Lexus LFA
Flagged undervalued because -98% vs 2-yr avg, -98% vs 3-yr trend, and sell-through 100%.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 12 yr, 2k mi example, ~$721K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Did our model work? 77% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 26 scored forecasts: 77% got the direction right, median value error ±690%.
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard gavel in range 9 in 10
We replayed 34 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±7%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 9 in 10 of the time.
| Sold | Car | Our range | Hammer | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-29 | 2012 · 1k mi | $575K–$1257K | $1810K | ✗ |
| 2025-11-14 | 2012 · 14k mi | $547K–$1194K | $676K | ✓ |
| 2025-10-11 | 2012 · 6k mi | $571K–$1246K | $830K | ✓ |
| 2025-09-05 | 2012 · 10k mi | $568K–$1241K | $785K | ✓ |
| 2025-08-13 | 2012 · 4k mi | $598K–$1305K | $810K | ✓ |
| 2025-05-26 | 2011 · 9k mi | $565K–$1233K | $783K | ✓ |
| 2025-04-17 | 2012 · 4k mi | $587K–$1282K | $875K | ✓ |
| 2024-10-17 | 2012 · 2k mi | $535K–$1544K | $860K | ✓ |
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
| Horizon | Direction | Probability | Confidence | Past accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | UP | 58% | Low | 66% |
| 12 mo | UP | 61% | Low | 77% |
| 24 mo | UP | 66% | Low | 64% |
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. Nonfarm Payrolls (jobs) has historically led it by about 3 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling lower over the next ~12 months (low conviction — 24% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by Nonfarm Payrolls (jobs) and 10Y-2Y Yield Spread, though 10Y-2Y Yield Spread points the other way.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2018
$100K invested 2018-01 → today (8.5 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
What This Market Follows
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
Case-Shiller National Home Price leads by about 1 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.83). Shown shifted forward 1 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Why We Think This
Current Inventory Snapshot
Comparable Markets
| Market | Undervaluation | Appreciation | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ferrari 296 GTB/GTS | 54 | 58 | 45 |
| Ferrari 360 | 28 | 74 | 49 |
| Ferrari 360 Challenge Stradale | 0 | 80 | 54 |
| Ferrari 458 | 44 | 41 | 53 |
| Ferrari 458 Speciale | 6 | 77 | 53 |
| Ferrari 458 Speciale Aperta | 0 | 67 | 53 |
| Ferrari 488 | 36 | 63 | 48 |
| Ferrari 488 Pista | 10 | 36 | 47 |
Recent Signals & Alerts
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-530,100 vs prior
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-530,100 vs prior
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-530,100 vs prior
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-530,100 vs prior
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-530,100 vs prior
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-530,100 vs prior
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.