Tracking 2 sales in the last 90 days. We'll publish a confident 12-month outlook once 3 more sales close — at this market's typical pace, that's roughly ~4 months.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 12 yr, 3k mi example, ~$263K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Building historyNot enough data to chart yet — check back as sales accrue.
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 21 scored forecasts: 95% got the direction right, median value error ±426%.
Track record buildingNot enough graded forecasts yet to show accuracy.
━ actual╱ past predictions (ghosts)
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard gavel in range 9 in 10
We replayed 34 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±7%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 9 in 10 of the time, and we lean slightly low on average.
Sold
Car
Our range
Hammer
2026-04-29
2012 · 1k mi
$582K–$1265K
$1810K
✗
2025-11-14
2012 · 14k mi
$539K–$1173K
$676K
✓
2025-10-11
2012 · 6k mi
$570K–$1238K
$830K
✓
2025-09-05
2012 · 10k mi
$567K–$1232K
$785K
✓
2025-08-13
2012 · 4k mi
$591K–$1284K
$810K
✓
2025-05-26
2011 · 9k mi
$557K–$1210K
$783K
✓
2025-04-17
2012 · 4k mi
$576K–$1251K
$875K
✓
2024-10-17
2012 · 2k mi
$535K–$1544K
$860K
✓
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
If You’d Bought in 2018
$100K invested 2018-01 → today (8.7 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
━ This car $62.6K━ S&P 500 $316K━ Gold $326K━ Luxury $213K━ Housing $172K₿ Bitcoin $760K (off-scale)
Lost ground to inflation. The Lexus LFA roughly 0.6×'d your money (a real 53% LOSS to inflation). It LAGGED the stock market by about 80% — the same money in the S&P 500 would be larger. It trailed housing (-64%). (Price only — a real round-trip also loses ~10–20% to buy/sell fees and carrying costs.)
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
Advance Retail Sales leads by about 1 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.97). Shown shifted forward 1 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Lexus LFA┄ Advance Retail Sales, shifted +1mo
Case-Shiller National Home Price leads by about 7 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.97). Shown shifted forward 7 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Lexus LFA┄ Case-Shiller National Home Price, shifted +7mo
PCE Price Index leads by about 3 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.97). Shown shifted forward 3 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Lexus LFA┄ PCE Price Index, shifted +3mo
CPI (All Urban Consumers) leads by about 3 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.96). Shown shifted forward 3 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Core CPI (ex food/energy) leads by about 24 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.96). Shown shifted forward 24 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Lexus LFA┄ Core CPI (ex food/energy), shifted +24mo
Gold (futures) leads by about 0 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.93). Shown shifted forward 0 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Lexus LFA┄ Gold (futures), shifted +0mo
S&P 500 leads by about 9 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.92). Shown shifted forward 9 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Lexus LFA┄ S&P 500, shifted +9mo
Dow Jones Industrial leads by about 14 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.92). Shown shifted forward 14 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Lexus LFA┄ Dow Jones Industrial, shifted +14mo
Why We Think This
Appreciation Momentum
88
Undervaluation
36
Liquidity
52
Speculation Opportunity
35
Depreciation Risk
66
Overvaluation
67
asking +45% vs historic soldasking vs historic spread
vin returned higher VIN relisted +$675,000 vs prior
vin returned higher VIN relisted +$675,000 vs prior
vin returned higher VIN relisted +$675,000 vs prior
vin returned higher VIN relisted +$675,000 vs prior
vin returned higher VIN relisted +$675,000 vs prior
vin returned higher VIN relisted +$675,085 vs prior
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
