Blended value of a standard 19 yr, 213k mi example, ~$7.6K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 4 scored forecasts: 75% got the direction right, median value error ±40%.
━ actual╱ past predictions (ghosts)
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
Horizon
Direction
Probability
Confidence
Past accuracy
6 mo
DOWN
61%
Low
80%
12 mo
DOWN
64%
Low
75%
24 mo
DOWN
68%
Low
—
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
If You’d Bought in 2019
$100K invested 2019-08 → today (7.1 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
━ This car $69.8K━ S&P 500 $279K━ Gold $274K━ Luxury $138K━ Housing $159K₿ Bitcoin $864K (off-scale)
Lost ground to inflation. The Lexus GX 470 roughly 0.7×'d your money (a real 47% LOSS to inflation). It LAGGED the stock market by about 75% — the same money in the S&P 500 would be larger. It trailed housing (-56%). (Price only — a real round-trip also loses ~10–20% to buy/sell fees and carrying costs.)
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
Russell 2000 (small cap) leads by about 20 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.88). Shown shifted forward 20 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Lexus GX 470┄ Russell 2000 (small cap), shifted +20mo
Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY) leads by about 20 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.85). Shown shifted forward 20 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Dow Jones Industrial leads by about 20 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.84). Shown shifted forward 20 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Lexus GX 470┄ Dow Jones Industrial, shifted +20mo
Case-Shiller National Home Price leads by about 22 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.83). Shown shifted forward 22 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Lexus GX 470┄ Case-Shiller National Home Price, shifted +22mo
Advance Retail Sales leads by about 4 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.82). Shown shifted forward 4 months so its turns line up with the market's.
S&P 500 leads by about 20 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.82). Shown shifted forward 20 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Lexus GX 470┄ S&P 500, shifted +20mo
Gold (futures) leads by about 23 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.82). Shown shifted forward 23 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Lexus GX 470┄ Gold (futures), shifted +23mo
Nasdaq Composite leads by about 20 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.82). Shown shifted forward 20 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Lexus GX 470┄ Nasdaq Composite, shifted +20mo
Why We Think This
Appreciation Momentum
37
Undervaluation
56
Liquidity
29
Speculation Opportunity
23
Depreciation Risk
77
Overvaluation
54
-21% vs 2-yr avgpct vs trailing 24mo
inventory +0%inventory trend slope
sale prices -1.8%/momedian sale trend slope
asking trend +0.2%/momedian asking trend slope
-9% vs 12-mo avgpct vs trailing 12mo
105 days on marketmedian days on market
33% of listings cutting priceprice drop frequency
new-listing velocity 1% of activenew listing velocity
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.