We don't yet have enough sold history for this market to model a reliable index, valuation, or forecast. Check back as sales accrue.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 10 yr, 7k mi example, ~$751K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Building historyNot enough data to chart yet — check back as sales accrue.
◫ 86 confirmed auction sales·93 months tracked·since 2019-01·21 active listings
Did our model work? 91% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 23 scored forecasts: 91% got the direction right, median value error ±34%.
Track record buildingNot enough graded forecasts yet to show accuracy.
━ actual╱ past predictions (ghosts)
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
If You’d Bought in 2019
$100K invested 2019-01 → today (7.7 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
━ This car $189K━ S&P 500 $325K━ Gold $331K━ Luxury $199K━ Housing $165K₿ Bitcoin ×22 (off-scale)
Solid store of value, but lagged the stock market. The Ferrari 458 Speciale roughly 1.9×'d your money (a real, inflation-adjusted 1.4× gain). It LAGGED the stock market by about 42% — the same money in the S&P 500 would be larger. It beat housing (+15%). (Price only — a real round-trip also loses ~10–20% to buy/sell fees and carrying costs.)
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
Case-Shiller National Home Price leads by about 7 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.95). Shown shifted forward 7 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Ferrari 458 Speciale┄ Case-Shiller National Home Price, shifted +7mo
Advance Retail Sales leads by about 10 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.95). Shown shifted forward 10 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Ferrari 458 Speciale┄ Advance Retail Sales, shifted +10mo
Core CPI (ex food/energy) leads by about 24 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.95). Shown shifted forward 24 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Ferrari 458 Speciale┄ Core CPI (ex food/energy), shifted +24mo
CPI (All Urban Consumers) leads by about 5 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.95). Shown shifted forward 5 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Ferrari 458 Speciale┄ CPI (All Urban Consumers), shifted +5mo
PCE Price Index leads by about 24 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.95). Shown shifted forward 24 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Ferrari 458 Speciale┄ PCE Price Index, shifted +24mo
Nonfarm Payrolls (jobs) leads by about 1 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.93). Shown shifted forward 1 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Ferrari 458 Speciale┄ Nonfarm Payrolls (jobs), shifted +1mo
Dow Jones Industrial leads by about 11 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.90). Shown shifted forward 11 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Ferrari 458 Speciale┄ Dow Jones Industrial, shifted +11mo
S&P 500 leads by about 11 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.90). Shown shifted forward 11 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Ferrari 458 Speciale┄ S&P 500, shifted +11mo
Why We Think This
Appreciation Momentum
11
Undervaluation
1
Liquidity
51
Speculation Opportunity
1
Depreciation Risk
85
Overvaluation
98
asking +398% vs historic soldasking vs historic spread
vin returned higher VIN relisted +$61,990 vs prior
vin returned lower VIN relisted $-49,878 vs prior
price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=-88.6)
undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
vin returned higher VIN relisted +$152,190 vs prior
vin returned lower VIN relisted $-279,995 vs prior
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.