Flagged undervalued because inventory -0%, -42% vs 2-yr avg, and sell-through 94%.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 28 yr, 79k mi example, ~$5.9K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
We're currently tracking 1 open auction in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
Closes
Car
Source
Our predicted range
open
1997 · 103k mi
BaT
$2.8K–$11.0K ($5.5K)
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
Horizon
Direction
Probability
Confidence
Past accuracy
6 mo
DOWN
52%
Low
67%
12 mo
DOWN
53%
Low
—
24 mo
DOWN
54%
Low
—
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY) has historically led it by about 22 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
BECAUSE Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY) rose 22%. THEREFORE, given its usual 22-month head start, we lean DOWN — about −2% (≈ −$101) over the next 22 months. Confidence: Moderate (correlation -0.61, 23 months overlap).
If You’d Bought in 2020
$100K invested 2020-10 → today (5.8 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
━ This car $46.4K━ S&P 500 $263K━ Gold $238K━ Luxury $141K━ Housing $146K₿ Bitcoin $461K (off-scale)
Lost ground to inflation. The Suzuki X-90 roughly 0.5×'d your money (a real 64% LOSS to inflation). It LAGGED the stock market by about 82% — the same money in the S&P 500 would be larger. It trailed housing (-68%). (Price only — a real round-trip also loses ~10–20% to buy/sell fees and carrying costs.)
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
VIX Volatility Index leads by about 13 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.63). Shown shifted forward 13 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY) leads by about 22 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.61). Shown shifted forward 22 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Ethereum (USD) leads by about 22 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.61). Shown shifted forward 22 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Suzuki X-90┄ Ethereum (USD), shifted +22mo
Russell 2000 (small cap) leads by about 7 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.58). Shown shifted forward 7 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Suzuki X-90┄ Russell 2000 (small cap), shifted +7mo
LVMH (luxury proxy ADR) leads by about 22 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.56). Shown shifted forward 22 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Personal Savings Rate leads by about 24 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.56). Shown shifted forward 24 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Suzuki X-90┄ Personal Savings Rate, shifted +24mo
S&P 500 leads by about 7 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.56). Shown shifted forward 7 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Suzuki X-90┄ S&P 500, shifted +7mo
Dow Jones Industrial leads by about 7 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.54). Shown shifted forward 7 months so its turns line up with the market's.
price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=-1729.3)
price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=581.0)
price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=1691.0)
price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=622.6)
price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=-289.1)
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.