Ferrari F40
This is a rare market — roughly 8.5 sale per year documented since 2004 (187 total across all sources).
Tracking 3 sales in the last 90 days. We'll publish a confident 12-month outlook once 2 more sales close — at this market's typical pace, that's roughly ~3 months.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 34 yr, 3k mi example, ~$4459K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Did our model work? 64% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 61 scored forecasts: 64% got the direction right, median value error ±28%.
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard gavel in range 9 in 10
We replayed 51 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±16%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 9 in 10 of the time, and we lean slightly low on average.
| Sold | Car | Our range | Hammer | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-15 | 1991 · 0k mi | $4013K–$8732K | $8365K | ✓ |
| 2026-07-08 | 1990 · 14k mi | $2598K–$5653K | $4833K | ✓ |
| 2026-05-16 | 1990 · 25k mi | $2311K–$5030K | $3448K | ✓ |
| 2026-02-27 | 1992 · 1k mi | $3125K–$6799K | $5230K | ✓ |
| 2026-01-17 | 1992 · 0k mi | $3156K–$6867K | $6600K | ✓ |
| 2026-01-17 | 1992 · 1k mi | $3065K–$6669K | $5830K | ✓ |
| 2025-12-05 | 1990 · 3k mi | $2483K–$5403K | $3886K | ✓ |
| 2025-10-12 | 1991 · 12k mi | $1895K–$4123K | $3060K | ✓ |
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling higher over the next ~12 months (low conviction — 33% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by Effective Fed Funds Rate and Core CPI (ex food/energy), though Initial Jobless Claims points the other way.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2006
$100K invested 2006-05 → today (20.4 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
What This Market Follows
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
Nasdaq Composite leads by about 12 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.80). Shown shifted forward 12 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Why We Think This
Current Inventory Snapshot
Comparable Markets
| Market | Undervaluation | Appreciation | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ferrari 296 GTB/GTS | 53 | 52 | 36 |
| Ferrari 360 | 21 | 84 | 50 |
| Ferrari 360 Challenge Stradale | 0 | 82 | 55 |
| Ferrari 458 | 25 | 68 | 40 |
| Ferrari 458 Speciale | 1 | 9 | 43 |
| Ferrari 458 Speciale Aperta | 0 | 69 | 24 |
| Ferrari 488 | 28 | 65 | 36 |
| Ferrari 488 Pista | 6 | 60 | 45 |
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.