Land Rover LR4
Flagged undervalued because asking -20% vs historic sold, -18% vs 3-yr trend, and -12% vs 2-yr avg.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 10 yr, 90k mi example, ~$14.0K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Did our model work? 16% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 32 scored forecasts: 16% got the direction right, median value error ±27%.
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard gavel in range 9 in 10
We replayed 219 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±20%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 9 in 10 of the time, and we lean slightly high on average.
| Sold | Car | Our range | Hammer | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-21 | 2012 · 73k mi | $10.0K–$29.0K | $16.5K | ✓ |
| 2026-03-30 | 2016 · 29k mi | $12.7K–$36.7K | $27.3K | ✓ |
| 2026-02-27 | 2016 · 103k mi | $7.5K–$21.8K | $14.5K | ✓ |
| 2026-02-08 | 2016 · 124k mi | $6.1K–$17.6K | $9.2K | ✓ |
| 2026-01-27 | 2016 · 69k mi | $11.3K–$32.8K | $20.8K | ✓ |
| 2026-01-27 | 2013 · 127k mi | $5.9K–$17.2K | $9.9K | ✓ |
| 2026-01-24 | 2013 · 113k mi | $6.8K–$19.6K | $8.9K | ✓ |
| 2026-01-23 | 2011 · 85k mi | $9.2K–$26.5K | $15.0K | ✓ |
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 8 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
| Closes | Car | Source | Our predicted range |
|---|---|---|---|
| open | 2012 · 130k mi | ebay | $4.7K–$18.4K ($9.3K) |
| open | 2015 · 123k mi | ebay | $5.0K–$19.7K ($10.0K) |
| open | 2010 · 98k mi | ebay | $6.4K–$24.5K ($12.5K) |
| open | 2010 · 98k mi | ebay | $6.5K–$24.9K ($12.7K) |
| open | 2010 · 98k mi | ebay | $6.5K–$24.4K ($12.6K) |
| open | 2016 · 122k mi | ebay | $5.2K–$19.4K ($10.0K) |
| open | 2010 | ebay | $6.9K–$25.8K ($13.3K) |
| open | 2016 · 122k mi | ebay | $4.9K–$18.5K ($9.5K) |
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
| Horizon | Direction | Probability | Confidence | Past accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | FLAT | 50% | Low | 34% |
| 12 mo | UP | 40% | Low | 16% |
| 24 mo | DOWN | 63% | Low | 0% |
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
If You’d Bought in 2021
$100K invested 2021-04 → today (5.4 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
What This Market Follows
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
High-Yield Bond Spread leads by about 23 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.69). Shown shifted forward 23 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Why We Think This
Current Inventory Snapshot
Comparable Markets
| Market | Undervaluation | Appreciation | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|
| Land Rover Defender 90 (Euro Spec) | 54 | 53 | 44 |
| Porsche Cayenne (958) 2011-2018 | 57 | 42 | 49 |
| Honda Acty | 52 | 40 | 56 |
| Subaru Baja | 44 | 68 | 52 |
| BMW F650GS | 86 | 8 | 55 |
| BMW R1250GS | 52 | 33 | 44 |
| Ford Bronco (2nd Generation) | 57 | 49 | 60 |
| Ford Bronco (3rd Generation, 1980-1986) | 65 | 39 | 47 |
Recent Signals & Alerts
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-5,000 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$2,895 vs prior
- inventory shortage Inventory dropped (robust z=-3.0)
- undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-5,000 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$5,606 vs prior
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.