 | 1996 · 105k mi | $8.1K–$23.3K | $21.5K | ✓ |
| 2026-05-25 | 2000 · 158k mi | $7.1K–$20.3K | $15.3K | ✓ |
| 2026-05-22 | 1999 · 68k mi | $9.5K–$27.4K | $19.5K | ✓ |
| 2026-05-21 | 2001 · 116k mi | $7.9K–$22.7K | $25.0K | ✗ |
| 2026-05-20 | 2005 · 99k mi | $8.3K–$23.7K | $25.5K | ✗ |
| 2026-05-20 | 1996 · 105k mi | $8.1K–$23.3K | $20.5K | ✓ |
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 8 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
| Closes | Car | Source | Our predicted range |
|---|---|---|---|
| open | 2002 · 184k mi | classic | $5.3K–$19.9K ($10.3K) |
| open | 2000 · 21k mi | ebay | $9.4K–$35.4K ($18.2K) |
| open | 2005 | BaT | $6.7K–$25.2K ($13.0K) |
| open | 2003 | C&B | $6.7K–$25.2K ($13.0K) |
| open | 1998 | BaT | $6.7K–$25.2K ($13.0K) |
| open | 1998 · 224k mi | ebay | $4.7K–$17.9K ($9.2K) |
| open | 2005 · 250k mi | classic | $4.5K–$16.8K ($8.7K) |
| open | 2004 · 173k mi | classic | $5.5K–$20.7K ($10.6K) |
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
| Horizon | Direction | Probability | Confidence | Past accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | UP | 47% | Low | 49% |
| 12 mo | UP | 48% | Low | 54% |
| 24 mo | UP | 48% | Low | 44% |
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. Nonfarm Payrolls (jobs) has historically led it by about 6 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling lower over the next ~12 months (high conviction — 100% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by Initial Jobless Claims and 30-Year Mortgage Rate.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2019
$100K invested 2019-05 → today (7.1 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
What This Market Follows
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
Nonfarm Payrolls (jobs) leads by about 6 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.67). Shown shifted forward 6 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Why We Think This
Current Inventory Snapshot
Comparable Markets
| Market | Undervaluation | Appreciation | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|
| Land Rover Defender 90 (Euro Spec) | 41 | 67 | 47 |
| Porsche Cayenne (958) 2011-2018 | 52 | 60 | 52 |
| Honda Acty | 53 | 43 | 50 |
| Subaru Baja | 53 | 68 | 51 |
| BMW R1250GS | 61 | 36 | 75 |
| Ford Bronco (2nd Generation) | 36 | 51 | 41 |
| Ford Bronco (3rd Generation, 1980-1986) | 70 | 38 | 31 |
Recent Signals & Alerts
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$3,000 vs prior
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-3,600 vs prior
- undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$3,000 vs prior
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-3,600 vs prior
- undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.