We don't yet have enough sold history for this market to model a reliable index, valuation, or forecast. Check back as sales accrue.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 6 yr, 2k mi example, ~$761K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Building historyNot enough data to chart yet — check back as sales accrue.
◫ 51 confirmed auction sales·55 months tracked·since 2022-03·43 active listings
Did our model work? 22% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 9 scored forecasts: 22% got the direction right, median value error ±906%.
Track record buildingNot enough graded forecasts yet to show accuracy.
━ actual╱ past predictions (ghosts)
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. Bitcoin (USD) has historically led it by about 2 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
BECAUSE bitcoin rose 32%. THEREFORE, given its usual 2-month head start, we expect little change — about +0% (≈ +$3,746) over the next 2 months. Confidence: Moderate (correlation +0.88, 21 months overlap).
If You’d Bought in 2022
$100K invested 2022-03 → today (4.5 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
━ This car $169K━ S&P 500 $183K━ Gold $224K━ Luxury $80.1K━ Housing $114K₿ Bitcoin $171K (off-scale)
Solid store of value, but lagged the stock market. The Ferrari 488 Pista roughly 1.7×'d your money (a real, inflation-adjusted 1.5× gain). It LAGGED the stock market by about 8% — the same money in the S&P 500 would be larger. It beat housing (+48%). (Price only — a real round-trip also loses ~10–20% to buy/sell fees and carrying costs.)
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
Bitcoin (USD) leads by about 2 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.88). Shown shifted forward 2 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Ferrari 488 Pista┄ Bitcoin (USD), shifted +2mo
Gold (futures) leads by about 10 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.87). Shown shifted forward 10 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Ferrari 488 Pista┄ Gold (futures), shifted +10mo
Silver leads by about 21 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.84). Shown shifted forward 21 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Ferrari 488 Pista┄ Silver, shifted +21mo
Core CPI (ex food/energy) leads by about 24 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.83). Shown shifted forward 24 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Ferrari 488 Pista┄ Core CPI (ex food/energy), shifted +24mo
Russell 2000 (small cap) leads by about 23 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.81). Shown shifted forward 23 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Ferrari 488 Pista┄ Russell 2000 (small cap), shifted +23mo
Nonfarm Payrolls (jobs) leads by about 9 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.79). Shown shifted forward 9 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Ferrari 488 Pista┄ Nonfarm Payrolls (jobs), shifted +9mo
Unemployment Rate leads by about 22 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.79). Shown shifted forward 22 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Ferrari 488 Pista┄ Unemployment Rate, shifted +22mo
Effective Fed Funds Rate leads by about 13 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.77). Shown shifted forward 13 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Ferrari 488 Pista┄ Effective Fed Funds Rate, shifted +13mo
Why We Think This
Appreciation Momentum
62
Undervaluation
6
Liquidity
40
Speculation Opportunity
18
Depreciation Risk
36
Overvaluation
95
asking +286% vs historic soldasking vs historic spread
inventory -1%inventory trend slope
sell-through 48%sell through rate
asking trend +0.1%/momedian asking trend slope
42% relistedlisting reappearance rate
new-listing velocity 0% of activenew listing velocity
Current Inventory Snapshot
Active priced listings43
Median fair value$302,791
Avg deal score47/100
Recent Signals & Alerts
vin returned lower VIN relisted $-249,000 vs prior
vin returned higher VIN relisted +$160,112 vs prior
undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
vin returned lower VIN relisted $-104,593 vs prior
vin returned higher VIN relisted +$115,547 vs prior
undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.