Flagged undervalued because asking -50% vs historic sold, inventory -0%, and sell-through 96%.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 39 yr, 74k mi example, ~$17.5K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 17 scored forecasts: 53% got the direction right, median value error ±35%.
━ actual╱ past predictions (ghosts)
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
Horizon
Direction
Probability
Confidence
Past accuracy
6 mo
DOWN
48%
Low
74%
12 mo
UP
54%
Low
53%
24 mo
UP
56%
Low
100%
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. High-Yield Bond Spread has historically led it by about 6 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
BECAUSE credit spreads fell 13%. THEREFORE, given its usual 6-month head start, we lean DOWN — about −3% (≈ −$479) over the next 6 months. Confidence: Moderate (correlation +0.59, 22 months overlap).
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling lower over the next ~12 months (low conviction — 2% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by Real Disposable Income per Capita and Trade-Weighted Dollar Index, though Trade-Weighted Dollar Index points the other way.
⚠ The price trend and leading indicators disagree — momentum may be running ahead of the fundamentals.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2019
$100K invested 2019-01 → today (7.6 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
━ This car $120K━ S&P 500 $328K━ Gold $339K━ Luxury $222K━ Housing $164K₿ Bitcoin ×18 (off-scale)
Lost ground to inflation. The Subaru BRAT roughly 1.2×'d your money (a real 9% LOSS to inflation). It LAGGED the stock market by about 63% — the same money in the S&P 500 would be larger. It trailed housing (-27%). (Price only — a real round-trip also loses ~10–20% to buy/sell fees and carrying costs.)
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
Russell 2000 (small cap) leads by about 7 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.59). Shown shifted forward 7 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Subaru BRAT┄ Russell 2000 (small cap), shifted +7mo
High-Yield Bond Spread leads by about 6 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.59). Shown shifted forward 6 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Subaru BRAT┄ High-Yield Bond Spread, shifted +6mo
Ethereum (USD) leads by about 5 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.58). Shown shifted forward 5 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Subaru BRAT┄ Ethereum (USD), shifted +5mo
Trade-Weighted Dollar Index leads by about 24 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.55). Shown shifted forward 24 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Subaru BRAT┄ Trade-Weighted Dollar Index, shifted +24mo
Real Disposable Income per Capita leads by about 13 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.54). Shown shifted forward 13 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Subaru BRAT┄ Real Disposable Income per Capita, shifted +13mo
Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY) leads by about 8 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.52). Shown shifted forward 8 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Gold (futures) leads by about 24 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.51). Shown shifted forward 24 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Subaru BRAT┄ Gold (futures), shifted +24mo
Real Disposable Income per Capita leads by about 6 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.51). Shown shifted forward 6 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Subaru BRAT┄ Real Disposable Income per Capita, shifted +6mo
Why We Think This
Appreciation Momentum
47
Undervaluation
63
Liquidity
51
Speculation Opportunity
63
Depreciation Risk
48
Overvaluation
40
asking -50% vs historic soldasking vs historic spread
inventory -0%inventory trend slope
sell-through 96%sell through rate
asking trend -0.3%/momedian asking trend slope
33% of listings cutting priceprice drop frequency
new-listing velocity 7% of activenew listing velocity
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.