Ferrari 488
The Ferrari 488 market currently shows an overvaluation score of 61.22 and appreciation momentum at 62.83. A volatile market regime is indicated, with a 0.48 probability for a downward trend at 6 months, transitioning to an upward trend with 0.54 probability at 12 months and 0.57 probability at 24 months. The Case-Shiller National Home Price is the strongest leading indicator, showing a 0.73 correlation with a 7-month lead.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 7 yr, 9k mi example, ~$236K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Did our model work? 55% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 47 scored forecasts: 55% got the direction right, median value error ±31%.
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard gavel in range 8 in 10
We replayed 232 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±14%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 8 in 10 of the time, and we lean slightly low on average.
| Sold | Car | Our range | Hammer | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-10 | 2019 · 51k mi | $133K–$290K | $176K | ✓ |
| 2026-07-07 | 2018 · 8k mi | $170K–$371K | $475K | ✗ |
| 2026-06-21 | 2019 · 2k mi | $214K–$467K | $482K | ✗ |
| 2026-06-18 | 2016 · 8k mi | $170K–$372K | $162K | ✗ |
| 2026-06-16 | 2018 · 13k mi | $162K–$355K | $204K | ✓ |
| 2026-06-10 | 2019 · 3k mi | $195K–$426K | $874K | ✗ |
| 2026-06-10 | 2019 · 3k mi | $168K–$468K | $874K | ✗ |
| 2026-06-07 | 2018 · 17k mi | $158K–$345K | $236K | ✓ |
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 8 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
| Closes | Car | Source | Our predicted range |
|---|---|---|---|
| open | 2018 · 9k mi | classic | $140K–$394K ($235K) |
| open | 2018 · 10k mi | ebay | $138K–$390K ($232K) |
| open | 2017 · 12k mi | classic | $135K–$380K ($226K) |
| open | 2019 · 12k mi | classic | $153K–$431K ($257K) |
| open | 2017 · 13k mi | ebay | $152K–$429K ($255K) |
| open | 2019 · 2k mi | classic | $198K–$559K ($333K) |
| open | 2018 · 2k mi | classic | $187K–$528K ($314K) |
| open | 2018 · 5k mi | classic | $167K–$472K ($281K) |
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
| Horizon | Direction | Probability | Confidence | Past accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | DOWN | 48% | Low | 51% |
| 12 mo | UP | 54% | Low | 55% |
| 24 mo | UP | 57% | Low | 66% |
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling lower over the next ~12 months (low conviction — 30% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by Trade-Weighted Dollar Index and Ethereum (USD), though Nasdaq Composite points the other way.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2019
$100K invested 2019-10 → today (7.2 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
What This Market Follows
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
Case-Shiller National Home Price leads by about 7 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.71). Shown shifted forward 7 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Why We Think This
Current Inventory Snapshot
Comparable Markets
| Market | Undervaluation | Appreciation | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ferrari 296 GTB/GTS | 54 | 58 | 45 |
| Ferrari 360 | 28 | 74 | 49 |
| Ferrari 360 Challenge Stradale | 0 | 80 | 54 |
| Ferrari 458 | 44 | 41 | 53 |
| Ferrari 458 Speciale | 6 | 77 | 53 |
| Ferrari 458 Speciale Aperta | 0 | 67 | 53 |
| Ferrari 488 Pista | 10 | 36 | 47 |
| Ferrari 550/575 Maranello | 36 | 77 | 53 |
Recent Signals & Alerts
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-80,095 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$62,000 vs prior
- price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=67.7)
- undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$62,000 vs prior
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-86,787 vs prior
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.