Subaru Sambar
Flagged undervalued because sell-through 97%, and asking +3% vs historic sold.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 28 yr, 37k mi example, ~$8.2K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Did our model work? 39% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 28 scored forecasts: 39% got the direction right, median value error ±40%.
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard gavel in range 8 in 10
We replayed 102 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±27%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 8 in 10 of the time, and we lean slightly high on average.
| Sold | Car | Our range | Hammer | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | 1995 · 25k mi | $5.4K–$15.7K | $15.1K | ✓ |
| 2026-07-17 | 1996 · 6k mi | $7.0K–$20.4K | $10.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-07-10 | 1997 · 4k mi | $7.6K–$22.1K | $13.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-07-08 | 1995 · 52k mi | $5.3K–$15.5K | $8.8K | ✓ |
| 2026-06-24 | 2001 · 48k mi | $5.3K–$15.4K | $5.6K | ✓ |
| 2026-06-15 | 1992 · 31k mi | $5.3K–$15.3K | $7.5K | ✓ |
| 2026-06-13 | 2000 · 42k mi | $5.1K–$14.8K | $10.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-05-28 | 1996 · 30k mi | $5.4K–$15.6K | $9.0K | ✓ |
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 8 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
| Closes | Car | Source | Our predicted range |
|---|---|---|---|
| open | 1994 · 120k mi | BaT | $3.4K–$13.2K ($6.7K) |
| open | 1969 | BaT | $4.1K–$15.9K ($8.1K) |
| open | 2000 · 47k mi | classic | $4.4K–$16.8K ($8.6K) |
| open | 1998 · 74k mi | classic | $4.0K–$15.5K ($7.9K) |
| open | 1999 · 6k mi | classic | $5.7K–$22.0K ($11.2K) |
| open | 1983 · 10k mi | classic | $5.3K–$20.6K ($10.5K) |
| open | 1995 · 27k mi | classic | $4.5K–$17.5K ($8.9K) |
| open | 1999 | classic | $4.3K–$16.3K ($8.3K) |
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
| Horizon | Direction | Probability | Confidence | Past accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | DOWN | 52% | Low | 47% |
| 12 mo | DOWN | 52% | Low | 39% |
| 24 mo | DOWN | 52% | Low | 38% |
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. Advance Retail Sales has historically led it by about 6 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling higher over the next ~12 months (moderate conviction — 52% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by Advance Retail Sales and Trade-Weighted Dollar Index, though Nasdaq Composite points the other way.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2019
$100K invested 2019-01 → today (7.6 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
What This Market Follows
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
Advance Retail Sales leads by about 6 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.60). Shown shifted forward 6 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Why We Think This
Current Inventory Snapshot
Comparable Markets
| Market | Undervaluation | Appreciation | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|
| Land Rover Defender 90 (Euro Spec) | 44 | 61 | 43 |
| Porsche Cayenne (958) 2011-2018 | 64 | 31 | 50 |
| Honda Acty | 50 | 53 | 57 |
| Subaru Baja | 59 | 45 | 49 |
| BMW F650GS | 45 | 42 | 36 |
| BMW R1250GS | 60 | 46 | 54 |
| Ford Bronco (2nd Generation) | 64 | 36 | 47 |
| Ford Bronco (3rd Generation, 1980-1986) | 61 | 57 | 30 |
Recent Signals & Alerts
- price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=36.8)
- price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=-36.9)
- price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=-4.2)
- price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=-35.7)
- price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=61.4)
- price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=-58.2)
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.