Mercedes-Benz SLR McLaren
Flagged undervalued because -48% vs 2-yr avg, asking -17% vs historic sold, and -42% vs 3-yr trend.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 17 yr, 6k mi example, ~$431K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Did our model work? 74% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 34 scored forecasts: 74% got the direction right, median value error ±36%.
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard gavel in range 8 in 10
We replayed 127 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±22%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 8 in 10 of the time, and we lean slightly low on average.
| Sold | Car | Our range | Hammer | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-16 | 2009 · 5k mi | $286K–$636K | $715K | ✗ |
| 2026-04-24 | 2009 · 9k mi | $263K–$584K | $835K | ✗ |
| 2026-03-06 | 2009 · 3k mi | $271K–$780K | $841K | ✗ |
| 2026-03-06 | 2009 · 3k mi | $299K–$665K | $841K | ✗ |
| 2026-02-27 | 2009 · 6k mi | $257K–$740K | $830K | ✗ |
| 2026-02-27 | 2009 · 6k mi | $288K–$641K | $830K | ✗ |
| 2026-02-27 | 2006 · 4k mi | $298K–$662K | $401K | ✓ |
| 2026-02-05 | 2006 · 4k mi | $299K–$665K | $365K | ✓ |
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 8 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
| Closes | Car | Source | Our predicted range |
|---|---|---|---|
| open | 2006 · 27k mi | hemmings | $204K–$588K ($346K) |
| open | 2006 · 36k mi | classic | $194K–$559K ($329K) |
| open | 2006 · 7k mi | classic | $252K–$728K ($429K) |
| open | 2005 · 3k mi | classic | $275K–$792K ($466K) |
| open | 2006 · 7k mi | classic | $250K–$721K ($425K) |
| open | 2006 · 42k mi | classic | $195K–$562K ($331K) |
| open | 2006 · 0k mi | classic | $320K–$922K ($543K) |
| open | 2006 · 6k mi | classic | $256K–$738K ($434K) |
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
| Horizon | Direction | Probability | Confidence | Past accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | UP | 55% | Low | 63% |
| 12 mo | UP | 57% | Low | 74% |
| 24 mo | UP | 60% | Low | 77% |
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling lower over the next ~12 months (high conviction — 100% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by VIX Volatility Index and LVMH (luxury proxy ADR).
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2015
$100K invested 2015-05 → today (11.1 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
What This Market Follows
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
Case-Shiller National Home Price leads by about 8 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.78). Shown shifted forward 8 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Why We Think This
Current Inventory Snapshot
Comparable Markets
| Market | Undervaluation | Appreciation | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ferrari 296 GTB/GTS | 53 | 58 | 40 |
| Ferrari 360 | 57 | 36 | 39 |
| Ferrari 458 | 54 | 31 | 51 |
| Ferrari 488 | 52 | 38 | 47 |
| Ferrari 550/575 Maranello | 56 | 47 | 54 |
| McLaren 570S | 51 | 55 | 52 |
| Ferrari 599 GTB | 46 | 33 | 49 |
| McLaren 720S | 51 | 47 | 44 |
Recent Signals & Alerts
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$197,893 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$197,893 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$199,893 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$199,893 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$199,893 vs prior
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.