Toyota FJ Cruiser
Flagged undervalued because asking -17% vs historic sold, -33% vs 2-yr avg, -33% vs 3-yr trend, and inventory +0%.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 15 yr, 83k mi example, ~$24.6K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Did our model work? 41% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 51 scored forecasts: 41% got the direction right, median value error ±31%.
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard gavel in range 9 in 10
We replayed 450 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±18%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 9 in 10 of the time, and we lean slightly high on average.
| Sold | Car | Our range | Hammer | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-29 | 2014 · 70k mi | $15.8K–$46.0K | $34.9K | ✓ |
| 2026-06-27 | 2008 · 81k mi | $14.4K–$41.9K | $22.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-06-22 | 2014 · 64k mi | $16.7K–$48.6K | $28.5K | ✓ |
| 2026-06-18 | 2013 · 63k mi | $16.8K–$48.8K | $33.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-06-13 | 2008 · 141k mi | $9.5K–$27.8K | $11.2K | ✓ |
| 2026-06-12 | 2014 · 8k mi | $22.7K–$66.0K | $51.6K | ✓ |
| 2026-06-08 | 2007 · 78k mi | $14.7K–$42.9K | $23.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-06-07 | 2014 · 80k mi | $14.5K–$42.2K | $30.5K | ✓ |
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 8 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
| Closes | Car | Source | Our predicted range |
|---|---|---|---|
| open | 2014 · 37k mi | classic | $15.8K–$60.5K ($30.9K) |
| open | 2007 · 51k mi | classic | $15.2K–$58.3K ($29.8K) |
| open | 2007 | C&B | $12.6K–$48.3K ($24.6K) |
| open | 2012 · 91k mi | classic | $11.8K–$45.3K ($23.1K) |
| open | 2013 · 107k mi | classic | $10.5K–$40.4K ($20.6K) |
| open | 2011 · 116k mi | classic | $9.9K–$37.8K ($19.3K) |
| open | 2007 · 122k mi | classic | $9.5K–$36.4K ($18.6K) |
| open | 2007 · 133k mi | classic | $8.9K–$34.1K ($17.4K) |
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
| Horizon | Direction | Probability | Confidence | Past accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | UP | 48% | Low | 53% |
| 12 mo | UP | 50% | Low | 41% |
| 24 mo | UP | 51% | Low | 41% |
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. Nasdaq Composite has historically led it by about 9 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
If You’d Bought in 2016
$100K invested 2016-01 → today (10.5 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
What This Market Follows
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
Nasdaq Composite leads by about 9 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.61). Shown shifted forward 9 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Why We Think This
Current Inventory Snapshot
Comparable Markets
| Market | Undervaluation | Appreciation | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|
| Land Rover Defender 90 (Euro Spec) | 44 | 57 | 47 |
| Porsche Cayenne (958) 2011-2018 | 66 | 33 | 51 |
| Honda Acty | 52 | 57 | 53 |
| Subaru Baja | 61 | 58 | 49 |
| BMW F650GS | 41 | 51 | 59 |
| BMW R1250GS | 53 | 33 | 51 |
| Ford Bronco (2nd Generation) | 50 | 29 | 34 |
| Ford Bronco (3rd Generation, 1980-1986) | 63 | 62 | 39 |
Recent Signals & Alerts
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$6,400 vs prior
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-5,000 vs prior
- undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
- price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=5.1)
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-3,230 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$4,500 vs prior
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.