Flagged undervalued because asking -43% vs historic sold, sell-through 96%, and inventory -0%.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 39 yr, 74k mi example, ~$17.8K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 18 scored forecasts: 61% got the direction right, median value error ±39%.
━ actual╱ past predictions (ghosts)
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
Horizon
Direction
Probability
Confidence
Past accuracy
6 mo
DOWN
45%
Low
71%
12 mo
UP
58%
Low
61%
24 mo
UP
61%
Low
100%
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY) has historically led it by about 4 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
BECAUSE Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY) fell 10%. THEREFORE, given its usual 4-month head start, we lean UP — about +2% (≈ +$366) over the next 4 months. Confidence: Moderate (correlation -0.73, 20 months overlap).
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling higher over the next ~12 months (moderate conviction — 51% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by Real Disposable Income per Capita and U. Michigan Consumer Sentiment, though U. Michigan Consumer Sentiment points the other way.
Trend and leading indicators agree — both point up. Higher-conviction read.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2019
$100K invested 2019-01 → today (7.7 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
━ This car $123K━ S&P 500 $325K━ Gold $331K━ Luxury $199K━ Housing $165K₿ Bitcoin ×22 (off-scale)
Lost ground to inflation. The Subaru BRAT roughly 1.2×'d your money (a real 7% LOSS to inflation). It LAGGED the stock market by about 62% — the same money in the S&P 500 would be larger. It trailed housing (-26%). (Price only — a real round-trip also loses ~10–20% to buy/sell fees and carrying costs.)
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
High-Yield Bond Spread leads by about 8 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.81). Shown shifted forward 8 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Subaru BRAT┄ High-Yield Bond Spread, shifted +8mo
Russell 2000 (small cap) leads by about 7 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.78). Shown shifted forward 7 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Subaru BRAT┄ Russell 2000 (small cap), shifted +7mo
Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY) leads by about 4 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.73). Shown shifted forward 4 months so its turns line up with the market's.
US Regular Gas Price leads by about 20 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.68). Shown shifted forward 20 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Subaru BRAT┄ US Regular Gas Price, shifted +20mo
WTI Crude Oil leads by about 20 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.68). Shown shifted forward 20 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Subaru BRAT┄ WTI Crude Oil, shifted +20mo
Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY) leads by about 7 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.68). Shown shifted forward 7 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Real Disposable Income per Capita leads by about 13 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.67). Shown shifted forward 13 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Subaru BRAT┄ Real Disposable Income per Capita, shifted +13mo
Nasdaq Composite leads by about 8 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.66). Shown shifted forward 8 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Subaru BRAT┄ Nasdaq Composite, shifted +8mo
Why We Think This
Appreciation Momentum
71
Undervaluation
46
Liquidity
48
Speculation Opportunity
65
Depreciation Risk
33
Overvaluation
61
asking -43% vs historic soldasking vs historic spread
+50% vs 2-yr avgpct vs trailing 24mo
+61% vs 3-yr trendpct vs trailing 36mo
sale prices +4.2%/momedian sale trend slope
+23% vs 12-mo avgpct vs trailing 12mo
asking trend -0.1%/momedian asking trend slope
new-listing velocity 0% of activenew listing velocity
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.