Tracking 14 sales in the last 90 days — the modeled signal will appear here on the next nightly rebuild.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 34 yr, 3k mi example, ~$4415K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 61 scored forecasts: 64% got the direction right, median value error ±28%.
━ actual╱ past predictions (ghosts)
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard gavel in range 9 in 10
We replayed 51 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±15%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 9 in 10 of the time, and we lean slightly low on average.
Sold
Car
Our range
Hammer
2026-08-15
1991 · 0k mi
$3928K–$8595K
$8365K
✓
2026-07-08
1990 · 14k mi
$2427K–$5309K
$4833K
✓
2026-05-16
1990 · 25k mi
$2207K–$4829K
$3448K
✓
2026-02-27
1992 · 1k mi
$3159K–$6912K
$5230K
✓
2026-01-17
1992 · 0k mi
$3207K–$7017K
$6600K
✓
2026-01-17
1992 · 1k mi
$3112K–$6809K
$5830K
✓
2025-12-05
1990 · 3k mi
$2498K–$5466K
$3886K
✓
2025-10-12
1991 · 12k mi
$1856K–$4062K
$3060K
✓
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling higher over the next ~12 months (high conviction — 100% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by Effective Fed Funds Rate and Core CPI (ex food/energy).
⚠ The price trend and leading indicators disagree — momentum may be running ahead of the fundamentals.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2006
$100K invested 2006-05 → today (20.3 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
━ This car $1452K━ S&P 500 $865K━ Gold $688K━ Luxury $1276K━ Housing $183K
A genuinely strong investment. The Ferrari F40 roughly 14.5×'d your money (a real, inflation-adjusted 8.8× gain). It actually BEAT the S&P 500 by about 68%. It beat housing (+695%). (Price only — a real round-trip also loses ~10–20% to buy/sell fees and carrying costs.)
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
Nasdaq Composite leads by about 12 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.80). Shown shifted forward 12 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Ferrari F40┄ Nasdaq Composite, shifted +12mo
Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY) leads by about 12 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.80). Shown shifted forward 12 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Ferrari F40┄ Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY), shifted +12mo
S&P 500 leads by about 8 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.80). Shown shifted forward 8 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Ferrari F40┄ S&P 500, shifted +8mo
Dow Jones Industrial leads by about 12 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.79). Shown shifted forward 12 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Ferrari F40┄ Dow Jones Industrial, shifted +12mo
Gold (futures) leads by about 18 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.79). Shown shifted forward 18 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Ferrari F40┄ Gold (futures), shifted +18mo
Bitcoin (USD) leads by about 12 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.79). Shown shifted forward 12 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Ferrari F40┄ Bitcoin (USD), shifted +12mo
Russell 2000 (small cap) leads by about 9 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.78). Shown shifted forward 9 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Ferrari F40┄ Russell 2000 (small cap), shifted +9mo
M2 Money Supply leads by about 1 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.77). Shown shifted forward 1 months so its turns line up with the market's.
━ Ferrari F40┄ M2 Money Supply, shifted +1mo
Why We Think This
+102% vs 3-yr trendpct vs trailing 36mo
+93% vs 2-yr avgpct vs trailing 24mo
asking -4% vs historic soldasking vs historic spread
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.