Toyota Tacoma (N1x0) 1994-2005
Flagged undervalued because asking -39% vs historic sold, +5% vs 3-yr trend, inventory -0%, and +5% vs 2-yr avg.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 24 yr, 105k mi example, ~$13.9K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Did our model work? 49% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 51 scored forecasts: 49% got the direction right, median value error ±26%.
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard gavel in range 9 in 10
We replayed 553 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±23%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 9 in 10 of the time.
| Sold | Car | Our range | Hammer | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-29 | 2003 · 99k mi | $8.3K–$24.2K | $11.9K | ✓ |
| 2026-09-26 | 1996 · 193k mi | $6.0K–$17.4K | $8.6K | ✓ |
| 2026-09-25 | 1998 · 62k mi | $9.8K–$28.5K | $27.3K | ✓ |
| 2026-09-22 | 2003 · 145k mi | $7.0K–$20.2K | $17.8K | ✓ |
| 2026-09-20 | 2000 · 15k mi | $11.3K–$32.8K | $27.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-09-19 | 1999 · 132k mi | $7.3K–$21.1K | $14.5K | ✓ |
| 2026-09-16 | 2000 · 104k mi | $8.1K–$23.6K | $18.5K | ✓ |
| 2026-09-16 | 2003 · 217k mi | $5.6K–$16.4K | $11.5K | ✓ |
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 8 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
| Closes | Car | Source | Our predicted range |
|---|---|---|---|
| open | 2005 · 139k mi | ebay | $6.1K–$23.9K ($12.1K) |
| open | 1998 · 164k mi | ebay | $5.6K–$22.0K ($11.1K) |
| open | 2002 · 223k mi | ebay | $4.7K–$18.5K ($9.3K) |
| open | 2005 | C&B | $7.0K–$27.5K ($13.9K) |
| open | 2002 · 63k mi | BaT | $8.3K–$32.8K ($16.5K) |
| open | 1996 · 78k mi | ebay | $7.7K–$30.5K ($15.4K) |
| open | 2001 · 208k mi | ebay | $4.9K–$19.2K ($9.7K) |
| open | 2002 · 79k mi | BaT | $7.8K–$30.6K ($15.4K) |
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
| Horizon | Direction | Probability | Confidence | Past accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | DOWN | 50% | Low | 58% |
| 12 mo | DOWN | 49% | Low | 49% |
| 24 mo | FLAT | 50% | Low | 49% |
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. High-Yield Bond Spread has historically led it by about 1 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling higher over the next ~12 months (high conviction — 100% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by LVMH (luxury proxy ADR) and VIX Volatility Index.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2019
$100K invested 2019-05 → today (7.4 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
What This Market Follows
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
High-Yield Bond Spread leads by about 1 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.65). Shown shifted forward 1 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Why We Think This
Current Inventory Snapshot
Comparable Markets
| Market | Undervaluation | Appreciation | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|
| Land Rover Defender 90 (Euro Spec) | 54 | 50 | 45 |
| Porsche Cayenne (958) 2011-2018 | 59 | 41 | 47 |
| Honda Acty | 44 | 51 | 57 |
| Subaru Baja | 54 | 61 | 51 |
| BMW F650GS | 89 | 7 | 50 |
| BMW R1250GS | 54 | 39 | 49 |
| Ford Bronco (2nd Generation) | 63 | 35 | 55 |
| Ford Bronco (3rd Generation, 1980-1986) | 51 | 61 | 41 |
Recent Signals & Alerts
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$2,997 vs prior
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-4,572 vs prior
- undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-4,572 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$2,997 vs prior
- undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.