Ford GT
Flagged undervalued because inventory -1%, and sell-through 97%.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 20 yr, 3k mi example, ~$536K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Did our model work? 76% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 111 scored forecasts: 76% got the direction right, median value error ±25%.
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard gavel in range 9 in 10
We replayed 383 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±11%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 9 in 10 of the time, and we lean slightly low on average.
| Sold | Car | Our range | Hammer | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-21 | 2005 · 0k mi | $338K–$735K | $802K | ✗ |
| 2026-09-18 | 2006 · 6k mi | $302K–$656K | $815K | ✗ |
| 2026-09-18 | 2006 · 19k mi | $269K–$585K | $540K | ✓ |
| 2026-08-29 | 2005 · 2k mi | $317K–$690K | $690K | ✗ |
| 2026-08-26 | 2005 · 5k mi | $309K–$672K | $685K | ✗ |
| 2026-08-24 | 2005 · 8k mi | $285K–$621K | $715K | ✗ |
| 2026-08-15 | 2006 · 12k mi | $273K–$594K | $600K | ✗ |
| 2026-08-14 | 2006 · 0k mi | $332K–$723K | $880K | ✗ |
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
| Horizon | Direction | Probability | Confidence | Past accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | DOWN | 46% | Low | 66% |
| 12 mo | UP | 56% | Low | 76% |
| 24 mo | UP | 58% | Low | 95% |
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling higher over the next ~12 months (low conviction — 31% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by Effective Fed Funds Rate and Silver, though Core CPI (ex food/energy) points the other way.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2012
$100K invested 2012-03 → today (14.6 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
What This Market Follows
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
PCE Price Index leads by about 6 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.98). Shown shifted forward 6 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Why We Think This
Current Inventory Snapshot
Comparable Markets
| Market | Undervaluation | Appreciation | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ferrari 296 GTB/GTS | 53 | 52 | 36 |
| Ferrari 360 | 21 | 84 | 50 |
| Ferrari 360 Challenge Stradale | 0 | 82 | 55 |
| Ferrari 458 | 25 | 68 | 40 |
| Ferrari 458 Speciale | 1 | 9 | 43 |
| Ferrari 458 Speciale Aperta | 0 | 69 | 24 |
| Ferrari 488 | 28 | 65 | 36 |
| Ferrari 488 Pista | 6 | 60 | 45 |
Recent Signals & Alerts
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-278,995 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$450,010 vs prior
- price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=-198.0)
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-278,995 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$450,010 vs prior
- price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=-198.0)
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.