Mitsubishi Pajero Evolution
Flagged undervalued because sell-through 100%, and -27% vs 3-yr trend.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 27 yr, 71k mi example, ~$38.3K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Did our model work? 67% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 15 scored forecasts: 67% got the direction right, median value error ±26%.
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard gavel in range 9 in 10
We replayed 60 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±20%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 9 in 10 of the time.
| Sold | Car | Our range | Hammer | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-30 | 1998 · 91k mi | $17.2K–$49.9K | $28.2K | ✓ |
| 2026-06-22 | 1997 · 62k mi | $19.6K–$57.1K | $31.6K | ✓ |
| 2026-05-28 | 1997 · 74k mi | $16.4K–$47.5K | $35.7K | ✓ |
| 2026-05-05 | 1997 · 72k mi | $16.6K–$48.2K | $70.9K | ✗ |
| 2026-05-03 | 1998 · 35k mi | $18.0K–$52.4K | $42.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-04-30 | 1997 · 17k mi | $18.2K–$52.8K | $50.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-03-17 | 1997 · 39k mi | $18.2K–$53.0K | $39.1K | ✓ |
| 2026-01-23 | 1997 · 7k mi | $19.5K–$56.7K | $33.5K | ✓ |
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 2 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
| Closes | Car | Source | Our predicted range |
|---|---|---|---|
| open | 1998 · 97k mi | classic | $16.5K–$63.7K ($32.4K) |
| open | 1997 · 175k mi | classic | $12.6K–$47.6K ($24.5K) |
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
| Horizon | Direction | Probability | Confidence | Past accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | DOWN | 56% | Low | 52% |
| 12 mo | DOWN | 58% | Low | 67% |
| 24 mo | DOWN | 60% | Low | 0% |
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling lower over the next ~12 months (low conviction — 28% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by Russell 2000 (small cap) and US Regular Gas Price, though US Regular Gas Price points the other way.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2022
$100K invested 2022-07 → today (4.1 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
What This Market Follows
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
10-Year Treasury Yield leads by about 20 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.65). Shown shifted forward 20 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Why We Think This
Current Inventory Snapshot
Comparable Markets
| Market | Undervaluation | Appreciation | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|
| Land Rover Defender 90 (Euro Spec) | 44 | 61 | 43 |
| Porsche Cayenne (958) 2011-2018 | 64 | 31 | 50 |
| Honda Acty | 50 | 53 | 57 |
| Subaru Baja | 59 | 45 | 49 |
| BMW F650GS | 45 | 42 | 36 |
| BMW R1250GS | 60 | 46 | 54 |
| Ford Bronco (2nd Generation) | 64 | 36 | 47 |
| Ford Bronco (3rd Generation, 1980-1986) | 61 | 57 | 30 |
Recent Signals & Alerts
- price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=-13.2)
- price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=6.9)
- price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=93.6)
- price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=190.4)
- price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=66.6)
- price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=134.9)
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.