Toyota Land Cruiser 100 Series
Flagged undervalued because asking -28% vs historic sold, sell-through 100%, -17% vs 2-yr avg, and -14% vs 3-yr trend.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 23 yr, 141k mi example, ~$20.0K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Did our model work? 51% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 39 scored forecasts: 51% got the direction right, median value error ±13%.
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard gavel in range 8 in 10
We replayed 458 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±26%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 8 in 10 of the time, and we lean slightly low on average.
| Sold | Car | Our range | Hammer | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-29 | 1999 · 287k mi | $7.3K–$20.9K | $23.0K | ✗ |
| 2026-05-22 | 2006 · 255k mi | $7.3K–$20.9K | $44.0K | ✗ |
| 2026-05-21 | 1999 · 94k mi | $15.4K–$44.2K | $24.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-05-19 | 2004 · 130k mi | $12.2K–$35.1K | $33.5K | ✓ |
| 2026-05-18 | 1999 · 60k mi | $17.4K–$49.8K | $54.8K | ✗ |
| 2026-05-16 | 2000 · 36k mi | $17.0K–$48.7K | $40.7K | ✓ |
| 2026-05-15 | 2002 · 79k mi | $16.4K–$47.0K | $35.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-05-13 | 2002 · 236k mi | $7.7K–$22.0K | $13.0K | ✓ |
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 8 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
| Closes | Car | Source | Our predicted range |
|---|---|---|---|
| open | 1999 · 88k mi | classic | $13.5K–$50.9K ($26.2K) |
| open | 1999 | C&B | $10.3K–$39.0K ($20.1K) |
| open | 2000 · 265k mi | ebay | $6.7K–$25.2K ($13.0K) |
| open | 2007 · 129k mi | classic | $10.4K–$39.3K ($20.2K) |
| open | 2000 · 205k mi | classic | $7.2K–$27.1K ($14.0K) |
| open | 2003 · 212k mi | classic | $7.0K–$26.5K ($13.6K) |
| open | 2001 · 224k mi | classic | $6.7K–$25.4K ($13.1K) |
| open | 2005 · 247k mi | classic | $6.2K–$23.6K ($12.1K) |
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
| Horizon | Direction | Probability | Confidence | Past accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | UP | 49% | Low | 56% |
| 12 mo | UP | 51% | Low | 51% |
| 24 mo | UP | 52% | Low | 37% |
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. Trade-Weighted Dollar Index has historically led it by about 14 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling lower over the next ~12 months (high conviction — 77% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by Trade-Weighted Dollar Index and Initial Jobless Claims, though US Regular Gas Price points the other way.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2020
$100K invested 2020-03 → today (6.2 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
What This Market Follows
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
WTI Crude Oil leads by about 0 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.57). Shown shifted forward 0 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Why We Think This
Current Inventory Snapshot
Comparable Markets
| Market | Undervaluation | Appreciation | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|
| Land Rover Defender 90 (Euro Spec) | 41 | 67 | 47 |
| Porsche Cayenne (958) 2011-2018 | 52 | 60 | 52 |
| Honda Acty | 53 | 43 | 50 |
| Subaru Baja | 53 | 68 | 51 |
| BMW R1250GS | 61 | 36 | 75 |
| Ford Bronco (2nd Generation) | 36 | 51 | 41 |
| Ford Bronco (3rd Generation, 1980-1986) | 70 | 38 | 31 |
Recent Signals & Alerts
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-11,313 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$2,500 vs prior
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-3,944 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$2,500 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$2,500 vs prior
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-3,944 vs prior
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.