Mercedes-Benz SLR McLaren
Flagged undervalued because -80% vs 2-yr avg, -79% vs 3-yr trend, inventory -1%, and asking -10% vs historic sold.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 18 yr, 7k mi example, ~$406K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Did our model work? 73% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 67 scored forecasts: 73% got the direction right, median value error ±67%.
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard gavel in range 8 in 10
We replayed 133 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±23%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 8 in 10 of the time.
| Sold | Car | Our range | Hammer | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-15 | 2009 · 2k mi | $329K–$719K | $1270K | ✗ |
| 2026-08-14 | 2006 · 13k mi | $247K–$540K | $410K | ✓ |
| 2026-07-22 | 2005 · 7k mi | $273K–$597K | $391K | ✓ |
| 2026-06-11 | 2005 · 8k mi | $269K–$588K | $387K | ✓ |
| 2026-06-05 | 2007 · 9k mi | $266K–$581K | $341K | ✓ |
| 2026-05-16 | 2009 · 5k mi | $284K–$621K | $715K | ✗ |
| 2026-04-24 | 2009 · 9k mi | $266K–$582K | $835K | ✗ |
| 2026-03-06 | 2009 · 3k mi | $271K–$780K | $841K | ✗ |
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 4 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
| Closes | Car | Source | Our predicted range |
|---|---|---|---|
| open | 2008 · 2k mi | classic | $302K–$848K ($506K) |
| open | 2006 · 42k mi | classic | $195K–$562K ($331K) |
| open | 2006 · 6k mi | classic | $256K–$738K ($434K) |
| open | 2008 · 21k mi | classic | $216K–$623K ($367K) |
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
| Horizon | Direction | Probability | Confidence | Past accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | UP | 53% | Low | 71% |
| 12 mo | UP | 54% | Low | 73% |
| 24 mo | UP | 56% | Low | 85% |
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling lower over the next ~12 months (moderate conviction — 45% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by Core CPI (ex food/energy) and Ethereum (USD), though Core CPI (ex food/energy) points the other way.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2012
$100K invested 2012-03 → today (14.5 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
What This Market Follows
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
Case-Shiller National Home Price leads by about 8 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.89). Shown shifted forward 8 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Why We Think This
Current Inventory Snapshot
Comparable Markets
| Market | Undervaluation | Appreciation | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ferrari 296 GTB/GTS | 44 | 56 | 36 |
| Ferrari 360 | 39 | 70 | 51 |
| Ferrari 360 Challenge Stradale | 0 | 67 | 56 |
| Ferrari 458 | 45 | 40 | 52 |
| Ferrari 458 Speciale | 2 | 57 | 41 |
| Ferrari 458 Speciale Aperta | 0 | 77 | 42 |
| Ferrari 488 | 36 | 57 | 45 |
| Ferrari 488 Pista | 8 | 54 | 44 |
Recent Signals & Alerts
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$349,996 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$349,996 vs prior
- inventory shortage Inventory dropped (robust z=-3.4)
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$349,996 vs prior
- inventory shortage Inventory dropped (robust z=-3.0)
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$349,996 vs prior
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.