Ford F-150 Raptor
Flagged undervalued because -4% vs 2-yr avg, sell-through 86%, and inventory -0%.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 6 yr, 22k mi example, ~$52.9K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Did our model work? 75% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 4 scored forecasts: 75% got the direction right, median value error ±11%.
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard live
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 8 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
| Closes | Car | Source | Our predicted range |
|---|---|---|---|
| open | 2024 · 12k mi | ebay | $31.0K–$122K ($61.5K) |
| open | 2024 · 12k mi | ebay | $30.9K–$122K ($61.3K) |
| open | 2025 · 3k mi | ebay | $33.2K–$130K ($65.8K) |
| open | 2025 · 3k mi | ebay | $33.1K–$130K ($65.6K) |
| open | 2024 · 35k mi | ebay | $24.4K–$95.9K ($48.4K) |
| open | 2025 · 3k mi | ebay | $33.1K–$130K ($65.6K) |
| open | 2024 · 12k mi | ebay | $31.0K–$122K ($61.5K) |
| open | 2024 · 35k mi | ebay | $24.4K–$95.8K ($48.4K) |
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
| Horizon | Direction | Probability | Confidence | Past accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | DOWN | 59% | Low | 60% |
| 12 mo | DOWN | 61% | Low | 75% |
| 24 mo | DOWN | 64% | Low | — |
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
If You’d Bought in 2022
$100K invested 2022-03 → today (4.5 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
What This Market Follows
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
Case-Shiller National Home Price leads by about 4 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.63). Shown shifted forward 4 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Why We Think This
Current Inventory Snapshot
Comparable Markets
| Market | Undervaluation | Appreciation | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|
| Land Rover Defender 90 (Euro Spec) | 54 | 53 | 44 |
| Porsche Cayenne (958) 2011-2018 | 57 | 42 | 49 |
| Honda Acty | 52 | 40 | 56 |
| Subaru Baja | 44 | 68 | 52 |
| BMW F650GS | 86 | 8 | 55 |
| BMW R1250GS | 52 | 33 | 44 |
| Ford Bronco (2nd Generation) | 57 | 49 | 60 |
| Ford Bronco (3rd Generation, 1980-1986) | 65 | 39 | 47 |
Recent Signals & Alerts
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$6,838 vs prior
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-8,195 vs prior
- undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$6,838 vs prior
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-8,195 vs prior
- undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.