Ford Excursion
Flagged undervalued because asking -51% vs historic sold, -53% vs 2-yr avg, -57% vs 3-yr trend, and inventory -0%.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 22 yr, 131k mi example, ~$17.7K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Did our model work? 45% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 80 scored forecasts: 45% got the direction right, median value error ±41%.
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard gavel in range 7 in 10
We replayed 418 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±30%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 7 in 10 of the time, and we lean slightly high on average.
| Sold | Car | Our range | Hammer | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | 2001 · 154k mi | $9.7K–$28.1K | $10.8K | ✓ |
| 2026-08-28 | 2001 · 133k mi | $10.5K–$30.5K | $41.0K | ✗ |
| 2026-08-20 | 2002 · 172k mi | $9.0K–$26.3K | $20.5K | ✓ |
| 2026-08-19 | 2000 · 135k mi | $10.4K–$30.3K | $40.3K | ✗ |
| 2026-08-14 | 2000 · 58k mi | $14.3K–$41.6K | $65.0K | ✗ |
| 2026-08-13 | 2002 · 297k mi | $7.0K–$20.4K | $27.0K | ✗ |
| 2026-08-11 | 2005 · 75k mi | $13.6K–$39.5K | $57.0K | ✗ |
| 2026-08-11 | 2001 · 326k mi | $7.0K–$20.4K | $2.8K | ✗ |
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 8 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
| Closes | Car | Source | Our predicted range |
|---|---|---|---|
| open | 2002 · 212k mi | ebay | $6.6K–$25.6K ($13.0K) |
| open | 2003 · 224k mi | BaT | $6.3K–$24.7K ($12.5K) |
| open | 2000 · 124k mi | BaT | $9.1K–$35.6K ($18.0K) |
| open | 2001 | C&B | $9.0K–$35.1K ($17.8K) |
| open | 2002 · 313k mi | ebay | $5.8K–$22.8K ($11.6K) |
| open | 2005 · 115k mi | ebay | $9.6K–$37.4K ($18.9K) |
| open | 2005 · 115k mi | ebay | $9.7K–$37.8K ($19.1K) |
| open | 2000 · 121k mi | ebay | $9.4K–$36.9K ($18.7K) |
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
| Horizon | Direction | Probability | Confidence | Past accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | UP | 50% | Low | 53% |
| 12 mo | UP | 51% | Low | 45% |
| 24 mo | UP | 51% | Low | 40% |
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. High-Yield Bond Spread has historically led it by about 11 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling lower over the next ~12 months (high conviction — 78% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by Ethereum (USD) and LVMH (luxury proxy ADR), though 10-Year Treasury Yield points the other way.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2013
$100K invested 2013-03 → today (13.5 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
What This Market Follows
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
High-Yield Bond Spread leads by about 11 months (moves against this market, correlation 0.90). Shown shifted forward 11 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Why We Think This
Current Inventory Snapshot
Comparable Markets
| Market | Undervaluation | Appreciation | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|
| Land Rover Defender 90 (Euro Spec) | 50 | 59 | 42 |
| Porsche Cayenne (958) 2011-2018 | 33 | 68 | 49 |
| Honda Acty | 51 | 50 | 56 |
| Subaru Baja | 62 | 41 | 53 |
| BMW F650GS | 66 | 25 | 39 |
| BMW R1250GS | 53 | 43 | 36 |
| Ford Bronco (2nd Generation) | 64 | 36 | 49 |
| Ford Bronco (3rd Generation, 1980-1986) | 61 | 50 | 45 |
Recent Signals & Alerts
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$17,393 vs prior
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-5,000 vs prior
- undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
- price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=-5.9)
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$3,301 vs prior
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-5,000 vs prior
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.