BUILDINGStill gathering enough sold history to call this market.
Insufficient comps · 4 sold comps
Fair value$139K ($123K–$171K)
Typical ask$113K
Recent sold$176K
Current valueInsufficient
12-mo trendSlightly up · 6-in-10 up
Buyer: Too few confirmed sales to anchor a fair price — treat the number as a rough guide.
Seller: Thin sold history here; comparable sales are limited — price conservatively.
Watcher: Not enough confirmed sales yet — worth a watch as data accrues.
Showing appreciation momentum: sale prices +3.8%/mo, +18% vs 12-mo avg, and asking trend +0.0%/mo.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 27 yr, 42k mi example, ~$139K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
We're currently tracking 8 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
Closes
Car
Source
Our predicted range
open
2017 · 1k mi
ebay
$70.2K–$276K ($139K)
open
2023 · 29k mi
classic
$55.6K–$215K ($109K)
open
2025 · 4k mi
classic
$55.8K–$214K ($109K)
open
2020 · 9k mi
classic
$55.9K–$215K ($110K)
open
2013 · 119k mi
classic
$55.9K–$215K ($110K)
open
2020 · 60k mi
classic
$55.7K–$214K ($109K)
open
2023 · 36k mi
classic
$55.6K–$214K ($109K)
open
2016 · 98k mi
classic
$55.6K–$214K ($109K)
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
Horizon
Direction
Probability
Confidence
Past accuracy
6 mo
DOWN
44%
Low
50%
12 mo
UP
59%
Low
—
24 mo
UP
64%
Low
—
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
If You’d Bought in 2011
$100K invested 2011-03 → today (15.5 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
━ This car $1100K━ S&P 500 $687K━ Gold $304K━ Luxury $554K━ Housing $244K
A genuinely strong investment. The Mercedes-Benz G-Class roughly 11.0×'d your money (a real, inflation-adjusted 7.3× gain). It actually BEAT the S&P 500 by about 60%. It beat housing (+350%). (Price only — a real round-trip also loses ~10–20% to buy/sell fees and carrying costs.)
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
Bitcoin (USD) leads by about 6 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.79). Shown shifted forward 6 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Effective Fed Funds Rate leads by about 24 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.78). Shown shifted forward 24 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY) leads by about 5 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.78). Shown shifted forward 5 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Nonfarm Payrolls (jobs) leads by about 24 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.77). Shown shifted forward 24 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Trade-Weighted Dollar Index leads by about 14 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.76). Shown shifted forward 14 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Mercedes-Benz G-Class┄ Trade-Weighted Dollar Index, shifted +14mo
WTI Crude Oil leads by about 7 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.75). Shown shifted forward 7 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Russell 2000 (small cap) leads by about 4 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.75). Shown shifted forward 4 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Mercedes-Benz G-Class┄ Russell 2000 (small cap), shifted +4mo
Nasdaq Composite leads by about 5 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.74). Shown shifted forward 5 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.