Ferrari 296 GTB/GTS
Due to the thin data state, this market read for the Ferrari 296 GTB/GTS is low-confidence. Signals indicate a potential upward movement in the 24-month horizon with a 0.75 probability, though the market regime is expected to be volatile across all forecast periods. The strongest leading indicator identified is Silver, which has historically shown a 0.81 correlation 21 months ahead of this market.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 2 yr, 1k mi example, ~$333K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Did our model work? 0% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 1 scored forecasts: 0% got the direction right, median value error ±17%.
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard gavel in range 9 in 10
We replayed 37 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±16%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 9 in 10 of the time, and we lean slightly high on average.
| Sold | Car | Our range | Hammer | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | 2024 · 0k mi | $235K–$511K | $350K | ✓ |
| 2026-07-20 | 2023 · 2k mi | $262K–$570K | $273K | ✓ |
| 2026-07-01 | 2024 · 0k mi | $253K–$551K | $332K | ✓ |
| 2026-06-15 | 2024 · 7k mi | $265K–$576K | $197K | ✗ |
| 2026-06-08 | 2024 · 9k mi | $240K–$522K | $268K | ✓ |
| 2026-05-26 | 2025 · 1k mi | $266K–$578K | $374K | ✓ |
| 2026-05-10 | 2024 · 0k mi | $260K–$566K | $306K | ✓ |
| 2026-04-24 | 2023 · 1k mi | $233K–$672K | $316K | ✓ |
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 8 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
| Closes | Car | Source | Our predicted range |
|---|---|---|---|
| open | 2024 · 4k mi | ebay | $209K–$619K ($360K) |
| open | 2024 · 4k mi | ebay | $209K–$619K ($360K) |
| open | 2024 · 3k mi | ebay | $206K–$608K ($354K) |
| open | 2024 · 0k mi | classic | $222K–$627K ($374K) |
| open | 2023 · 2k mi | ebay | $224K–$629K ($375K) |
| open | 2023 · 2k mi | ebay | $224K–$630K ($376K) |
| open | 2024 · 1k mi | ebay | $224K–$628K ($375K) |
| open | 2023 · 2k mi | ebay | $240K–$668K ($401K) |
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
| Horizon | Direction | Probability | Confidence | Past accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | DOWN | 44% | Low | 29% |
| 12 mo | UP | 65% | Low | 0% |
| 24 mo | UP | 75% | Low | — |
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. WTI Crude Oil has historically led it by about 20 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
If You’d Bought in 2024
$100K invested 2024-09 → today (2.1 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
What This Market Follows
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
Initial Jobless Claims leads by about 1 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.68). Shown shifted forward 1 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Why We Think This
Current Inventory Snapshot
Comparable Markets
| Market | Undervaluation | Appreciation | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ferrari 360 | 21 | 84 | 50 |
| Ferrari 360 Challenge Stradale | 0 | 82 | 55 |
| Ferrari 458 | 25 | 68 | 40 |
| Ferrari 458 Speciale | 1 | 9 | 43 |
| Ferrari 458 Speciale Aperta | 0 | 69 | 24 |
| Ferrari 488 | 28 | 65 | 36 |
| Ferrari 488 Pista | 6 | 60 | 45 |
| Ferrari 550/575 Maranello | 31 | 70 | 46 |
Recent Signals & Alerts
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$72,030 vs prior
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-64,900 vs prior
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-64,900 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$62,499 vs prior
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-64,900 vs prior
- price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=-4.5)
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.