Ferrari 458
Flagged undervalued because -68% vs 2-yr avg, -66% vs 3-yr trend, and sell-through 98%.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 11 yr, 13k mi example, ~$261K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Did our model work? 68% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 41 scored forecasts: 68% got the direction right, median value error ±27%.
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard gavel in range 7 in 10
We replayed 257 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±20%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 7 in 10 of the time, and we lean slightly low on average.
| Sold | Car | Our range | Hammer | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-27 | 2013 · 12k mi | $167K–$371K | $353K | ✓ |
| 2026-05-21 | 2011 · 4k mi | $209K–$465K | $310K | ✓ |
| 2026-05-13 | 2012 · 27k mi | $135K–$301K | $225K | ✓ |
| 2026-05-07 | 2013 · 46k mi | $126K–$281K | $154K | ✓ |
| 2026-04-29 | 2012 · 9k mi | $172K–$382K | $180K | ✓ |
| 2026-04-25 | 2015 · 0k mi | $369K–$821K | $1382K | ✗ |
| 2026-04-25 | 2015 · 0k mi | $369K–$821K | $826K | ✗ |
| 2026-04-22 | 2014 · 7k mi | $179K–$397K | $231K | ✓ |
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 8 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
| Closes | Car | Source | Our predicted range |
|---|---|---|---|
| open | 2013 · 8k mi | classic | $167K–$482K ($284K) |
| open | 2014 · 24k mi | classic | $129K–$371K ($218K) |
| open | 2012 · 6k mi | classic | $177K–$509K ($300K) |
| open | 2015 · 11k mi | classic | $158K–$457K ($269K) |
| open | 2013 · 17k mi | classic | $139K–$402K ($237K) |
| open | 2014 · 35k mi | classic | $121K–$348K ($205K) |
| open | 2011 · 48k mi | classic | $117K–$338K ($199K) |
| open | 2015 · 0k mi | classic | $355K–$1022K ($602K) |
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
| Horizon | Direction | Probability | Confidence | Past accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | UP | 53% | Low | 55% |
| 12 mo | UP | 56% | Low | 68% |
| 24 mo | UP | 59% | Low | 79% |
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
If You’d Bought in 2016
$100K invested 2016-08 → today (9.8 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
What This Market Follows
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
Case-Shiller National Home Price leads by about 2 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.67). Shown shifted forward 2 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Why We Think This
Current Inventory Snapshot
Comparable Markets
| Market | Undervaluation | Appreciation | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ferrari 296 GTB/GTS | 53 | 58 | 40 |
| Ferrari 360 | 57 | 36 | 39 |
| Ferrari 488 | 52 | 38 | 47 |
| Ferrari 550/575 Maranello | 56 | 47 | 54 |
| McLaren 570S | 51 | 55 | 52 |
| Ferrari 599 GTB | 46 | 33 | 49 |
| McLaren 720S | 51 | 47 | 44 |
| Ferrari 812 Superfast | 62 | 41 | 51 |
Recent Signals & Alerts
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-100,000 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$99,990 vs prior
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-150,000 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$69,996 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$521,010 vs prior
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-201,999 vs prior
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.