Ford GT40 Replica
Flagged undervalued because -90% vs 2-yr avg, -89% vs 3-yr trend, and sell-through 94%.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 57 yr, 1k mi example, ~$241K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Did our model work? 68% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 31 scored forecasts: 68% got the direction right, median value error ±78%.
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard live
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 8 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
| Closes | Car | Source | Our predicted range |
|---|---|---|---|
| open | 1968 · 4k mi | classic | $298K–$836K ($499K) |
| open | 1968 · 3k mi | classic | $135K–$390K ($229K) |
| open | 2008 | classic | $77.8K–$224K ($132K) |
| open | 1968 | classic | $77.8K–$224K ($132K) |
| open | 1969 · 4k mi | classic | $110K–$316K ($186K) |
| open | 1965 · 3k mi | classic | $97.0K–$280K ($165K) |
| open | 1965 · 6k mi | classic | $155K–$447K ($263K) |
| open | 1969 · 0k mi | classic | $28.0K–$80.9K ($47.6K) |
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
| Horizon | Direction | Probability | Confidence | Past accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | UP | 51% | Low | 70% |
| 12 mo | UP | 52% | Low | 68% |
| 24 mo | UP | 53% | Low | 63% |
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. Initial Jobless Claims has historically led it by about 3 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling lower over the next ~12 months (moderate conviction — 52% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by Personal Savings Rate and VIX Volatility Index, though Trade-Weighted Dollar Index points the other way.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2007
$100K invested 2007-11 → today (18.8 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
What This Market Follows
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
Initial Jobless Claims leads by about 3 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.46). Shown shifted forward 3 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Why We Think This
Current Inventory Snapshot
Comparable Markets
| Market | Undervaluation | Appreciation | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ferrari 296 GTB/GTS | 44 | 56 | 36 |
| Ferrari 360 | 39 | 70 | 51 |
| Ferrari 360 Challenge Stradale | 0 | 67 | 56 |
| Ferrari 458 | 45 | 40 | 52 |
| Ferrari 458 Speciale | 2 | 57 | 41 |
| Ferrari 458 Speciale Aperta | 0 | 77 | 42 |
| Ferrari 488 | 36 | 57 | 45 |
| Ferrari 488 Pista | 8 | 54 | 44 |
Recent Signals & Alerts
- inventory spike Inventory spiked (robust z=3.4)
- inventory spike Inventory spiked (robust z=3.4)
- price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=73.5)
- price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=-145.7)
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.