Lexus GX
Flagged undervalued because sell-through 100%.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 18 yr, 141k mi example, ~$20.2K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Did our model work? 50% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 36 scored forecasts: 50% got the direction right, median value error ±17%.
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard gavel in range 9 in 10
We replayed 180 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±20%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 9 in 10 of the time, and we lean slightly high on average.
| Sold | Car | Our range | Hammer | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-16 | 2014 · 126k mi | $12.6K–$36.7K | $28.5K | ✓ |
| 2026-07-15 | 2008 · 97k mi | $15.8K–$45.8K | $19.8K | ✓ |
| 2026-07-14 | 2009 · 83k mi | $16.0K–$46.6K | $21.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-07-10 | 2008 · 166k mi | $9.9K–$28.7K | $16.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-07-08 | 2011 · 70k mi | $16.3K–$47.5K | $20.8K | ✓ |
| 2026-07-07 | 2007 · 136k mi | $11.8K–$34.3K | $15.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-07-05 | 2006 · 111k mi | $14.1K–$41.1K | $26.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-07-03 | 2007 · 130k mi | $12.3K–$35.8K | $12.0K | ✗ |
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 8 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
| Closes | Car | Source | Our predicted range |
|---|---|---|---|
| open | 2018 · 55k mi | classic | $14.5K–$55.8K ($28.4K) |
| open | 2008 · 140k mi | ebay | $10.1K–$38.8K ($19.8K) |
| open | 2018 · 43k mi | classic | $14.7K–$56.7K ($28.8K) |
| open | 2021 · 46k mi | classic | $14.6K–$56.4K ($28.7K) |
| open | 2022 · 49k mi | classic | $14.6K–$56.2K ($28.6K) |
| open | 2023 · 50k mi | classic | $14.6K–$56.2K ($28.6K) |
| open | 2021 · 61k mi | classic | $14.4K–$55.6K ($28.3K) |
| open | 2017 · 66k mi | classic | $14.3K–$55.2K ($28.1K) |
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
| Horizon | Direction | Probability | Confidence | Past accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | DOWN | 54% | Low | 57% |
| 12 mo | UP | 46% | Low | 50% |
| 24 mo | UP | 46% | Low | 38% |
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. U. Michigan Consumer Sentiment has historically led it by about 4 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling higher over the next ~12 months (low conviction — 22% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by Gold (futures) and Bitcoin (USD), though Gold (futures) points the other way.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2021
$100K invested 2021-06 → today (5.1 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
What This Market Follows
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
U. Michigan Consumer Sentiment leads by about 4 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.56). Shown shifted forward 4 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Why We Think This
Current Inventory Snapshot
Comparable Markets
| Market | Undervaluation | Appreciation | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|
| Land Rover Defender 90 (Euro Spec) | 43 | 58 | 46 |
| Porsche Cayenne (958) 2011-2018 | 65 | 33 | 52 |
| Honda Acty | 52 | 53 | 52 |
| Subaru Baja | 65 | 48 | 51 |
| BMW F650GS | 38 | 48 | 51 |
| BMW R1250GS | 56 | 39 | 50 |
| Ford Bronco (2nd Generation) | 53 | 34 | 29 |
| Ford Bronco (3rd Generation, 1980-1986) | 61 | 59 | 37 |
Recent Signals & Alerts
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-8,098 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$5,900 vs prior
- undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$7,175 vs prior
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-8,098 vs prior
- undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.