Lexus GX
Flagged undervalued because sell-through 100%.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 18 yr, 157k mi example, ~$18.6K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Did our model work? 47% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 34 scored forecasts: 47% got the direction right, median value error ±13%.
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard gavel in range 9 in 10
We replayed 193 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±22%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 9 in 10 of the time, and we lean slightly high on average.
| Sold | Car | Our range | Hammer | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-26 | 2006 · 153k mi | $10.6K–$30.5K | $12.3K | ✓ |
| 2026-05-16 | 2022 · 42k mi | $16.1K–$46.2K | $55.0K | ✗ |
| 2026-05-15 | 2004 · 82k mi | $15.7K–$45.1K | $6.6K | ✗ |
| 2026-05-13 | 2006 · 258k mi | $7.2K–$20.5K | $9.3K | ✓ |
| 2026-05-12 | 2016 · 104k mi | $15.2K–$43.6K | $23.5K | ✓ |
| 2026-05-12 | 2004 · 192k mi | $8.5K–$24.3K | $12.5K | ✓ |
| 2026-05-08 | 2006 · 77k mi | $15.6K–$44.9K | $36.5K | ✓ |
| 2026-05-04 | 2008 · 104k mi | $15.2K–$43.7K | $32.0K | ✓ |
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 8 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
| Closes | Car | Source | Our predicted range |
|---|---|---|---|
| open | 2021 · 41k mi | classic | $14.6K–$54.9K ($28.3K) |
| open | 2018 · 46k mi | classic | $14.4K–$54.4K ($28.0K) |
| open | 2023 · 29k mi | classic | $11.9K–$44.7K ($23.0K) |
| open | 2015 · 165k mi | classic | $8.8K–$33.4K ($17.2K) |
| open | 2016 · 90k mi | ebay | $14.3K–$54.0K ($27.8K) |
| open | 2023 · 34k mi | classic | $13.6K–$51.2K ($26.3K) |
| open | 2008 · 131k mi | classic | $11.0K–$41.5K ($21.3K) |
| open | 2004 · 153k mi | ebay | $9.5K–$36.0K ($18.5K) |
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
| Horizon | Direction | Probability | Confidence | Past accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | UP | 45% | Low | 70% |
| 12 mo | DOWN | 55% | Low | 47% |
| 24 mo | DOWN | 55% | Low | 45% |
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. High-Yield Bond Spread has historically led it by about 3 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling higher over the next ~12 months (high conviction — 100% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by Trade-Weighted Dollar Index and LVMH (luxury proxy ADR).
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2017
$100K invested 2017-01 → today (9.4 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
What This Market Follows
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
High-Yield Bond Spread leads by about 3 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.65). Shown shifted forward 3 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Why We Think This
Current Inventory Snapshot
Comparable Markets
| Market | Undervaluation | Appreciation | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|
| Land Rover Defender 90 (Euro Spec) | 41 | 67 | 47 |
| Porsche Cayenne (958) 2011-2018 | 52 | 60 | 52 |
| Honda Acty | 53 | 43 | 50 |
| Subaru Baja | 53 | 68 | 51 |
| BMW R1250GS | 61 | 36 | 75 |
| Ford Bronco (2nd Generation) | 36 | 51 | 41 |
| Ford Bronco (3rd Generation, 1980-1986) | 70 | 38 | 31 |
Recent Signals & Alerts
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$10,994 vs prior
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-6,977 vs prior
- undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-8,000 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$10,994 vs prior
- undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.