Toyota Pickup (N80/N90/N100/N110) 1989-1997
Flagged undervalued because asking -40% vs historic sold, -38% vs 2-yr avg, -39% vs 3-yr trend, and sell-through 100%.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 33 yr, 129k mi example, ~$14.0K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Did our model work? 59% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 37 scored forecasts: 59% got the direction right, median value error ±16%.
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard gavel in range 8 in 10
We replayed 270 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±26%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 8 in 10 of the time, and we lean slightly low on average.
| Sold | Car | Our range | Hammer | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-21 | 1989 · 260k mi | $5.1K–$14.7K | $7.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-05-20 | 1992 · 224k mi | $5.8K–$16.6K | $16.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-05-15 | 1994 · 69k mi | $7.8K–$22.4K | $8.1K | ✓ |
| 2026-05-07 | 1993 · 144k mi | $8.5K–$24.3K | $23.5K | ✓ |
| 2026-05-06 | 1992 · 98k mi | $8.8K–$25.4K | $25.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-05-04 | 1993 · 133k mi | $8.5K–$24.5K | $23.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-04-29 | 1991 · 47k mi | $8.0K–$22.9K | $11.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-04-26 | 1993 · 166k mi | $7.8K–$22.4K | $12.8K | ✓ |
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 8 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
| Closes | Car | Source | Our predicted range |
|---|---|---|---|
| open | 1989 | hagerty | $7.2K–$27.2K ($14.0K) |
| open | 1993 · 109k mi | classic | $7.3K–$27.4K ($14.1K) |
| open | 1990 · 142k mi | classic | $7.0K–$26.6K ($13.7K) |
| open | 1993 · 172k mi | classic | $6.1K–$22.9K ($11.8K) |
| open | 1993 · 150k mi | classic | $6.9K–$25.9K ($13.3K) |
| open | 1989 · 187k mi | classic | $5.6K–$21.3K ($11.0K) |
| open | 1993 · 188k mi | classic | $5.6K–$21.2K ($10.9K) |
| open | 1994 · 120k mi | classic | $7.2K–$27.1K ($13.9K) |
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
| Horizon | Direction | Probability | Confidence | Past accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | UP | 51% | Low | 65% |
| 12 mo | UP | 53% | Low | 59% |
| 24 mo | UP | 55% | Low | 60% |
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. High-Yield Bond Spread has historically led it by about 7 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling lower over the next ~12 months (low conviction — 29% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by Housing Starts and Nasdaq Composite, though 30-Year Mortgage Rate points the other way.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2021
$100K invested 2021-03 → today (5.2 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
What This Market Follows
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
30-Year Mortgage Rate leads by about 7 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.49). Shown shifted forward 7 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Why We Think This
Current Inventory Snapshot
Comparable Markets
| Market | Undervaluation | Appreciation | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|
| Land Rover Defender 90 (Euro Spec) | 41 | 67 | 47 |
| Porsche Cayenne (958) 2011-2018 | 52 | 60 | 52 |
| Honda Acty | 53 | 43 | 50 |
| Subaru Baja | 53 | 68 | 51 |
| BMW R1250GS | 61 | 36 | 75 |
| Ford Bronco (2nd Generation) | 36 | 51 | 41 |
| Ford Bronco (3rd Generation, 1980-1986) | 70 | 38 | 31 |
Recent Signals & Alerts
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-3,500 vs prior
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-3,500 vs prior
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.