Ford Excursion
Flagged undervalued because asking -52% vs historic sold.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 22 yr, 131k mi example, ~$17.9K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Did our model work? 54% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 39 scored forecasts: 54% got the direction right, median value error ±19%.
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard gavel in range 8 in 10
We replayed 384 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±29%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 8 in 10 of the time, and we lean slightly high on average.
| Sold | Car | Our range | Hammer | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-28 | 2001 · 165k mi | $10.3K–$29.5K | $15.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-05-27 | 2003 · 98k mi | $13.0K–$37.3K | $30.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-05-26 | 2002 · 96k mi | $13.1K–$37.7K | $39.5K | ✗ |
| 2026-05-26 | 2003 · 200k mi | $9.1K–$26.2K | $10.9K | ✓ |
| 2026-05-19 | 2000 · 87k mi | $13.8K–$39.5K | $16.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-05-18 | 2001 · 89k mi | $13.6K–$39.1K | $33.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-05-15 | 2005 · 7k mi | $17.2K–$49.2K | $108K | ✗ |
| 2026-05-09 | 2000 · 111k mi | $12.3K–$35.4K | $19.5K | ✓ |
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 8 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
| Closes | Car | Source | Our predicted range |
|---|---|---|---|
| open | 2005 | BaT | $9.2K–$34.8K ($17.9K) |
| open | 2001 · 87k mi | ebay | $10.9K–$41.1K ($21.2K) |
| open | 2002 | BaT | $9.2K–$34.9K ($18.0K) |
| open | 2001 | C&B | $9.2K–$34.9K ($18.0K) |
| open | 2005 | BaT | $9.4K–$35.4K ($18.2K) |
| open | 2001 | BaT | $9.4K–$35.4K ($18.2K) |
| open | 2005 · 251k mi | classic | $6.5K–$24.4K ($12.6K) |
| open | 2001 · 314k mi | ebay | $6.5K–$24.4K ($12.6K) |
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
| Horizon | Direction | Probability | Confidence | Past accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | DOWN | 53% | Low | 60% |
| 12 mo | DOWN | 53% | Low | 54% |
| 24 mo | DOWN | 53% | Low | 41% |
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. Trade-Weighted Dollar Index has historically led it by about 3 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling higher over the next ~12 months (high conviction — 75% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by Trade-Weighted Dollar Index and Housing Starts, though Russell 2000 (small cap) points the other way.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2013
$100K invested 2013-04 → today (13.2 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
What This Market Follows
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
Trade-Weighted Dollar Index leads by about 3 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.53). Shown shifted forward 3 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Why We Think This
Current Inventory Snapshot
Comparable Markets
| Market | Undervaluation | Appreciation | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|
| Land Rover Defender 90 (Euro Spec) | 41 | 67 | 47 |
| Porsche Cayenne (958) 2011-2018 | 52 | 60 | 52 |
| Honda Acty | 53 | 43 | 50 |
| Subaru Baja | 53 | 68 | 51 |
| BMW R1250GS | 61 | 36 | 75 |
| Ford Bronco (2nd Generation) | 36 | 51 | 41 |
| Ford Bronco (3rd Generation, 1980-1986) | 70 | 38 | 31 |
Recent Signals & Alerts
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-12,530 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$32,495 vs prior
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-29,519 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$7,745 vs prior
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-12,530 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$12,500 vs prior
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.