Ram 1500 TRX
Showing appreciation momentum: sale prices +0.0%/mo, and -8% vs 12-mo avg.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 1 yr, 1k mi example, ~$66.5K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Did our model work? 60% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 5 scored forecasts: 60% got the direction right, median value error ±8%.
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard live
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 7 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
| Closes | Car | Source | Our predicted range |
|---|---|---|---|
| open | 2024 · 59k mi | ebay | $33.4K–$128K ($65.4K) |
| open | 2024 · 59k mi | ebay | $33.3K–$128K ($65.3K) |
| open | 2022 | hagerty | $34.0K–$130K ($66.5K) |
| open | 2024 · 59k mi | ebay | $33.4K–$128K ($65.5K) |
| open | 2022 · 39k mi | ebay | $32.5K–$125K ($63.8K) |
| open | 2021 | C&B | $34.1K–$131K ($66.8K) |
| open | 2021 | C&B | $40.6K–$153K ($78.8K) |
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
| Horizon | Direction | Probability | Confidence | Past accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | UP | 44% | Low | 64% |
| 12 mo | FLAT | 50% | Low | 60% |
| 24 mo | FLAT | 50% | Low | — |
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. Trade-Weighted Dollar Index has historically led it by about 8 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
If You’d Bought in 2021
$100K invested 2021-07 → today (5.0 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
What This Market Follows
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
Trade-Weighted Dollar Index leads by about 8 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.56). Shown shifted forward 8 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Why We Think This
Current Inventory Snapshot
Comparable Markets
| Market | Undervaluation | Appreciation | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|
| Land Rover Defender 90 (Euro Spec) | 44 | 57 | 47 |
| Porsche Cayenne (958) 2011-2018 | 66 | 33 | 51 |
| Honda Acty | 52 | 57 | 53 |
| Subaru Baja | 61 | 58 | 49 |
| BMW F650GS | 41 | 51 | 59 |
| BMW R1250GS | 53 | 33 | 51 |
| Ford Bronco (2nd Generation) | 50 | 29 | 34 |
| Ford Bronco (3rd Generation, 1980-1986) | 63 | 62 | 39 |
Recent Signals & Alerts
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-27,645 vs prior
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-26,017 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$18,008 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$36,749 vs prior
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-26,017 vs prior
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-26,017 vs prior
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.