Ford Econoline Van
Flagged undervalued because asking -44% vs historic sold, and inventory -1%.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 32 yr, 68k mi example, ~$9.4K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Did our model work? 60% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 52 scored forecasts: 60% got the direction right, median value error ±42%.
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard gavel in range 6 in 10
We replayed 59 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±38%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 6 in 10 of the time, and we lean slightly high on average.
| Sold | Car | Our range | Hammer | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-07 | 2002 · 53k mi | $6.8K–$19.8K | $34.3K | ✗ |
| 2026-06-23 | 2008 · 88k mi | $5.8K–$16.9K | $30.3K | ✗ |
| 2026-06-06 | 1967 · 27k mi | $6.7K–$19.5K | $4.1K | ✗ |
| 2026-06-04 | 1992 · 92k mi | $5.7K–$16.7K | $7.8K | ✓ |
| 2026-05-28 | 1994 · 93k mi | $5.8K–$16.8K | $12.7K | ✓ |
| 2026-05-17 | 1970 · 91k mi | $5.8K–$16.9K | $9.5K | ✓ |
| 2026-05-13 | 2007 · 35k mi | $7.5K–$21.7K | $73.7K | ✗ |
| 2026-04-10 | 1994 · 119k mi | $5.6K–$16.4K | $2.6K | ✗ |
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 8 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
| Closes | Car | Source | Our predicted range |
|---|---|---|---|
| open | 1990 · 34k mi | BaT | $5.5K–$21.5K ($10.9K) |
| open | 2005 · 72k mi | ebay | $4.7K–$18.3K ($9.3K) |
| open | 1973 · 86k mi | ebay | $4.4K–$17.3K ($8.8K) |
| open | 2011 · 267k mi | ebay | $3.1K–$11.9K ($6.0K) |
| open | 2013 · 74k mi | ebay | $4.7K–$18.1K ($9.2K) |
| open | 2011 · 267k mi | ebay | $3.0K–$11.9K ($6.0K) |
| open | 2007 · 39k mi | ebay | $5.8K–$22.6K ($11.5K) |
| open | 2006 · 79k mi | ebay | $4.6K–$17.6K ($9.0K) |
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
| Horizon | Direction | Probability | Confidence | Past accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | DOWN | 51% | Low | 64% |
| 12 mo | DOWN | 51% | Low | 60% |
| 24 mo | DOWN | 51% | Low | 53% |
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. Advance Retail Sales has historically led it by about 24 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling higher over the next ~12 months (high conviction — 100% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by Advance Retail Sales and Gold (futures).
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2013
$100K invested 2013-12 → today (12.7 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
What This Market Follows
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
High-Yield Bond Spread leads by about 2 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.54). Shown shifted forward 2 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Why We Think This
Current Inventory Snapshot
Comparable Markets
| Market | Undervaluation | Appreciation | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|
| Land Rover Defender 90 (Euro Spec) | 44 | 61 | 43 |
| Porsche Cayenne (958) 2011-2018 | 64 | 31 | 50 |
| Honda Acty | 50 | 53 | 57 |
| Subaru Baja | 59 | 45 | 49 |
| BMW F650GS | 45 | 42 | 36 |
| BMW R1250GS | 60 | 46 | 54 |
| Ford Bronco (2nd Generation) | 64 | 36 | 47 |
| Ford Bronco (3rd Generation, 1980-1986) | 61 | 57 | 30 |
Recent Signals & Alerts
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$4,000 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$4,000 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$4,000 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$4,000 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$4,000 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$4,000 vs prior
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.