Land Rover LR4
Flagged undervalued because asking -13% vs historic sold, and sell-through 86%.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 10 yr, 91k mi example, ~$13.7K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Did our model work? 16% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 31 scored forecasts: 16% got the direction right, median value error ±20%.
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard gavel in range 9 in 10
We replayed 218 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±19%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 9 in 10 of the time, and we lean slightly high on average.
| Sold | Car | Our range | Hammer | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-30 | 2016 · 29k mi | $12.5K–$36.3K | $27.3K | ✓ |
| 2026-02-27 | 2016 · 103k mi | $7.5K–$21.7K | $14.5K | ✓ |
| 2026-02-08 | 2016 · 124k mi | $6.1K–$17.8K | $9.2K | ✓ |
| 2026-01-27 | 2016 · 69k mi | $11.3K–$32.8K | $20.8K | ✓ |
| 2026-01-27 | 2013 · 127k mi | $6.0K–$17.4K | $9.9K | ✓ |
| 2026-01-24 | 2013 · 113k mi | $6.8K–$19.7K | $8.9K | ✓ |
| 2026-01-23 | 2011 · 85k mi | $9.1K–$26.5K | $15.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-01-21 | 2014 · 67k mi | $11.6K–$33.8K | $11.3K | ✗ |
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 8 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
| Closes | Car | Source | Our predicted range |
|---|---|---|---|
| open | 2016 | C&B | $7.0K–$27.1K ($13.7K) |
| open | 2012 | C&B | $7.0K–$27.0K ($13.7K) |
| open | 2016 · 75k mi | ebay | $8.5K–$32.8K ($16.7K) |
| open | 2014 · 65k mi | classic | $9.7K–$37.3K ($19.0K) |
| open | 2016 · 71k mi | classic | $8.9K–$34.1K ($17.4K) |
| open | 2016 · 71k mi | classic | $8.8K–$34.2K ($17.4K) |
| open | 2015 · 101k mi | classic | $6.2K–$23.8K ($12.1K) |
| open | 2016 · 114k mi | classic | $5.4K–$21.0K ($10.7K) |
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
| Horizon | Direction | Probability | Confidence | Past accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | UP | 44% | Low | 35% |
| 12 mo | DOWN | 57% | Low | 16% |
| 24 mo | DOWN | 58% | Low | 5% |
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. High-Yield Bond Spread has historically led it by about 7 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling higher over the next ~12 months (high conviction — 73% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by Trade-Weighted Dollar Index and Bitcoin (USD), though Trade-Weighted Dollar Index points the other way.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2021
$100K invested 2021-04 → today (5.3 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
What This Market Follows
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
High-Yield Bond Spread leads by about 7 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.73). Shown shifted forward 7 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Why We Think This
Current Inventory Snapshot
Comparable Markets
| Market | Undervaluation | Appreciation | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|
| Land Rover Defender 90 (Euro Spec) | 44 | 61 | 43 |
| Porsche Cayenne (958) 2011-2018 | 64 | 31 | 50 |
| Honda Acty | 50 | 53 | 57 |
| Subaru Baja | 59 | 45 | 49 |
| BMW F650GS | 45 | 42 | 36 |
| BMW R1250GS | 60 | 46 | 54 |
| Ford Bronco (2nd Generation) | 64 | 36 | 47 |
| Ford Bronco (3rd Generation, 1980-1986) | 61 | 57 | 30 |
Recent Signals & Alerts
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-5,000 vs prior
- undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
- price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=-4.9)
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-5,000 vs prior
- undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-5,000 vs prior
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.