Blended value of a standard 4 yr, 3k mi example, ~$321K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
◫ 31 confirmed sales·42 months tracked·since 2023-01·263 active listings
Auction Scorecard live
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 8 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
Closes
Car
Source
Our predicted range
open
2021 · 3k mi
classic
$199K–$574K ($338K)
open
2020 · 4k mi
classic
$195K–$564K ($332K)
open
2021 · 9k mi
classic
$183K–$529K ($311K)
open
2021 · 4k mi
classic
$194K–$560K ($330K)
open
2021 · 5k mi
classic
$191K–$551K ($324K)
open
2022 · 6k mi
classic
$189K–$544K ($320K)
open
2020 · 7k mi
classic
$187K–$540K ($318K)
open
2021 · 7k mi
classic
$187K–$538K ($317K)
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
Horizon
Direction
Probability
Confidence
Past accuracy
6 mo
DOWN
59%
Low
17%
12 mo
DOWN
57%
Low
—
24 mo
DOWN
57%
Low
—
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 4 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling higher over the next ~12 months (moderate conviction — 49% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by Bitcoin (USD) and Silver, though Silver points the other way.
⚠ The price trend and leading indicators disagree — momentum may be running ahead of the fundamentals.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2023
$100K invested 2023-01 → today (3.4 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
━ This car $87.3K━ S&P 500 $198K━ Gold $236K━ Luxury $71.4K━ Housing $113K₿ Bitcoin $299K (off-scale)
Lost ground to inflation. The Ferrari F8 Tributo roughly 0.9×'d your money (a real 21% LOSS to inflation). It LAGGED the stock market by about 56% — the same money in the S&P 500 would be larger. It trailed housing (-23%). (Price only — a real round-trip also loses ~10–20% to buy/sell fees and carrying costs.)
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
2-Year Treasury Yield leads by about 15 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.81). Shown shifted forward 15 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Ferrari F8 Tributo┄ 2-Year Treasury Yield, shifted +15mo
10-Year Treasury Yield leads by about 6 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.76). Shown shifted forward 6 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Ferrari F8 Tributo┄ 10-Year Treasury Yield, shifted +6mo
Unemployment Rate leads by about 20 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.76). Shown shifted forward 20 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Ferrari F8 Tributo┄ Unemployment Rate, shifted +20mo
Russell 2000 (small cap) leads by about 23 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.75). Shown shifted forward 23 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Ferrari F8 Tributo┄ Russell 2000 (small cap), shifted +23mo
Effective Fed Funds Rate leads by about 13 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.74). Shown shifted forward 13 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Ferrari F8 Tributo┄ Effective Fed Funds Rate, shifted +13mo
10Y-2Y Yield Spread leads by about 17 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.73). Shown shifted forward 17 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Ferrari F8 Tributo┄ 10Y-2Y Yield Spread, shifted +17mo
30-Year Mortgage Rate leads by about 5 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.73). Shown shifted forward 5 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Ferrari F8 Tributo┄ 30-Year Mortgage Rate, shifted +5mo
Personal Savings Rate leads by about 24 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.71). Shown shifted forward 24 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Ferrari F8 Tributo┄ Personal Savings Rate, shifted +24mo
vin returned higher VIN relisted +$52,129 vs prior
vin returned lower VIN relisted $-60,096 vs prior
vin returned higher VIN relisted +$52,129 vs prior
vin returned higher VIN relisted +$60,096 vs prior
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.