Tracking 3 sales in the last 90 days. We'll publish a confident 12-month outlook once 2 more sales close — at this market's typical pace, that's roughly ~3 months.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 11 yr, 2k mi example, ~$5981K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 6 scored forecasts: 100% got the direction right, median value error ±34%.
━ actual╱ past predictions (ghosts)
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
If You’d Bought in 2017
$100K invested 2017-08 → today (9.0 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
━ This car $162K━ S&P 500 $368K━ Gold $339K━ Luxury $286K━ Housing $172K₿ Bitcoin ×14 (off-scale)
Solid store of value, but lagged the stock market. The Ferrari LaFerrari roughly 1.6×'d your money (a real, inflation-adjusted 1.2× gain). It LAGGED the stock market by about 56% — the same money in the S&P 500 would be larger. It trailed housing (-6%). (Price only — a real round-trip also loses ~10–20% to buy/sell fees and carrying costs.)
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
Advance Retail Sales leads by about 20 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.98). Shown shifted forward 20 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Ferrari LaFerrari┄ Advance Retail Sales, shifted +20mo
Core CPI (ex food/energy) leads by about 19 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.96). Shown shifted forward 19 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Ferrari LaFerrari┄ Core CPI (ex food/energy), shifted +19mo
CPI (All Urban Consumers) leads by about 19 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.96). Shown shifted forward 19 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Ferrari LaFerrari┄ CPI (All Urban Consumers), shifted +19mo
PCE Price Index leads by about 20 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.96). Shown shifted forward 20 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Ferrari LaFerrari┄ PCE Price Index, shifted +20mo
Case-Shiller National Home Price leads by about 11 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.96). Shown shifted forward 11 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Ferrari LaFerrari┄ Case-Shiller National Home Price, shifted +11mo
Nonfarm Payrolls (jobs) leads by about 0 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.95). Shown shifted forward 0 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Ferrari LaFerrari┄ Nonfarm Payrolls (jobs), shifted +0mo
S&P 500 leads by about 21 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.95). Shown shifted forward 21 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Ferrari LaFerrari┄ S&P 500, shifted +21mo
Dow Jones Industrial leads by about 18 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.95). Shown shifted forward 18 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Ferrari LaFerrari┄ Dow Jones Industrial, shifted +18mo
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.