Toyota Pickup (N80/N90/N100/N110) 1989-1997
Flagged undervalued because asking -42% vs historic sold, sell-through 94%, -17% vs 2-yr avg, and inventory -0%.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 33 yr, 128k mi example, ~$14.1K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Did our model work? 68% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 41 scored forecasts: 68% got the direction right, median value error ±16%.
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard gavel in range 8 in 10
We replayed 298 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±27%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 8 in 10 of the time, and we lean slightly low on average.
| Sold | Car | Our range | Hammer | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | 1992 · 191k mi | $5.6K–$21.8K | $26.5K | ✗ |
| 2026-09-02 | 1992 · 217k mi | $6.0K–$17.5K | $26.5K | ✗ |
| 2026-09-01 | 1992 · 72k mi | $8.2K–$23.8K | $17.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-08-31 | 1993 · 148k mi | $8.1K–$23.5K | $16.5K | ✓ |
| 2026-08-31 | 1994 · 87k mi | $8.1K–$23.6K | $13.5K | ✓ |
| 2026-08-31 | 1989 · 162k mi | $7.5K–$21.9K | $11.4K | ✓ |
| 2026-08-28 | 1991 · 74k mi | $8.1K–$23.7K | $17.5K | ✓ |
| 2026-08-22 | 1993 · 102k mi | $8.1K–$23.6K | $17.8K | ✓ |
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 8 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
| Closes | Car | Source | Our predicted range |
|---|---|---|---|
| open | 1994 · 121k mi | ebay | $7.0K–$27.4K ($13.9K) |
| open | 1993 · 275k mi | BaT | $4.3K–$16.8K ($8.5K) |
| open | 1993 · 82k mi | ebay | $7.0K–$27.4K ($13.9K) |
| open | 1991 · 58k mi | classic | $6.1K–$23.8K ($12.1K) |
| open | 1992 · 103k mi | classic | $7.0K–$27.3K ($13.9K) |
| open | 1991 · 68k mi | classic | $6.3K–$24.5K ($12.5K) |
| open | 1995 · 134k mi | classic | $7.0K–$26.9K ($13.8K) |
| open | 1993 · 109k mi | classic | $7.4K–$28.6K ($14.6K) |
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
| Horizon | Direction | Probability | Confidence | Past accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | UP | 49% | Low | 64% |
| 12 mo | UP | 50% | Low | 68% |
| 24 mo | UP | 51% | Low | 62% |
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. Housing Starts has historically led it by about 14 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling lower over the next ~12 months (low conviction — 23% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by Housing Starts and Dow Jones Industrial, though Housing Starts points the other way.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2021
$100K invested 2021-03 → today (5.5 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
What This Market Follows
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
30-Year Mortgage Rate leads by about 7 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.49). Shown shifted forward 7 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Why We Think This
Current Inventory Snapshot
Comparable Markets
| Market | Undervaluation | Appreciation | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|
| Land Rover Defender 90 (Euro Spec) | 50 | 59 | 42 |
| Porsche Cayenne (958) 2011-2018 | 33 | 68 | 49 |
| Honda Acty | 51 | 50 | 56 |
| Subaru Baja | 62 | 41 | 53 |
| BMW F650GS | 66 | 25 | 39 |
| BMW R1250GS | 53 | 43 | 36 |
| Ford Bronco (2nd Generation) | 64 | 36 | 49 |
| Ford Bronco (3rd Generation, 1980-1986) | 61 | 50 | 45 |
Recent Signals & Alerts
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-5,395 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$3,500 vs prior
- undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-5,395 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$3,500 vs prior
- undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.