Lexus LX470
Flagged undervalued because asking -44% vs historic sold, sell-through 100%, inventory -0%, and -31% vs 2-yr avg.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 21 yr, 146k mi example, ~$21.4K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Did our model work? 43% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 49 scored forecasts: 43% got the direction right, median value error ±28%.
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard gavel in range 9 in 10
We replayed 292 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±20%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 9 in 10 of the time, and we lean slightly high on average.
| Sold | Car | Our range | Hammer | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-07 | 2003 · 129k mi | $12.8K–$37.1K | $22.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-06-03 | 1998 · 328k mi | $7.9K–$23.1K | $5.5K | ✗ |
| 2026-05-31 | 2000 · 33k mi | $18.3K–$53.2K | $46.5K | ✓ |
| 2026-04-22 | 2001 · 172k mi | $11.1K–$32.3K | $17.5K | ✓ |
| 2026-04-19 | 2006 · 184k mi | $10.4K–$30.2K | $30.3K | ✗ |
| 2026-03-13 | 1999 · 65k mi | $18.3K–$53.2K | $45.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-03-08 | 2002 · 95k mi | $14.9K–$43.3K | $33.3K | ✓ |
| 2026-02-04 | 2000 · 197k mi | $9.4K–$27.3K | $17.6K | ✓ |
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 8 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
| Closes | Car | Source | Our predicted range |
|---|---|---|---|
| open | 2000 · 99k mi | BaT | $12.7K–$49.5K ($25.1K) |
| open | 1999 · 254k mi | BaT | $7.0K–$27.3K ($13.8K) |
| open | 2006 · 155k mi | BaT | $10.4K–$40.5K ($20.5K) |
| open | 2003 · 187k mi | BaT | $8.6K–$33.2K ($16.9K) |
| open | 2004 · 162k mi | BaT | $10.1K–$38.9K ($19.8K) |
| open | 2002 · 180k mi | ebay | $9.1K–$35.2K ($17.9K) |
| open | 2006 · 139k mi | ebay | $10.7K–$41.3K ($21.0K) |
| open | 2006 · 139k mi | ebay | $9.3K–$35.7K ($18.2K) |
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
| Horizon | Direction | Probability | Confidence | Past accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | UP | 47% | Low | 56% |
| 12 mo | UP | 48% | Low | 43% |
| 24 mo | UP | 48% | Low | 35% |
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. High-Yield Bond Spread has historically led it by about 9 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
If You’d Bought in 2020
$100K invested 2020-04 → today (6.3 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
What This Market Follows
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
High-Yield Bond Spread leads by about 9 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.74). Shown shifted forward 9 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Why We Think This
Current Inventory Snapshot
Comparable Markets
| Market | Undervaluation | Appreciation | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|
| Land Rover Defender 90 (Euro Spec) | 44 | 61 | 43 |
| Porsche Cayenne (958) 2011-2018 | 64 | 31 | 50 |
| Honda Acty | 50 | 53 | 57 |
| Subaru Baja | 59 | 45 | 49 |
| BMW F650GS | 45 | 42 | 36 |
| BMW R1250GS | 60 | 46 | 54 |
| Ford Bronco (2nd Generation) | 64 | 36 | 47 |
| Ford Bronco (3rd Generation, 1980-1986) | 61 | 57 | 30 |
Recent Signals & Alerts
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-8,000 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$3,000 vs prior
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-9,500 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$3,000 vs prior
- price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=4.9)
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$3,000 vs prior
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.