Ford Excursion
Flagged undervalued because asking -46% vs historic sold, -54% vs 2-yr avg, -58% vs 3-yr trend, and inventory -0%.
What It's Actually Worth
Blended value of a standard 22 yr, 131k mi example, ~$17.5K now. The green line weighs confirmed auction sales most heavily (the amber dots — what cars actually hammered for), blends in fast-selling "just-missed" listings, and lightly smooths out month-to-month composition noise.
Did our model work? 41% direction calls right
Each faint amber line is a forecast we would have made at that point in the past (12-mo horizon), drawn against what actually happened (blue). Over 78 scored forecasts: 41% got the direction right, median value error ±41%.
Walk-forward: each ghost uses only data available at that date — no hindsight. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Auction Scorecard gavel in range 7 in 10
We replayed 402 past auctions in this market — predicting each hammer price from market data before the sale (no hindsight). Typical miss: ±30%; the gavel landed inside our predicted range 7 in 10 of the time, and we lean slightly high on average.
| Sold | Car | Our range | Hammer | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-16 | 2000 · 109k mi | $11.7K–$34.0K | $31.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-07-15 | 2001 · 154k mi | $9.4K–$27.4K | $9.3K | ✗ |
| 2026-07-09 | 2005 · 119k mi | $11.1K–$32.2K | $29.3K | ✓ |
| 2026-07-06 | 2000 · 251k mi | $7.4K–$21.6K | $4.0K | ✗ |
| 2026-07-02 | 2002 · 200k mi | $8.3K–$24.0K | $10.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-06-30 | 2005 · 115k mi | $12.0K–$34.9K | $27.3K | ✓ |
| 2026-06-23 | 2002 · 155k mi | $10.0K–$28.9K | $20.0K | ✓ |
| 2026-06-20 | 2001 · 159k mi | $9.8K–$28.6K | $11.3K | ✓ |
Live now — calling it before the gavel
We're currently tracking 8 open auctions in this market. Here's our predicted hammer range for each — check back after they close.
| Closes | Car | Source | Our predicted range |
|---|---|---|---|
| open | 2003 · 163k mi | ebay | $7.7K–$29.7K ($15.1K) |
| open | 2000 · 230k mi | ebay | $6.5K–$25.0K ($12.7K) |
| open | 2001 · 57k mi | classic | $12.4K–$47.7K ($24.3K) |
| open | 2001 · 182k mi | classic | $7.3K–$28.1K ($14.3K) |
| open | 2004 · 209k mi | classic | $6.8K–$26.2K ($13.3K) |
| open | 2004 · 308k mi | classic | $6.2K–$24.1K ($12.3K) |
| open | 2000 · 343k mi | ebay | $6.2K–$24.1K ($12.3K) |
| open | 2004 · 121k mi | ebay | $9.3K–$35.6K ($18.1K) |
No-lookahead: predictions are made before each auction closes; the scorecard grades confirmed sold auctions only (no-sales excluded). A modeled estimate, not a guarantee. Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Where We Think It's Headed
Probability and range, not a single number. Wider = less certain (not bigger gains).
| Horizon | Direction | Probability | Confidence | Past accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | UP | 50% | Low | 54% |
| 12 mo | UP | 51% | Low | 41% |
| 24 mo | UP | 52% | Low | 39% |
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.
Lead Indicator Forecast
Some indicators move before this market does. Ethereum (USD) has historically led it by about 1 months — so its recent move implies where prices head next (dashed). The solid green line is actual value through today; the shaded path is what the lead implies.
Crystal Ball — What Leading Indicators Signal
Distinct from the trend forecast above: this blends all 8 leading indicators (each at its own lead time, de-duplicated so correlated ones don't double-count) into one signal. Leading indicators are collectively signaling lower over the next ~12 months (moderate conviction — 55% of weighted drivers agree), driven mainly by Ethereum (USD) and LVMH (luxury proxy ADR), though High-Yield Bond Spread points the other way.
Are the indicators agreeing?
Each bar is one driver's current push; longer = more weight. All one side = high conviction; split = low.
If You’d Bought in 2013
$100K invested 2013-03 → today (13.3 yrs), this car vs where else you could've put the money. Rebased to 100 at the start; the dashed line is inflation (break-even).
What This Market Follows
Specialty-car prices don't move in a vacuum. These economic indicators have historically led this market — tap one to see it shifted forward by its lead time, overlaid on the value line.
Ethereum (USD) leads by about 1 months (moves with this market, correlation 0.64). Shown shifted forward 1 months so its turns line up with the market's.
Why We Think This
Current Inventory Snapshot
Comparable Markets
| Market | Undervaluation | Appreciation | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|
| Land Rover Defender 90 (Euro Spec) | 43 | 58 | 46 |
| Porsche Cayenne (958) 2011-2018 | 65 | 33 | 52 |
| Honda Acty | 52 | 53 | 52 |
| Subaru Baja | 65 | 48 | 51 |
| BMW F650GS | 38 | 48 | 51 |
| BMW R1250GS | 56 | 39 | 50 |
| Ford Bronco (2nd Generation) | 53 | 34 | 29 |
| Ford Bronco (3rd Generation, 1980-1986) | 61 | 59 | 37 |
Recent Signals & Alerts
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$37,000 vs prior
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-5,000 vs prior
- price jump Median asking moved sharply (z=-5.0)
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-6,100 vs prior
- vin returned higher VIN relisted +$8,000 vs prior
- vin returned lower VIN relisted $-4,000 vs prior
Data-backed market intelligence, not a guaranteed prediction. Figures are modeled estimates from asking prices, sold comps, and public economic indicators; they can be wrong. Not financial advice.