Blended value of a standard 25 yr, 52k mi example, ~$26.1K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
We replayed 30 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±15%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 9 in 10 of the time.
Sold
Car
Our range
Hammer
2026-01-21
2003 · 35k mi
$18.0K–$52.4K
$31.8K
✓
2026-01-10
2001 · 44k mi
$17.3K–$50.2K
$34.1K
✓
2026-01-09
2001 · 1k mi
$26.3K–$76.3K
$86.9K
✗
2026-01-08
2000 · 43k mi
$17.3K–$50.4K
$38.5K
✓
2025-12-30
2001 · 55k mi
$16.8K–$48.7K
$25.0K
✓
2025-12-28
2003 · 9k mi
$20.8K–$60.4K
$54.0K
✓
2025-12-21
2001 · 24k mi
$19.4K–$56.4K
$33.9K
✓
2025-11-29
2002 · 52k mi
$17.2K–$49.9K
$26.5K
✓
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 1 open auction in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
Closes
Car
Source
Our predicted range
open
2000 · 165k mi
ebay
$9.9K–$38.1K ($19.4K)
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
Horizon
Direction
Probability
Confidence
Past accuracy
6 mo
UP
68%
Low
67%
12 mo
UP
76%
Low
—
24 mo
UP
84%
Low
—
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
If You’d Bought in 2025
$100K invested 2025-03 → today (1.4 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
━ This car $91.2K━ S&P 500 $142K━ Gold $143K━ Luxury $91.6K━ Housing $102K₿ Bitcoin $76.9K (off-scale)
Lost ground to inflation. The Ford F-150 SVT Lightning roughly 0.9×'d your money (a real 12% LOSS to inflation). It LAGGED the stock market by about 36% — the same money in the S&P 500 would be larger. It trailed housing (-11%). (Price only — a real round-trip also loses ~10–20% to buy/sell fees and carrying costs.)
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
Silver leads by about 9 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.82). Shown shifted forward 9 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Ford F-150 SVT Lightning┄ Silver, shifted +9mo
10Y-2Y Yield Spread leads by about 18 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.80). Shown shifted forward 18 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Ford F-150 SVT Lightning┄ 10Y-2Y Yield Spread, shifted +18mo
VIX Volatility Index leads by about 15 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.79). Shown shifted forward 15 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Ford F-150 SVT Lightning┄ VIX Volatility Index, shifted +15mo
Dow Jones Industrial leads by about 23 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.78). Shown shifted forward 23 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Ford F-150 SVT Lightning┄ Dow Jones Industrial, shifted +23mo
Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY) leads by about 19 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.77). Shown shifted forward 19 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Nasdaq Composite leads by about 23 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.77). Shown shifted forward 23 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Ford F-150 SVT Lightning┄ Nasdaq Composite, shifted +23mo
S&P 500 leads by about 23 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.77). Shown shifted forward 23 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Ford F-150 SVT Lightning┄ S&P 500, shifted +23mo
Russell 2000 (small cap) leads by about 22 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.76). Shown shifted forward 22 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Ford F-150 SVT Lightning┄ Russell 2000 (small cap), shifted +22mo
Why We Think This
Appreciation Momentum
78
Undervaluation
54
Liquidity
66
Speculation Opportunity
68
Depreciation Risk
36
Overvaluation
45
sell-through 100%sell through rate
inventory +0%inventory trend slope
sale prices +4.4%/momedian sale trend slope
asking trend +0.3%/momedian asking trend slope
+38% vs 12-mo avgpct vs trailing 12mo
new-listing velocity 18% of activenew listing velocity
vin returned higher VIN relisted +$36,990 vs prior
vin returned higher VIN relisted +$36,990 vs prior
vin returned higher VIN relisted +$36,990 vs prior
vin returned higher VIN relisted +$36,990 vs prior
vin returned higher VIN relisted +$36,990 vs prior
vin returned higher VIN relisted +$36,990 vs prior
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.