Ferrari 488
The Ferrari 488 market currently shows a high overvaluation score of 72.51 and low undervaluation at 24.29, with an appreciation momentum of 71.22 and depreciation risk at 44.96. The outlook suggests a volatile regime, indicating a 45% probability of a down direction over 6 months, shifting to a 50% probability of being flat over 24 months. Advance Retail Sales, which leads by 15 months with a 0.85 correlation, is identified as a strong leading indicator for this market.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 7 yr, 7k mi example, ~$268K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Did our model work? 71% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 49 scored forecasts: 71% got the direction right, median value error ±21%.
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard gavel in range 7 in 10
We replayed 219 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±19%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 7 in 10 of the time.
| Sold | Car | Our range | Hammer | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-29 | 2018 · 14k mi | $157K–$342K | $333K | ✓ |
| 2026-09-29 | 2017 · 6k mi | $181K–$393K | $140K | ✗ |
| 2026-09-28 | 2017 · 21k mi | $152K–$330K | $243K | ✓ |
| 2026-09-26 | 2018 · 2k mi | $223K–$485K | $577K | ✗ |
| 2026-09-25 | 2016 · 6k mi | $181K–$395K | $390K | ✓ |
| 2026-09-23 | 2019 · 1k mi | $257K–$560K | $1000K | ✗ |
| 2026-09-22 | 2016 · 0k mi | $312K–$679K | $342K | ✓ |
| 2026-09-21 | 2016 · 8k mi | $169K–$369K | $295K | ✓ |
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 8 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
| Closes | Car | Source | Our predicted range |
|---|---|---|---|
| open | 2019 · 3k mi | ebay | $183K–$541K ($315K) |
| open | 2019 · 4k mi | ebay | $174K–$515K ($300K) |
| open | 2018 · 10k mi | ebay | $149K–$442K ($257K) |
| open | 2018 · 10k mi | classic | $149K–$440K ($256K) |
| open | 2018 · 13k mi | ebay | $144K–$427K ($248K) |
| open | 2019 · 3k mi | ebay | $184K–$544K ($316K) |
| open | 2019 · 4k mi | ebay | $175K–$517K ($301K) |
| open | 2018 · 10k mi | ebay | $150K–$444K ($258K) |
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
| Horizon | Direction | Probability | Confidence | Past accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | DOWN | 45% | Low | 56% |
| 12 mo | DOWN | 41% | Low | 71% |
| 24 mo | FLAT | 50% | Low | 81% |
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling higher over the next ~12 months (high conviction — 77% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by Advance Retail Sales and Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY), though VIX Volatility Index points the other way.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2019
$100K invested 2019-10 → today (7.0 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
What This Market Follows
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
Advance Retail Sales leads by about 15 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.85). Shown shifted forward 15 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Why We Think This
Current Inventory Snapshot
Comparable Markets
| Market | Undervaluation | Appreciation | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ferrari 296 GTB/GTS | 53 | 52 | 36 |
| Ferrari 360 | 21 | 84 | 50 |
| Ferrari 360 Challenge Stradale | 0 | 82 | 55 |
| Ferrari 458 | 25 | 68 | 40 |
| Ferrari 458 Speciale | 1 | 9 | 43 |
| Ferrari 458 Speciale Aperta | 0 | 69 | 24 |
| Ferrari 488 Pista | 6 | 60 | 45 |
| Ferrari 550/575 Maranello | 31 | 70 | 46 |
Recent Signals & Alerts
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-50,195 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$50,991 vs prior
- undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-50,195 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$50,991 vs prior
- undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.