Toyota Pickup (N30/N40) 1978-1983
Flagged undervalued because asking -52% vs historic sold, inventory -1%, and sell-through 86%.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 43 yr, 98k mi example, ~$10.6K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Did our model work? 59% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 37 scored forecasts: 59% got the direction right, median value error ±28%.
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard gavel in range 7 in 10
We replayed 112 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±30%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 7 in 10 of the time, and we lean slightly high on average.
| Sold | Car | Our range | Hammer | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-20 | 1982 · 157k mi | $7.0K–$20.4K | $23.5K | ✗ |
| 2026-09-16 | 1982 · 175k mi | $6.7K–$19.4K | $8.8K | ✓ |
| 2026-09-15 | 1981 · 5k mi | $7.3K–$21.2K | $20.6K | ✓ |
| 2026-09-08 | 1980 · 92k mi | $6.1K–$17.6K | $26.5K | ✗ |
| 2026-09-04 | 1979 · 29k mi | $6.7K–$19.4K | $61.0K | ✗ |
| 2026-08-17 | 1981 · 78k mi | $5.9K–$17.2K | $7.8K | ✓ |
| 2026-08-06 | 1982 · 203k mi | $6.2K–$17.9K | $28.3K | ✗ |
| 2026-08-04 | 1982 · 106k mi | $6.2K–$17.9K | $14.8K | ✓ |
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 7 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
| Closes | Car | Source | Our predicted range |
|---|---|---|---|
| open | 1980 · 53k mi | BaT | $5.5K–$21.7K ($11.0K) |
| open | 1981 | BaT | $5.4K–$21.3K ($10.8K) |
| open | 1983 | classic | $5.4K–$20.3K ($10.5K) |
| open | 1982 | classic | $5.4K–$20.3K ($10.5K) |
| open | 1983 · 183k mi | classic | $5.7K–$21.5K ($11.1K) |
| open | 1982 | classic | $5.4K–$20.3K ($10.5K) |
| open | 1982 · 300k mi | classic | $5.0K–$19.0K ($9.8K) |
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
| Horizon | Direction | Probability | Confidence | Past accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | DOWN | 49% | Low | 58% |
| 12 mo | FLAT | 50% | Low | 59% |
| 24 mo | UP | 54% | Low | 72% |
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. Unemployment Rate has historically led it by about 2 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
If You’d Bought in 2021
$100K invested 2021-03 → today (5.5 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
What This Market Follows
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
30-Year Mortgage Rate leads by about 0 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.45). Shown shifted forward 0 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Why We Think This
Current Inventory Snapshot
Comparable Markets
| Market | Undervaluation | Appreciation | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|
| Land Rover Defender 90 (Euro Spec) | 54 | 53 | 44 |
| Porsche Cayenne (958) 2011-2018 | 57 | 42 | 49 |
| Honda Acty | 52 | 40 | 56 |
| Subaru Baja | 44 | 68 | 52 |
| BMW F650GS | 86 | 8 | 55 |
| BMW R1250GS | 52 | 33 | 44 |
| Ford Bronco (2nd Generation) | 57 | 49 | 60 |
| Ford Bronco (3rd Generation, 1980-1986) | 65 | 39 | 47 |
Recent Signals & Alerts
- price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=-5.5)
- inventory shortage Inventory dropped (robust z=-3.3)
- inventory shortage Inventory dropped (robust z=-3.8)
- inventory shortage Inventory dropped (robust z=-3.1)
- inventory shortage Inventory dropped (robust z=-3.6)
- inventory shortage Inventory dropped (robust z=-4.5)
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.