Ford GT
Flagged undervalued because -65% vs 2-yr avg, and -63% vs 3-yr trend.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 19 yr, 3k mi example, ~$562K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Did our model work? 70% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 108 scored forecasts: 70% got the direction right, median value error ±29%.
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard gavel in range 9 in 10
We replayed 369 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±10%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 9 in 10 of the time, and we lean slightly low on average.
| Sold | Car | Our range | Hammer | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-08 | 2005 · 11k mi | $328K–$717K | $535K | ✓ |
| 2026-06-24 | 2006 · 5k mi | $356K–$777K | $794K | ✗ |
| 2026-06-11 | 2006 · 11k mi | $324K–$708K | $530K | ✓ |
| 2026-06-03 | 2006 · 22k mi | $316K–$690K | $725K | ✗ |
| 2026-05-27 | 2005 · 36k mi | $298K–$651K | $398K | ✓ |
| 2026-05-22 | 2005 · 2k mi | $370K–$808K | $588K | ✓ |
| 2026-05-16 | 2006 · 0k mi | $404K–$883K | $1293K | ✗ |
| 2026-05-16 | 2006 · 5k mi | $352K–$769K | $605K | ✓ |
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 8 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
| Closes | Car | Source | Our predicted range |
|---|---|---|---|
| open | 2005 · 11k mi | classic | $295K–$832K ($495K) |
| open | 2005 · 2k mi | classic | $344K–$969K ($577K) |
| open | 2006 · 0k mi | classic | $378K–$1061K ($633K) |
| open | 2006 · 1k mi | classic | $365K–$1025K ($612K) |
| open | 2006 · 11k mi | classic | $299K–$840K ($501K) |
| open | 2006 · 24k mi | classic | $288K–$810K ($484K) |
| open | 2005 · 8k mi | classic | $300K–$834K ($500K) |
| open | 2005 · 10k mi | classic | $294K–$817K ($490K) |
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
| Horizon | Direction | Probability | Confidence | Past accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | UP | 55% | Low | 63% |
| 12 mo | UP | 58% | Low | 70% |
| 24 mo | UP | 61% | Low | 92% |
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling higher over the next ~12 months (moderate conviction — 53% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by Ethereum (USD) and Nasdaq Composite, though Personal Savings Rate points the other way.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2012
$100K invested 2012-03 → today (14.3 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
What This Market Follows
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
Case-Shiller National Home Price leads by about 2 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.94). Shown shifted forward 2 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Why We Think This
Current Inventory Snapshot
Comparable Markets
| Market | Undervaluation | Appreciation | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ferrari 296 GTB/GTS | 54 | 58 | 45 |
| Ferrari 360 | 28 | 74 | 49 |
| Ferrari 360 Challenge Stradale | 0 | 80 | 54 |
| Ferrari 458 | 44 | 41 | 53 |
| Ferrari 458 Speciale | 6 | 77 | 53 |
| Ferrari 458 Speciale Aperta | 0 | 67 | 53 |
| Ferrari 488 | 36 | 63 | 48 |
| Ferrari 488 Pista | 10 | 36 | 47 |
Recent Signals & Alerts
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$537,000 vs prior
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-110,015 vs prior
- price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=-31.7)
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$128,450 vs prior
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-99,600 vs prior
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-110,000 vs prior
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.