Ford Excursion
Flagged undervalued because asking -49% vs historic sold, -2% vs 3-yr trend, -2% vs 2-yr avg, and sell-through 88%.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 22 yr, 131k mi example, ~$17.4K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Did our model work? 49% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 81 scored forecasts: 49% got the direction right, median value error ±38%.
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard gavel in range 7 in 10
We replayed 425 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±31%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 7 in 10 of the time, and we lean slightly high on average.
| Sold | Car | Our range | Hammer | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-20 | 2002 · 38k mi | $14.3K–$41.4K | $22.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-09-19 | 2000 · 54k mi | $14.3K–$41.4K | $69.5K | ✗ |
| 2026-09-16 | 2005 · 235k mi | $7.3K–$21.3K | $18.9K | ✓ |
| 2026-09-15 | 2003 · 303k mi | $7.1K–$20.6K | $8.7K | ✓ |
| 2026-09-10 | 2003 · 224k mi | $7.6K–$21.9K | $30.0K | ✗ |
| 2026-09-09 | 2000 · 124k mi | $10.8K–$31.4K | $16.8K | ✓ |
| 2026-09-08 | 2001 · 210k mi | $7.9K–$22.8K | $12.6K | ✓ |
| 2026-09-01 | 2001 · 154k mi | $9.5K–$27.5K | $10.8K | ✓ |
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 8 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
| Closes | Car | Source | Our predicted range |
|---|---|---|---|
| open | 2000 · 286k mi | BaT | $5.9K–$23.4K ($11.8K) |
| open | 2001 · 140k mi | BaT | $8.3K–$32.8K ($16.5K) |
| open | 2001 | C&B | $8.8K–$34.7K ($17.5K) |
| open | 2001 · 373k mi | ebay | $5.9K–$23.4K ($11.8K) |
| open | 2005 · 115k mi | ebay | $9.7K–$37.8K ($19.1K) |
| open | 2003 · 241k mi | ebay | $6.1K–$23.8K ($12.1K) |
| open | 2000 · 226k mi | ebay | $6.4K–$24.8K ($12.6K) |
| open | 2000 · 230k mi | ebay | $6.4K–$24.7K ($12.6K) |
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
| Horizon | Direction | Probability | Confidence | Past accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | UP | 50% | Low | 57% |
| 12 mo | UP | 51% | Low | 49% |
| 24 mo | UP | 52% | Low | 43% |
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
If You’d Bought in 2013
$100K invested 2013-03 → today (13.6 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
What This Market Follows
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
LVMH (luxury proxy ADR) leads by about 7 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.59). Shown shifted forward 7 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Why We Think This
Current Inventory Snapshot
Comparable Markets
| Market | Undervaluation | Appreciation | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|
| Land Rover Defender 90 (Euro Spec) | 54 | 50 | 45 |
| Porsche Cayenne (958) 2011-2018 | 59 | 41 | 47 |
| Honda Acty | 44 | 51 | 57 |
| Subaru Baja | 54 | 61 | 51 |
| BMW F650GS | 89 | 7 | 50 |
| BMW R1250GS | 54 | 39 | 49 |
| Ford Bronco (2nd Generation) | 63 | 35 | 55 |
| Ford Bronco (3rd Generation, 1980-1986) | 51 | 61 | 41 |
Recent Signals & Alerts
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$7,400 vs prior
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-5,500 vs prior
- undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-5,500 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$11,245 vs prior
- undisclosed title change VIN previously reported non-clean now listed clean/undisclosed
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.