Tracking 1 sale in the last 90 days. We'll publish a confident 12-month outlook once 4 more sales close — at this market's typical pace, that's roughly ~4 months.

What It's Actually Worth

Blended value of a standard 12 yr, 2k mi example, ~$850K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.

━ blended true value ● confirmed auction sales (dot size = volume)

◫ 51 confirmed sales·81 months tracked·since 2019-04·2 active listings

Did our model work? 90% direction calls right

Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 10 scored forecasts: 90% got the direction right, median value error ±62%.

━ actual ╱ past predictions (ghosts)

Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.

Auction Scorecard gavel in range 8 in 10

We replayed 32 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±6%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 8 in 10 of the time, and we lean slightly low on average.

Sold	Car	Our range	Hammer
2026-04-29	2012 · 1k mi	$621K–$1380K	$1810K	✗
2025-11-14	2012 · 14k mi	$525K–$1168K	$676K	✓
2025-10-11	2012 · 6k mi	$547K–$1217K	$830K	✓
2025-09-05	2012 · 10k mi	$536K–$1191K	$785K	✓
2025-08-13	2012 · 4k mi	$566K–$1258K	$810K	✓
2025-05-26	2011 · 9k mi	$541K–$1203K	$783K	✓
2025-04-17	2012 · 4k mi	$564K–$1255K	$875K	✓
2024-10-17	2012 · 2k mi	$535K–$1544K	$860K	✓

No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.

Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal

Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling lower over the next ~12 months (moderate conviction — 53% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by LVMH (luxury proxy ADR) and VIX Volatility Index, though WTI Crude Oil points the other way.

⚠ The price trend and leading indicators disagree — momentum may be running ahead of the fundamentals.

Are the indicators agreeing?

Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.

If You’d Bought in 2019

$100K invested 2019-04 → today (7.2 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).

━ This car $238K━ S&P 500 $288K━ Gold $354K━ Luxury $181K━ Housing $159K₿ Bitcoin ×12 (off-scale)

Solid store of value, but lagged the stock market. The Lexus LFA roughly 2.4×'d your money (a real, inflation-adjusted 1.8× gain). It LAGGED the stock market by about 18% — the same money in the S&P 500 would be larger. It beat housing (+50%). (Price only — a real round-trip also loses ~10–20% to buy/sell fees and carrying costs.)

What This Market Follows

Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.

Advance Retail Sales leads by about 1 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.94). Shown shifted forward 1 months so its turns line up with the market's.

━ Lexus LFA ┄ Advance Retail Sales, shifted +1mo

Why We Think This

+273% vs 2-yr avg pct vs trailing 24mo

asking -24% vs historic sold asking vs historic spread

sell-through 100% sell through rate

+163% vs 12-mo avg pct vs trailing 12mo

sale prices +5.2%/mo median sale trend slope

Current Inventory Snapshot

Active priced listings2

Median fair value$862,363

Avg deal score75/100

Comparable Markets

Market	Undervaluation	Appreciation	Liquidity
Ferrari 296 GTB/GTS	53	58	40
Ferrari 360	57	36	39
Ferrari 458	54	31	51
Ferrari 488	52	38	47
Ferrari 550/575 Maranello	56	47	54
McLaren 570S	51	55	52
Ferrari 599 GTB	46	33	49
McLaren 720S	51	47	44

Recent Signals & Alerts

vin returned lower VIN relisted $-530,100 vs prior
vin returned lower VIN relisted $-530,100 vs prior
vin returned lower VIN relisted $-530,100 vs prior
vin returned lower VIN relisted $-530,100 vs prior
vin returned lower VIN relisted $-530,100 vs prior

Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.